Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

State of U.S. global warming efforts: Business as Usual
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:49 GMT le 24 janvier 2007 +3
President Bush spoke of "the serious challenge of global climate change" in his State of the Union speech last night, and called for the U.S. to reduce gasoline consumption 20 percent over the next 10 years. The reduction in gasoline consumption would primarily be achieved through promotion of alternative fuels such as ethanol and liquefied coal. While it is a pleasant change to hear the president acknowledge the reality of the climate change problem and to propose measures that could significantly reduce U.S. consumption of foreign oil, his proposals do virtually nothing to combat global warming.

About one third of greenhouse gases emissions in the the U.S. come from cars and trucks. Thus, a 20% cut in gasoline consumption would reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by about 6%, at best. Since a large portion of the gasoline reduction would come from liquefied coal--which, when burned, makes double the CO2 of burning gasoline--even this modest 6% decrease in emissions might end up at zero. The President offered no plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from electric utilities or industry, whose emissions will continue to grow at about 2% per year. Overall, greenhouse gas emission will grow by 14% over the next decade under the President's plan, according to Philip Clapp, president of the National Environmental Trust. The consensus among most climate scientists is that emission of greenhouse gases must be radically cut 50-60% globally by 2050 in order to avoid dangerous levels of global warming. The President's business-as-usual plan to allow emissions to increase by 14% over the next decade will make it extremely difficult to achieve that goal, as the U.S. contributes about 25% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Change
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302. Patrap 13:07 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Viva Le revolution!
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111329
304. Patrap 13:09 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Thats not cool at all Pattunnel...
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305. Patrap 13:09 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Ill ask u once to refrain from that..Only once
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307. ProgressivePulse 13:14 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Much Needed Rain! Whoo Hoo!
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308. Patrap 13:19 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Your time here is not long Pat...your a child..nothing more.Youll be gone and we will be here...
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309. Patrap 13:20 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Your rants are History soon..and with that..you can just..fadeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee away ....LOL
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311. Patrap 13:29 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Nope..I was A Marine..
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312. Patrap 13:30 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
and Marines dont die Until ordered to die.Then we go straight to Heaven to Guard the Streets.We did OUR time in Hell...or in my case..Listening to you!
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313. Patrap 13:31 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Now with that..wassup?
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314. Patrap 13:32 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
The Cold as shown by the 10 day GFSx...Link
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316. orionRider 13:36 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
sxwarren,
The European solution is subtly different... Instead of offering a rebate, fuel prices are artificially inflated, with taxes bringing a gallon at more than $6. As a byproduct, people tend to buy smaller, fuel-efficient cars.
Here is one example of a very popular European car: Link

Even this economical vehicle could do better by reducing weight, power and unnecessary gadgets.
Throw away air conditioning, power windows and many metal parts. Reduce the 110MPH top speed to a more reasonable 90MPH and you could move it around at a stunning 80mpg.

All it takes is political will.
317. ricderr 13:37 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
the typical driver at 14,000 miles per year....changing from a 20 mpg SUV or truck to a 33 mpg car..would realize a savings of 1000 dollars per year.....easilly enough to rent a van from ryder at 20 bucks a day the times you need to haul something
Member Since: 27 juin 2006 Posts: 626 Comments: 18069
318. orionRider 13:43 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
...would realize a savings of 1000 dollars per year...

Much more!
Small economical cars cost only a fraction of the price of SUV's. You have to take that into account as well.
319. snowboy 14:30 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
President Bush has cemented his worldwide reputation as an utter failure as the leader of your great nation.

The switch to ethanol is going drive up corn prices worldwide, and rob some of the world's poorest peoples of a staple food as they will not be able to compete with the American subsidized ethanol industry.

Liquified coal is an environmental nightmare, and actually increases greenhouse gas emissions!

As others have in part pointed out, the only way to go re vehicle emissions is some combination of:
- tighter fuel efficiency standards for the ENTIRE vehicle fleet (no more SUV exemptions!),
- fuel taxes,
- slower speed limits,
- rebates for fuel efficient vehicles.

Then there are all the other sources of carbon emissions, which the President managed to overlook entirely..
Member Since: 21 septembre 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2546
320. grimmdogg23 14:46 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Will Communists and opponents of free markets never learn? If I want to drive my SUV around at 20 mpg that is my right. You guys can go drive around those little cracker boxes. Also, please don't respond with the hybrid SUV's and trucks argument. The difference in gas mileage is neglible at best for the overall price difference.
Member Since: 14 juillet 2005 Posts: 56 Comments: 872
321. orionRider 14:51 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Some even consider driving on... compressed air!
Link

More about the car (french): Link
Air car

The air car does really work, but its efficiency is very low because of all the losses occurring between the power station and the actual movement of the car.
This car is really 'clean' only if the air is compressed by zero-emissions means (water, sun, wind, nuclear, geothermal, etc.).
Anyway it would be a good way of using the nighttime production of electricity that is currently wasted.

322. grimmdogg23 14:52 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Snowboy, I understand the president did not live up to your global warming iniative. However, global warming is not a new idea and did not just pop up during his presidency. What did Bill Clinton ever do to try to squash the problem before it became more pertinent? While I don't support the President in much that he is doing a lot of people want to place blame for everything on him. I still get a kick out of how people think the President really runs the country and his word is final. Let me clue you in on who really runs our country. BUREAUCRATS.
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323. ricderr 14:53 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
orion...if i want to polp down 30 thou for an SUV...i'm probably going to plop that 30 into something smaller with better mpg....



grimm....if..it should be proven that your driving that land yacht is damaging to the same planet i share...then...i damn well will make a big deal about it...
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324. snowboy 14:58 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
grimmdogg23, folks like yourself are mighty big on their rights - is there any room in your world view for the notion that citizenship in the most powerful nation on earth brings with it not only rights but responsibilities?

And let's lay off the name-calling please, ok?
Member Since: 21 septembre 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2546
325. orionRider 15:00 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
If I want to drive my SUV around at 20 mpg that is my right.

Science has nothing to do with communism. Global means Amsterdam, Johannesburg, Bangkok but also Vancouver, Detroit and New Orleans...
Wherever you live, you will not be spared.
Even if you don't care about others, at least you should care about yourself.
326. hurricane23 15:02 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Good morning,

Just wanted to post a radar view of some very welcomed rain for southeast florida.Nothing severe but rain is indeed welcomed as we have been pretty dry down here.Cool temps to follow.

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327. grimmdogg23 15:09 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
I am sorry you are trying to sell a bill of goods that I am not buying. First off, how will they get rid of our SUVs? The government will intervene and come up with some convoluted law. If my SUV that I own and owe no money on becomes illegal to drive in the next few years who is going to buy me a new car. They certainly are not going to do a trade in on a car that is no longer useful. And don't even get me started on the costs to convert my SUV to a hybrid. The fact of the matter is what you are proposing can never be attained until new sources of energy are found. You cannot just take away peoples belongings and free choices with hardly any alternatives from which to choose. I am sure that some of you also believe the government should step in and start legislating what people eat, or if they smoke (like they haven't started doing that already), or if they consume alcohol. I know they are apples and oranges but when will it end. Big government is never a good thing. The bigger government expands in your day to day life the closer you are walking the line towards Communism.
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328. mrpuertorico 15:17 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
very nice radar image 23 like alot
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329. snowboy 15:32 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
nice try at changing the subject grimmdogg23, but it won't fly..
- tell me again, does your world view have any room in it for responsibilities on your part or do you only have rights?
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330. hurricane23 15:35 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Current surface map shows area area of low pressure.All activity around the area should be slow to clear come rush hour but indeed improving by late afternoon.

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331. grimmdogg23 15:38 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
I have the rights that were granted to me that were posed in the Constitution. We do not have a world government. If we ever do, then yikes. Also, I did not try and change the subject. I stuck to the SUV argument. I just added the ingredients for big government and Communism. You did a good job of dodging my comments.
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332. snowboy 15:49 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
grimmdogg23, so your world view leaves no room for responsibilities - a sad commentary on our times, on your country, and on you personally. Not much point discussing this further, as you seem to lack the necessary moral and ethical foundation (let alone the scientific understanding) to even grasp why you should think about making changes in your life..
Member Since: 21 septembre 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 2546
333. hurricane23 15:53 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Almost here!

Animated radar view
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334. grimmdogg23 16:10 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Snowboy, I knew you would play this card. You are what I would like to call an elitist. You have an arrogant attitude and think your viewpoint is the only way. You resort to saying my country is sad, my opinion is sad, and I have no moral leanings. I guess you are the measuring stick for which my standard should reach. I do not have to justify my stance to you. I have been afforded rights in my country's Constitution. I also love how you keep dodging the argument about traveling a road toward Communism with big government. I believe we should keep our planet clean and do whatever we can do within reason. However, you do know your figureheads that argue for global warming are not beyond reach. Take for instance Al Gore. During his premier of An Inconvenient Truth he flies around in his private jet back and forth countries burning highly concentrated jet fuel like candy. He burns more dangerous by products in that excursion than my little Explorer and hundreds like it can burn in their lifetime. But somehow that is okay, right? He is not alone either. Ask people do give up flying. Ask people to give up owning motor boats. Ask people to stop eating meat. Ask people to stop consuming industrialized products. All of these contribute to global warming as well. You and I both know it will not stop at cars. It will just be a stepping stone to move on to something else.
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335. weatherboykris 16:13 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
see my blog on info on the SFL cold front.
Member Since: 9 décembre 2006 Posts: 125 Comments: 11343
336. hurricane23 16:21 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Cool temps indeed!

TEMPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
THE LAKE AREA AND FALL WELL INTO THE 60S SE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD...LOOKS LIKE TEMPS IN GLADES COUNTY COULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S TONIGHT WHICH COMBINED WITH WINDS IN THE 5 TO 10
MPH RANGE COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. WE
WILL LOOK INTO THIS CLOSER FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AND WILL NEED
TO MAKE A DECISION THEN AS TO WHETHER WE NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
OR NOT.

Animated miami radar view
Member Since: 14 mai 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276
337. ricderr 16:22 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
grimm...i'll answer your questions...but when..for my views..i'm labeled as communistic..against free market..than..it's evident.we'll never have a true discussion and the conversation can only end up as pointless and counterproductive..so..this will be my last post to you.....i'm trying hard to be constructive...it's my 2007 resolution...
now..as to getting rid of SUV's ( again...we're making the giant assumption that GW is a man made event and thusly reducing co2 levels will have an impact )seems to me...you first..mandate that manufacturers sell no product for general public use under a certain mpg level..and you phase that in at a predetermined timeframe....secondly..you offer some type of incentive..to encourage owners of gas hungry vehicles to purchase more mpg friendly units...couple that with a penalty tax down the road on registration of gas guzzling vehicles and i believe you have a viable solution....is there a cost involved..that you and i will have to bear...of course..will it hurt the poor more than the rich..unfortunately so...will a free market system find a way to cash in on it...darn skippy...i'm betting someone would be snatching up those suv's and converting the gas engines to some new system and reselling them at a profit...


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338. ProgressivePulse 16:23 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Unfortunatly it looks like most of the rain will be Broward and below. Good for you guys, bad for Palm Beach, Martin and the rest. We could use a good soaking.
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339. weatherboykris 16:23 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
My thermometer has been dropping all day h23,and is now down to 63.6.
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340. weatherboykris 16:24 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Strong La Nina by July?
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341. weatherboykris 16:25 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
I see anomalies between -1 and -2C on that map.
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342. hurricane23 16:28 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Weatherboykris lets hope thats not the case.
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343. ProgressivePulse 16:28 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
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344. weatherboykris 16:28 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
I think it could be.I'll be back later this afternoon.
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345. hurricane23 16:33 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Dew points in the 70's down here across southeast florida but that will be changing soon.

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346. Tazmanian 16:35 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
By: weatherboykris at 8:24 AM PST on January 25, 2007.

Strong La Nina by July?


your kinding me right?? i hop not but if we do then run for your lives run for the hills
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347. hurricane23 16:37 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
Radar and satelitte combo



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348. weatherboykris 16:38 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
H23,you think La Nina by July is possible?
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349. Tazmanian 16:40 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
weatherboykris the way thing are going we could see it sooner then that
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350. ProgressivePulse 16:40 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
That forcast has a strong La Nina all the way through peak H Season. Also noticed the Warm Anomaly weaker in the Upper US East Coast that Turtle mentioned last season in his blog. Not sure what that means!
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351. Tazmanian 16:42 GMT le 25 janvier 2007    
run for the hills
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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