Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

The Climate Change Storm
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 21:14 GMT le 06 avril 2007 +6
Significant climate change is already occurring, will grow dramatically, and will cause serious disruptions to natural ecosystems and the lives of billions of people world-wide over the coming century. We need to better prepare for the inevitable changes--and attempt to lessen the magnitude of the these changes by reducing greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible. That's the take-home message from today's latest report from the United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Every six years, the IPCC releases a huge, influential study detailing the state of Earth's climate. Part 1 of the 2007 report, summarizing the science of climate change, was released in February. Today's summary, titled "Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability" addressed the likely impacts of climate change on Earth's ecosystems and people. Not all of the expected changes will be harmful--the IPCC emphasizes that "impacts of future climate change will be mixed across regions" for temperature rises of 1 to 3 �C above 1990 levels, with the big losers being the poor developing countries. However, if global warming exceeds 2 to 3 �C, the IPCC states it is very likely that all regions of the globe will suffer increased costs or declining benefits. I believe it is the responsibility of every citizen of the planet to take the 30 minutes needed to read the IPCC summary and familiarize themselves with what the world's top scientists say about the likely impacts of climate change. The scope and severity of the Earth-shaking changes that lie ahead present a breathtakingly formidable challenge for humanity.


Figure 1. Locations of significant changes in physical systems (snow, ice and frozen ground, hydrology, coastal processes) and biological systems (land, ocean, and freshwater) from 1970 to 2004. Between 90% and 100% of these changes are consistent with warming global temperatures, due in large part to human-emitted greenhouse gases. White areas are where not enough data existed to determine a temperature change. Figure 1 is a simplified form of Figure SPM-1 of the 2007 IPCC document, "Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability--Summary for Policy Makers."

Observed impacts of climate change to date
The IPCC report begins by summarizing observed changes in physical systems (snow, ice and frozen ground, hydrology, coastal processes) and biological systems (land, ocean, and freshwater) reported in 577 papers in the scientific literature between 1990 and 2004 (Figure 1). They conclude, "Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases." Examples for which they are highly (80% chance) or very highly confident (>90% chance) of include:

Earlier bird migrations and leaf unfolding
Poleward shifts in the ranges of various plant and animal species
Shifts in the ranges and numbers of ocean species near the poles
Earlier migrations of fish in rivers
Earlier and increased peaks in spring run-off from glacier- and snow-fed rivers
Warming of lakes and rivers
More and bigger glacial lakes
Melting permafrost

Medium confidence effects (50% chance of being true) observed in the Northern Hemisphere include:

Earlier spring planting of crops
Increases in forest fires and pest damage to forests
Heat-related deaths in Europe, spread of disease in some areas, and changes in allergenic pollen
Hunting and travel by humans over Arctic snow and ice

Future impacts
This is where the IPCC report gets very sobering. Keep in mind that the predicted future impacts may be understated, given the cautious nature of scientists--and the fact that the final version was edited by government officials, who changed the original conclusions of the scientists. I'll present just of few of the more mind-boggling impacts (in blue, with my comments in black), and leave the rest for the interested reader to discover:

The resilience of many ecosystems is likely to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, associated disturbances (e.g., flooding, drought, wildfire, insects, ocean acidification), and other global change drivers (e.g., land use change, pollution, over-exploitation of resources) (high confidence).
In other words, some ecosystems will collapse, putting the people who depend on these ecosystems in grave peril.
Many millions more people are projected to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Those densely-populated and low-lying areas where adaptive capacity is relatively low, and which already face other challenges such as tropical storms or local coastal subsidence, are especially at risk. The numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas of Asia and Africa while small islands are especially vulnerable (very high confidence).
Expect damage and human suffering from hurricanes to greatly increase in coming decades, thanks to higher seas levels.
There is medium confidence that at least partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet, and possibly the West Antarctic ice sheet, would occur over a period of time ranging from centuries to millennia for a global average temperature increase of 1-4 �C (relative to 1990-2000), causing a contribution to sea level rise of 4-6 m or more.
Along with drought and ecosystem collapse, sea level rise is my big concern. Sea level before the most recent ice age was about 4-6 meters (13-20 feet) higher than today, at global temperatures that we expect to match by 2100. The IPCC states that a sea level rise of 0.6-1.9 feet (0.18-0.58 meters) is expected by 2100, and a 4-6 meter rise is not likely for centuries. However, our understanding of the response of glaciers to climate warming is poor. An unexpected rapid partial disintegration of the Greenland or West Antarctic ice sheets later this century raising sea levels by 2 meters (6 feet) has at least a 1% chance of occurring, in my opinion.

Conclusion
The language of the 2007 IPCC climate report is couched in uncertainly, but the broad picture is clear: future climate change may rival or exceed a World War in its effect on society. Steps to lessen its impact and adapt to it need to be made as soon as possible. The cost in lives, dollars, and human suffering will be far greater if we do not.

In his 2006 book, The Revenge of Gaia, philosopher-scientist James Lovelock writes, "I am old enough to notice a remarkable similarity between attitudes over sixty years ago towards the threat of war and those now towards the threat of global heating. Most of us think that something unpleasant may soon happen, but we are as confused as we were in 1938 over what form it will take and what to do about it. Our response so far is just like that before the Second World War, and attempt to appease. The Kyoto agreement was uncannily like that of Munich, with politicians out to show they do respond but in reality playing for time...Battle will soon be joined, and what we face now is far more deadly than any blitzkrieg."

The climate change storm is coming, and the wind is already starting to rise.

Next blog
My next blog will be Monday afternoon or Tuesday. I've got several topics in mind--tornadoes in Chicago, Greenland glaciers, or hurricane model improvements.

Jeff Masters
Categories: Climate Change
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1. Tazmanian 21:15 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
dr m you have WU e mail from we you have 2 of them
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2. Patrap 21:16 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
Those along the coastal areas will see these effects first.
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3. Tazmanian 21:17 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
when is the next blog dr m and what will that blog be a about?
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4. Tazmanian 21:23 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
Hard Freeze Warning for the United States


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
254 PM EDT FRI APR 6 2007

.UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT VEGETATION
THIS WEEKEND IN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND MARYLAND WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>023-027-071000-
/O.CON.KPHI.HZ.W.0002.070407T0500Z-070407T1300Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.FZ.A.0003.070408T0500Z-070408T1300Z/
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNE`S-
TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...WHARTON STATE FOREST
254 PM EDT FRI APR 6 2007

...HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY. A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BELOW FREEZING AGAIN
TONIGHT. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO DAMAGE FRUIT TREES...
WHICH HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO BLOOM. IN ADDITION...ANY TENDER
PLANTS AND VEGETATION ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE HURT BY THIS HARD
FREEZE. THEREFORE...BRING ANY VULNERABLE PLANTS INDOORS THIS
EVENING. ALTERNATIVELY...COVER EXPOSED VEGETATION IF POSSIBLE.

THIS COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE PROLONGED. THEREFORE...THE
THREAT OF SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...A HARD FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WATCH IS ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HURT OR KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD HURT OR KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.



wow this is new nevere seen a Hard Freeze Warning be for may be Freeze Warning but not Hard Freeze Warning
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111306
5. Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology (Admin)
21:23 GMT le 06 avril 2007
   
Next blog will be Monday night or Tuesday. I've got several topics in mind, could be tornadoes in Chicago, Greenland glaciers, or hurricane model improvements.

Jeff Masters
7. weatherboykris 21:29 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
LOL CB.I'm looking forward to the next blog,Dr. Masters.
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8. weatherboykris 21:30 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
A hard freeze warning isn't rare at all.
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9. sp34n119w 21:37 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
I just found this (through UCS) at a site called stepitup.org for folks who want to make some noise on GW:
This April 14th, tens of thousands of Americans will gather all across the country at meaningful, iconic places to call for action on climate change. We will hike, bike, climb, walk, swim, kayak, canoe, or simply sit or stand with banners of our call to action:
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10. weatherboykris 21:41 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
How many people you think will actually do that?
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11. sp34n119w 21:44 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
I just searched in my zip code and found 9 events within easy driving distance. I dunno - perhaps they'll report on numbers after the fact.
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12. weatherboykris 21:45 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
No offense,but...I can't see tens of thousands of people caring that much.
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13. sp34n119w 21:46 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
There are 8 events in LA and 30 in FL. Somebody wants to play!
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14. sullivanweather 21:47 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
The IPCC is confusing the crisis of global warming with the problem of over-population. For example, the millions and billions that are expected to either starve or parch in their report won't be a result of global warming, but too many people living in an area which cannot accomodate their needs.

All one has to do to come up with the figures set forth by their 'guide for government policies' is extrapolate demographics from today's population to the expected population by 2050 or 2080 or whatever base year they choose to write their dire predictions for. For example if (x) percent of the population of Africa is already short on water and food today, why is it such a surprise that double this number with have the same problems if their population doubles (as it is expected to do) by 2080. It isn't surprising to me...

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15. cloudlover 21:48 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
Apparently the government took out the words...."were all screwed in 25-50 years."

Screwed by storms and prices of everything going through the roof.

Even if the warming could be due to natural occurences combined with human interaction, the world will be different, but liveable....just buy enough plywood for the windows before the prices skyrocket.
16. StoryOfTheCane 21:48 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
lookin pretty active


17. sullivanweather 21:52 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
"I just searched in my zip code and found 9 events within easy driving distance"

Great tens of thousands of more people WASTING ENERGY and BURNING FOSSIL FUELS!! Follow the almighty Al Gore by exhausting tons of CO2 into the air for the reason of 'spreading the word about climate change'.

You people are ridiculous!! Driving to all ends, in some cases flying their own private plane, to tell the people not to do what you just did. Simply amazing!!
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18. StoryOfTheCane 22:01 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
global warming will never be fixed. Its a pipe dream, we're too far away from a solution with too little time to do it. I also believe that climate change has a lot more to do with population than anything else. Pollutants are just icing on the cake. There is no way to prevent this unless the human race simply begins to limit its offsprings, carbon dioxide we all put into the atmosphere every day is enough to do the inevitable. Obviously I would love there to be a solution, but we can't even solve solutions within our own selves like disease, religious differences and psychological problems, how are we going to ever tackle something like the environment with any success?
19. sullivanweather 22:04 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
Has anyone ever noticed how Antarctica (except for the peninsula) is deliberatly left out of the 'warming since 1970' map? Because it is getting colder!! More cherry-picked information is at hand. Especially since 1970 was at the peak of the cooling experienced from 1940-1975. What a great cherry-picked year to base averages on...some of the coldest years of the 1900's.

why not compare data from 1940, the height of the warming period after coming out of the little ice age?? oh, that would practially nullify their argument.
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20. sullivanweather 22:08 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
Then we have people like Dr.Masters saying there's a 1% chance of Greenland or west antarctica disintergrating 90 years from now...

I'll put that percentage at like 0.00000001% (the chance of a asteriod 5 miles wide making a direct impact at above mentioned place).

It's statements like these that turn most people off to the idea....things that simply aren't plausable!
Member Since: 8 Mars 2007 Posts: 269 Comments: 12490
21. bbreaker 22:11 GMT le 06 avril 2007    

Although the movie was more fiction then anything.There was a movie that had some truth to it. We are now seeing "some effects" of what the movie was saying. The changes in the weather and melting of polar ice. These things give us something to think about in the coming years !!!
22. catastropheadjuster 22:13 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
I take it that Dr.M blog is about GW?
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23. StoryOfTheCane 22:17 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
If you want to know what is happening to our planet just look at Venus with a 96% carbon dioxide count in the air. I believe the duration of the existence of the sun and planets depicts the type of atmosphere the planets have. In hundreds of years to come the next planet farthest from the sun, Jupiter, will begin to see a similar climate that Earth posesses now, and Earth will begin to consist of too much Carbon Dioxide for life to exist like Venus, and Jupiter will begin the process of evolution by the initiation of life, and thats my Nostradamus prediction for the century.
24. sp34n119w 22:24 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
"I just searched in my zip code and found 9 events within easy driving distance"

Great tens of thousands of more people WASTING ENERGY and BURNING FOSSIL FUELS!! Follow the almighty Al Gore by exhausting tons of CO2 into the air for the reason of 'spreading the word about climate change'.


Hah! Well done, sullivanweather! Of course, I used that phrase - within easy driving distance - as a means to convey the notion that there are many events near me and may be near some of you and not to suggest that we all jump into our individual Hummers and take the scenic route to get to such an event. And, I don't have a private plane, either ;-)
Nevertheless, it was a poor choice of words on my part. I sometimes forget that idioms that are familiar to me may not be to others and will try to be more precise in the future.
As you read (I'm sure) in my original post, the stepitup website makes a point of saying We will hike, bike, climb, walk, swim, kayak, canoe, at the events and many of the event web pages are clear about that, too.
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25. Tazmanian 22:26 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
Posted By: JeffMasters (Admin) at 2:23 PM PDT on April 06, 2007.

Next blog will be Monday night or Tuesday. I've got several topics in mind, could be tornadoes in Chicago, Greenland glaciers, or hurricane model improvements.

Jeff Masters

thanls

hey dr i like to her about hurricane model improvements that would be a good one
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26. ForecasterColby 22:47 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
Dr. Masters, I've been following your blog for more than a year now. While I often disagree with your political opinions, I generally have respect for your knowledge and insight into the weather. But this entry is ridiculously sensationalist. Let's say, for the sake of arguement, that global temperatures rise 5C in the next century and sea levels rise 3m/10ft. Coastal cities around the world are flooded, ecosystems shift, and everything you fear regarding global warming comes true. How would this have the impact of a world war? I strongly doubt that a gradual (by human standards, a degree every 20 years is gradual) increase in temperatures and loss of coastline is going to kill more than a hundred million people.

I respect that you consider this to be a significant threat, and I agree with your mission to make people more aware, and to reduce the human impact on our enviornment. I am generally not behind the major political efforts in the field because of their absurd sensationalism ("The Day After Tomorrow" comes to mind). While I may have disagreed with you on certain issues, or more often, their best treatments, your word held a great deal more weight than that of any government study as far as I was concerned. Moving people to action to protect our planet is admirable - but stick to the truth, please.
27. 147257 22:48 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
lol i want them all learned here more then on school :P
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28. Inyo 22:52 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
Posted By: sullivanweather at 9:47 PM GMT on April 06, 2007.
The IPCC is confusing the crisis of global warming with the problem of over-population.


imho, they are BOTH essential and closely related issues. overpopulation enhances warming, and warming decreases carrying capacity.


Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 10:01 PM GMT on April 06, 2007.
global warming will never be fixed.


hmm... you could be right.. better live it up while we can right? i need a beer.


Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 10:17 PM GMT on April 06, 2007.
If you want to know what is happening to our planet just look at Venus with a 96% carbon dioxide count in the air. I believe the duration of the existence of the sun and planets depicts the type of atmosphere the planets have. In hundreds of years to come the next planet farthest from the sun, Jupiter, will begin to see a similar climate that Earth posesses now, and Earth will begin to consist of too much Carbon Dioxide for life to exist like Venus, and Jupiter will begin the process of evolution by the initiation of life, and thats my Nostradamus prediction for the century.


what happened to Mars?

Also, Earth can't become like venus. There isnt as much CO2 in the system. If we burn 100% of the oil, the CO2 will go back in the air and the climate will go back to that which it was during the time of the dinosaurs: vast swamps and inland seas, thick rain forests, possibly vast deserts in higher latitudes (not sure about that one) etc.

global warming will NOT boil off the oceans or kill all life on Earth. that is an impossibility. However, it might turn all of our agriculture into swamps or inland seas.. in which case we still starve and die.
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29. weatherguy03 22:54 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
Colby, while I dont agree with the report, Dr. Masters current blog is taken from a report from the IPCC. He is recounting what is in that report. So why are you telling him to state the truth?
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30. Inyo 22:54 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
I strongly doubt that a gradual (by human standards, a degree every 20 years is gradual) increase in temperatures and loss of coastline is going to kill more than a hundred million people.

in infastructure damage and all types of human mortality related to this, I think it would kill at least that many people. of course, as noted earlier, overpopulation is also an issue
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31. Inyo 22:58 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
dear God people, just because Al Gore is an idiot does not invalidate global warming. Bush is clearly an idiot also, so by your logic, you should give up all of your conservative views.
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32. plywoodstatenative 23:05 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
What I would appreciate hearing about is what NOAA expects to cover the absence of the aging satellite should it die this year. What is there in place to cover so to say the information and data that we look to lose with the chance of the satellite dying on us. What is their plan, thats what I am interested in.
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36. Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology (Admin)
23:46 GMT le 06 avril 2007
   
sullivanweather wrote:

Then we have people like Dr.Masters saying there's a 1% chance of Greenland or west antarctica disintergrating 90 years from now...

I'll put that percentage at like 0.00000001% (the chance of a asteriod 5 miles wide making a direct impact at above mentioned place).

It's statements like these that turn most people off to the idea....things that simply aren't plausable!


Fair enough, I toned down my language to say I expect at least a 1% chance of a 6 foot rise in sea level by 2100, due to a partial disintigration of the ice sheets.

If I had told you in 1980 that a hole in the ozone layer would open up over Antarctica in a few years and rapidly expand within 10 years to encompass an area twice the size of Antarctica, would you have believed me? No one predicted the formation and rapid expansion of the Antarctic Ozone Hole. The point is that we are changing the atmosphere in substantial ways that has already led to one nasty surprise. There is so much that we don't know about the climate system, that more unexpected nasty surprises could easily occur.

Jeff Masters
37. plywoodstatenative 23:51 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
Dr. Masters, anything to cover the loss of the satellite?
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38. Xerklite 23:52 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
I can't wait till my home is flooded from global warming. I'm sure it will happen soon.
39. hurricane23 23:54 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
Dr.Masters hope you update the blog with your thoughts on improvements on the models for this year.Would like to hear your thoughts.

Have a great easter weekend.
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40. Patrap 23:56 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
The Quikscat satellite has not failed.The Quikscat data flows daily.The current NOAA budget dosent have a new add-on spacecraft scheduled to replace the system. However..all this public outcry over the need may just be the fuel to get funding.
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41. weatherboykris 23:58 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
we can hope Patrap.
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42. Patrap 23:58 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
The spacecraft was designed with a 5 year life requirement but has performed 2 years past that. A great testament to the Builders and operators of the spacecraft too.
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43. Inyo 23:59 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
Perhaps he can also talk about what caused the worst freeze in more than half a century:

perhaps a global warming of 1 degree (not enough to stop a freeze!) intensified the fluxuations of the jet stream and drove cold air much further south than it normally goes this time of year?

or maybe it is just a stochastic event. We had a similar freeze in California.. the week before the freeze it was 85 degrees, then temperatures dropped below 20 at night in many parts of southern California, even near the coast. I think the cold in CA is associated with the dry year we are having, as dry and cold go together here. It could be aggravated by global warming, or maybe not. Conditions in southern California right now are actually similar to the conditions of the late 1800s - another period of extreme fluxuations, drought, floods, and frost.
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44. Patrap 23:59 GMT le 06 avril 2007    
Quikscat..Link
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47. EvPv 00:10 GMT le 07 avril 2007    
Using less oil/gasoline in the U.S. saves lives in the near future. It removes motivation for the next war over an energy source.

Support the military
Save your Children
Save your Grandchildren
Help the environment
...use less gas

I used to drive 25,000 miles a year getting 17 mpg. Now I drive 3,000 miles a year with a car getting close to 40 mpg. I bicycle to work 99% of the time. I did not start out with the goal of this much of a reduction. Just one challange at a time and in 6 years I'm at this point. Gas price jumps do not have a noticeable effect on my wallet.
Now my challenge is how brutal can the weather conditions be...and still bike in. Coldest windchill is 40 below. truth is, it hurt.
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48. plywoodstatenative 00:12 GMT le 07 avril 2007    
what winter, we never have winter in South Florida. Hot all year round
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49. hurricane23 00:14 GMT le 07 avril 2007    
plywoodstatenative did you get the articles i sent you?
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50. EvPv 00:14 GMT le 07 avril 2007    
The reason for my post is taking action is a personal choice. No law, ordinance or treaty is needed to choose to make a personal decision and act on it.
Member Since: 9 janvier 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
51. Tazmanian 00:15 GMT le 07 avril 2007    
any one got a hurrican to talk about?


we been talking about global warming on dr m blog all winter what have some in new talk about


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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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