Bill Proenza named new NHC director; new typhoon for Philippines?
We don't know him yet, but soon the face and voice of Bill Proenza will become a familiar part of our hurricane experience. As reported by Wunderblogger Margie Kieper in her View From the Surface blog yesterday, the new director of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is Bill Proenza, 62, a 40-year veteran of the National Weather Service (NWS). Bill currently serves as director of the NWS Southern region, which includes hurricane-prone Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Texas, and Puerto Rico. He certainly has the experience, knowledge, and connections to make a great NHC Director, and I wish Bill the best of luck in this most demanding of meteorology jobs!
New NHC Director Bill Proenza. Image credit: NOAA.
New typhoon for the Philippines?
A new typhoon is brewing in the waters to the east of the Philippine Islands. Tropical Storm Utor (named after the Marshallese word for "squall line") has the potential to grow to typhoon strength before it makes landfall in the central Philippines Saturday. The storm is under only 5 knots of vertical wind shear, and satellite imagery from the Navy NRL web site shows a large, well-organized system with excellent upper-level outflow, impressive spiral banding, and a steadily consolidating area of heavy thunderstorms near the center. Utor is organizing closer to the Philippines than Durian did, and is moving more rapidly--15 mph. This likely means the storm does not have enough time to grow into a super typhoon like Durian did. Even if Utor does become a major typhoon, its fast forward speed means it will not have enough time over the islands to dump the kind of heavy rains that would cause significant loss of life. The typhoon-weary Philippines could sure use a break! The toll in the islands from Typhoon Durian stands at 1316 dead or missing, 1,933 injured, 80,000 homes destroyed, and 167,000 homes damaged. The estimated $600 million in damage is the highest ever for a Philippines typhoon, and the death toll is the 4th highest. The typhoon killed 105 people in its sweep past southern Vietnam, mostly due to high winds that collapsed buildings. Durian destroyed or damaged over 212,000 homes in Vietnam, and sank 808 fishing boats.
Bill Gray's 2007 hurricane season forecast
Friday, I'll review Bill Gray's 2007 hurricane season forecast, scheduled to be released late in the morning.
Jeff Masters
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not sure if ya'll saw this or not.....
"A return to high hurricane activity in 2007 will likely follow the below-average 2006 hurricane season, according to climate forecaster Tropical Storm Risk (TSR).
TSR says a 76% likelihood exists that U.S. land-falling hurricane activity in 2007 will fall among the top one-third of years historically.
The study was led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at College University London. Some of TSR's long-range hurricane predictions include:
• a 79% probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 15% probability of a near-normal season and only a 6% chance of a below-normal season;
• 16 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with nine of these being hurricanes and four intense hurricanes; and
• five tropical storm strikes on the U.S., two of which will be hurricanes.
One factor influencing TSR's 2007 hurricane forecast includes the expected values in August and September for the speed of trade winds that blow westward across the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea.
In addition, the temperatures of the seawaters between West Africa and the Caribbean, where many of the hurricanes develop, will play a role.
TSR lead scientist Mark Saunders noted that "the 2006 hurricane season is atypical of years since 1950 and should not reflect badly on the general capability of forecasts.
"The below-average 2006 hurricane season was due to the presence of considerable African dry air and Saharan dust during August and September, which inhibited thunderstorm occurrence and therefore tropical storm development," TSR noted.
Also, TSR pointed to the unexpected onset of El Niño conditions from mid-September. "There is no precedent for these factors together having been so influential before"
Hope everybody has a safe and happy holidays! :)
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Suttle launch is resceduled for 8:47 p.m. EST Saturday.
Friday, December 08, 2006 - 03:22 PM
FORT COLLINS, Colo.
The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should have above-average activity, a top hurricane researcher said Friday.
Colorado State forecaster William Gray predicted 14 named storms next year, including three major hurricanes and four other hurricanes.
Gray and fellow researcher Philip Klotzbach said fewer hurricanes are likely to make landfall compared to last year, which had the busiest and most destructive hurricane season on record.
It had 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes, four of which hit the U.S. The worst of those was Katrina, which leveled parts of the Gulf Coast.
This year´s season had nine named storms and five hurricanes, two of them major. That was considered a "near normal" season but fell short of predictions by Gray and government scientists.
No hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast in 2006 _ only the 11th time that has occurred since 1945.
Gray´s team said a late-developing El Nino contributed to the calmer 2006 season but that those conditions are likely to dissipate before the next June-to-November season.
"Despite a fairly inactive 2006 hurricane season, we believe that the Atlantic basin is in an active hurricane cycle," Gray said. The active cycle is expected to continue for another decade or two, he said.
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