Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

On that loop current map, I keep looking at the two super-loops on the west coast side of Panama . . . talk about fuel for a passing Twave . . .

Oh, wait.

No passing twaves so far . . .

Whew.

nice blob looks like a little burst of engery nuttin much be gone by dawn 07 will lull us to sleep storms come late after the heat

"Posted By: DocBen
thelmores - click on "education" above and then follow all sorts of other links Wunderground provides."

I'll do that friend..... thanks! :)

Night to all my weather friends....

Doing a little Research! Every year that transitioned from a warm phase to a cool phase early to mid year resulted in an active hurricane season. The most recent notables are 1995 and 2005. 1995 had 19 named storms and 2005 had 28. Dr. Grey also referenced some analog years prior to the recent warm phase, 1964 being the most active with 14 storms. Also interesting is the names for 1995 closely match the names for 2007!

South florida needs rain as does ALL of Florida. I was there and I know

Hurricane Myths! Hurricane Cycles run about 12 years.

bump

Well, Taz, it looks like we hit 800 for the first time this year. Imagine once the season actually starts! 1500+ posts a day will be the norm . . .

yes we are all most at 800 what try for 900 but dont think we will make it

at the end of an El Ni�o, surface currents return to their normal conditions, but they often first overshoot that condition, resulting in unusually cold waters along the Peruvian coast and in the eastern equatorial Pacific -- this unusually cold water along the equator causes the intertropical convergence zone (the doldrums) to shift northward, which then displaces the jet stream and leads to droughts in the U.S.

Both observations in the US this year!

credit to maritime.haifa.ac.il

This has already happend about a month ago and La Nina Continues to grow.

thats exacly what happen and continues to happen till la nina levels off then intense heat of summer starts its march north in late may by jul we may see the start of the 30 day heat wave temp at 100 or greater that will cover pretty much all of north america till the first intense storms of the season starts showing up by mid august.

Some of you might be interested in how the IPCC reports are put together...you may surprised and perhaps a bit dismayed.

Although there are many competent scientists in the various WGs (Working Groups), the Panel is directed by just a handful of scientists and an overwhelming majority of politicians who represent the 120 nations that comprise the Panel. This latter group is responsible for the SPM (Summary for Policy Makers). The WG reports usually run to about 30-50 pages; the SPM about 5-10. The SPM was released in February. The WG report issued last Friday was actually in completed draft form almost a year ago last May and was available on the Net shortly thereafter. If there are differences in the thrust of the SPM and WG reports, the differences must be settled before the combined (Synthesis) Report is issued, and differences there were.

Now if you really want to see how sausages are made, the regulations for accomplishing this can be found in paragraphs 4.3 to 4.4 of Appendix II: �Procedures for the Preparation, Review, Acceptance, Adoption, Approval, and Publication of IPCC Reports�. So, here is the kicker: Any differences between the science WGs report and the mostly politically orchestrated SPM Panel report must be resolved in favor of the SPM! What that means is that it�s the politicians, not the scientists who have the last word. This makes a complete mockery of what science is all about.

N.B. Since I just started posting here I'm a bit confused about the protocols and put this piece elsewhere. I'll try not to double-post in the future.

the high is building up

I've often thought that measuring hurricanes by highest windspeeds alone isn't really enough. Maybe someone in this community, or maybe Dr. Masters could propose an additional category based on how far hurricane force winds extend from the center of the storm. You could take the smallest on record, the largest and divide it into 5 categories. So Katrina for example might be a 5-5.
Any thoughts?

Nelson: War hurting hurricane efforts

JACKSONVILLE -- (AP) -- The war in Iraq has depleted the equipment inventory of the National Guard, potentially hampering its response to the predicted heavy hurricane season, U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson said.

The Florida National Guard has only 53 percent of the dual-use equipment it once had for responding to a storm or domestic disturbance, a recent analysis by the Government Accountability Office found. Texas, California and Louisiana also have about half of their dual-use equipment available to nondeployed Army National Guard forces.

''Problems from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have stretched the Florida National Guard further than ever before, leaving it without all the resources it should have for responding to a domestic crisis,'' Nelson said. ``Hurricane season is coming fast, and we need to make sure the Guard has what it needs.''

The hurricane season, which runs June 1 through Nov. 30, is predicted to be worse than recent years.

Florida has about 600 to 700 soldiers in Iraq. Members were sent overseas with their equipment, but when they come back, the gear often stays in the war zones.

The Florida Guard was down 500 Humvees, 600 trucks, short 4,000 pairs of night vision goggle and needed 30 more wreckers, spokesman Lt. Col. Ron Tittle said.

Yet Tittle said sufficient manpower and equipment remained to respond to a major hurricane, and additional supplies could be borrowed from other states or rented if needed.

But Nelson questioned the lag time and the fact that the other state Guard units also are facing the same depletion of equipment problems.

''I know that at the highest levels . . . they are concerned about this,'' Nelson, a Democrat, said.

Nelson said a memorandum of understanding between the Army and the National Guard could allow Gov. Charlie Crist to use Army Reserve trucks and generators upon the declaration of a state of emergency. Without such a memorandum, the governor has to go through a bureaucratic process to request that the president release Reserve equipment that is being held unused in Florida.

ALL Hurricane Advisories contain that info already. All Offical NHC advisories have the Hurricane force wind field..and HOW far the Hurricane force winds extend from the center. They also include How far out Tropical Storm winds extend out from the center.

I've been watching the drought in south FL...for the life of me...why wont it rain south of the tropic line?


Just thinking out loud, and feeling for you guys down there.

Maybe today is the buster!

Not likely cajun.. :(

you all know that the weather channel is Gods favorite sitcom

Thanks Patrap. True enough. I guess I was thinking that often we refer to a hurricane in shorthand as a cat 5, with no detailed report for obvious reasons. I just liked the idea of
a shorthand like 5-5 or 5-4. Point well taken though.

arrgg...vista is not loop or applet friendly

anyone know why I can't get the noaa models to loop? It will load and play sometimes and then sometimes nothing on all resolutions !@$#%%^@%^!

cajunkid - I think it has to do with the subsidence under the Farrell-Hadley cell boundary. That has shifted to higher latitude.

I don't know Cajun but it is getting pretty darn bad. The lake behind my house is about dried up, down 8 feet.

Your going to hate Vista in Advance applications. I ended up switching back to XP because I was running into so many problems. For everyday applications it is great but, in more advanced programs and software it is horrible.

My design software would not work with it and the manufacturer said it will be a year or more before it will be able to run with vista.

I can usually fix most things on my pc, but vista...another animal

Cane, thanks
looks like I'm gonna fire up the dinosaur

morning everybody! :)

Tech Support said it had to do with all the security verification. Things that used to automatically complete tasks now need verification that you want that to happen and it would shut down the program as a result.

Morning Thel

can anyone tell where the warmest water in the GOM is? Link

Cane, yea
you have to set almost every page/app. you view...its a royal pain

DocBen, at least FL has better roads than we do here in LA

argggg! Looks like the rain is gonna miss South FL today!

Now some ppl are saying the deforestation will stop global warming. Can we all just collectively go, "huh?"

Link to "Deforestation = Cooling" article

HopquickSteve....whole premise of that 'pseudoscientific' article is flawed. Forested areas may not reflect sunlight to the extent snow and ice does, but forests do not absorb nor concentrate heat. Cellulose lacks the density necessary for heat absorption. That's why you can handle leaves on a 100 degree sunny day, and not get burned. Try that with black asphalt.

What happens when the pine needles are covered with snow?