Warmest winter on record for the globe
Earth just experienced its warmest Northern Hemisphere winter on record, according to statistics released today by the National Climatic Data Center. The 3-month Northern Hemisphere winter period December 2006 through February 2007 had an average global temperature +0.72�C (+1.30�F) above normal, beating the previous record set in 2004 by a substantial +0.12�C. The Northern Hemisphere had its warmest winter ever measured, and the Southern Hemisphere (where it was summer) had its 4th warmest summer on record. Cooler than normal temperatures were observed over less than 15% of the globe, and nowhere did the cooling exceed 3� C (Figure 1). Record warmth was particularly noteworthy over land areas of the Northern Hemisphere poleward of 45� latitude, where temperatures a remarkable 5�C (9�F) above normal were common. Warming of almost the entire globe's land and ocean areas, with the greatest warming occurring in winter over the northern Northern Hemisphere's land areas, is a result that climate models have long been predicting would occur if human-emitted greenhouse gases were substantially affecting Earth's climate. This winter's pattern of record warmth closely matches the computer models projections, and adds additional support to the theory that human-emitted greenhouse gases are now causing a significant warming of the planet. We can expect further substantial warming in coming years as human-emitted greenhouse gases continue to increase at 2% per year.
Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for the winter of December 2006-February 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
Influence of El Ni�o
The record warm winter was also partially due to the presence of a moderately strong El Ni�o event in the Eastern Pacific. December 2006 was the warmest December on record, January 2007 was the warmest January on record, and both of these record warmest months occurred when El Ni�o was at its peak strength. El Ni�o rapidly died out at the end of January, and global temperatures in February were not quite as warm, merely the 6th warmest on record. With El Ni�o gone and a possible La Ni�a event on the way later this year, we may not see any more record-breaking warmest months in 2007.
Sea ice extent and snow
The record winter warmth did not lead to record minimum sea ice coverage in the Arctic, which recorded its third lowest February coverage on record (Figure 2). Still, the sea ice coverage this month is very close to the minimum observed in 2005, and is 10% lower than it was 28 years ago. Winter 2006/2007 snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere was the 8th lowest extent in the historical record, and 3rd lowest on record over Eurasia. The low snow cover combined with the near record-low Arctic ice extent could lead to an early spring in the Arctic, and more record or near-record low sea ice coverage for the Arctic this year.
Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for February, for the years 1979-2007. The record lowest Arctic February sea ice extent occurred in 2005, and sea ice has increased slightly over that record low the past two years. Still, the February sea ice coverage has declined about 10% since 1979.
I'll be back with a new blog on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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And, of course, you always have the possibility of price manipulation ...
Michael - where can I find the S Atlantic data? Interesting that the one you show is going E-W instead of W-E.
Dude....what the hell does that mean?
Please put that in English
Always have to copy everything we do
Here we got off the NE coast of Aulstralia~ Max a Cat 1 in their fall season & peak of season, in an area where the SST anomalies are warm.
They speak of our beloved Quikscat..
Also interesting in there..
Bill Proenza also told The Associated Press in an wide-ranging interview that ties between global warming and increased hurricane strength seemed a 'natural linkage.' But he cautioned that other weather conditions currently play a larger part in determining the strength and number of hurricanes.
The storm has been downgraded to a tropical depression as it moves south, but bad weather continues to prevent relief efforts near Antalaha. Reports from the area describe heavy damage to structures and agricultural land, with rice paddies completely inundated. Residents are without power or communication services.
Just a thought, MJA
The season for fronts that bring rain and storms is over.Now,Florida needs to have daytime 'airmass' thunderstorms to help ease the drought.
WBC, did it end this evening? I had a Frog-strangler at my house today. We're not necessarily past Derecho season here either. There may be some wait yet for the summertime pattern. We have some dry season to get through first. Still, I'm looking forward to summer. Flash....BOOOM!
Just a thought, MJA
Yes, and much warmer than now. This is a record in the fact of in the last 180 years of "record keeping". Mind you record keeping has changed in the last 27 years and no longer can be used in the same tests. Yet people keep taking data from before 1980 and mixing it with data collected after 1980 and see nothing wrong with it. The data collected before the age of electronics was all done visually and dependant upon the observer. So the error rate was much greater, and the confidence rate was much lower. Where as today with electronic sensors and computers we have a much more calibrated temprature and have taken the observation interpretation out. Also we record today's temperatures in tenths 80.1, 79.7, etc.... We did not do so back in the day, those little tenths add up quickly over a period of years. So when I see a new record achieved in comparison to anything other then the last 30 years I throw it in the trash.
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