Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Wind, waters rising across the Northeast

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 15:46 GMT le 15 avril 2007

Water levels are starting to rise along the Atlantic coast from New Jersey to Maine, as the Nor'easter of 2007 prepares to enter its explosive deepening phase. At 2pm EDT, the center of the storm was over North Carolina, with a central pressure of 987 mb. Winds over the ocean are starting to rise significantly. Sustained winds of tropical storm force--44 mph, gusting to 50--were observed at 2pm EDT just south of Long Island at Ambrose Light. The storm is expected to move northeastward and cross out to sea off the Delaware coast this evening, and rapidly intensify to a central pressure of 975 mb as it tracks up the coast of New Jersey and passes directly over New York City.

Figure 1. Tidal levels observed at The Battery in New York City as of 2pm EDT Sunday April 15. Note that water levels were two feet above normal at the time, but it was low tide. High tide tonight (near 00 GMT, or 8pm EDT) will see significant coastal flooding. The Battery is located on the southern tip of Manhattan Island. Image credit:NOAA Tides and Currents website.

Water levels at The Battery in New York City were two feet above normal at 2pm, but coastal flooding had not yet occurred, since it was low tide. The tidal range at New York City is six feet today, and some of the highest tides of the year are expected tonight and Monday, due to the arrival of the new moon. When the Sun, Earth, and Moon all line up (which happens during each new moon and full moon), the highest high tides of the year occur. The strongest winds of the 2007 Nor'easter will affect New York City during high tide tonight at 7:30pm. The expected 3-4 foot storm surge in western Long Island Sound near New York City would match the levels seen there in the "Perfect Storm" of October 31, 1991 (Figure 2), and the March 13, 1993 Storm of the Century. The worst coastal flooding in recent years in New York City occurred during the December 11-12 1992 Nor'easter, which damaged as many as 20,000 homes and forced almost 2,000 people to take refuge in emergency storm shelters. Storm surges of 4 feet were recorded near New York City (Figure 3), and 5.5 feet in western Long Island Sound. Some computer models are forecasting a 4-6 foot storm surge over Long Island Sound tonight, and it is possible that the flooding levels seen in the December 1992 Nor'easter will be exceeded. The timing of the peak of this surge with the high tide cycle will be critical, as will the exact track of the storm. If the storm does track directly over New York City tonight, the relatively calm winds near the center may allow some of the storm surge to flow out of Long Island Sound.

Figure 2. Tidal levels observed at The Battery in New York City during the "Perfect Storm" of October 31, 1991. This storm brought the second highest storm surge to New York City observed in recent years.

Figure 3. Tidal levels observed at The Battery in New York City during the Nor'easter of December 11-12, 1992. This storm brought the highest storm surge to New York City observed since tidal record began at The Battery in 1966.

The same storm also brought heavy snow to Kansas and baseball-sized hail to Texas Saturday, and more severe weather is occurring today across the region where the cold front is passing. However, the main story of this storm will be coastal flooding in the Northeast, and wind damage from tropical-storm force winds. Freshwater flooding from the storm's 3-5 inches of rain could also cause localized flooding problems.

Tune in tonight, I'll have an update, and there will also be a separate update on the East Coast Winter Storm blog.

Jeff Masters

Batter Up! (Wesley)

We had a tornado about 5 miles south of here last night. We just got a little Texas sized hail. This piece had melted a little before we got it. Lots of damage here.

Categories: Winter Weather

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201. CapeWeather06 00:08 GMT le 16 avril 2007
Air pressure here on Cape Cod, MA is at 1005mb and falling steadily. WInds are at 20mph and I believe hurricane force winds can be well expected, and I see an area of rain moving to the north, to the southwest of Cape Cod and this could be the first part of the hurricane force winds or stronger winds. What do you expect the highest winds to be recorded and where will those winds be located.

203. SteveDa1 00:10 GMT le 16 avril 2007
8pm... st-Hubert Airport, QC near Montreal Heavy Rain mixing with snow Temperature..... 1�C (-3 from last hour) Pressure..... 100.9 kPa steady Visibility..... 4 km Humidity..... 94 % Dewpoint..... 1�C Wind NE..... 24 km/h I was brave enough to get a video from outside and I will show it to all of you soon once it's finished uploading. Check my blog if you wish which i am currently updating. Member Since: 17 octobre 2006 Posts: 59 Comments: 1057

204. weatherwatchin 00:16 GMT le 16 avril 2007
pressure readings from 980-990 in ct

206. cdo 00:34 GMT le 16 avril 2007
none, buster Member Since: 26 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 7

207. Levi32 00:36 GMT le 16 avril 2007
Buster, it's nowhere close to hurricane season.......lol nothing is going to form in the Caribbean. Member Since: 24 novembre 2005 Posts: 586 Comments: 25450

208. flibinite 00:55 GMT le 16 avril 2007
Hi, all. Pretty crummy here in Albany, NY, tho not as bad as I would have thought, with about an inch of slop, 10 mph winds from the north, and exactly 1000 mb and dropping. But Hutch's water vapor link and the current radar shows there's a big chunk of dry air being drawn up right along the coast near the Carolina's. Won't that inhibit any real growth, even though it's moving out over the water? Jo Member Since: 14 avril 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 256

209. FUBFEE 01:05 GMT le 16 avril 2007
Heavy down pours with Thunder and lightning now in Freehold, no wind.

210. watchingnva 01:17 GMT le 16 avril 2007
its not a ware core system...dry air wont affect it like it would a hurricane.. Member Since: 7 septembre 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1310

211. BoyntonBeach 01:55 GMT le 16 avril 2007
As usual, we got diddly. Maybe 1/10 of an inch. But at least there's cool air already in place.. Member Since: 5 juillet 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1

212. weatherwatchin 01:59 GMT le 16 avril 2007
low must be close, pressure reading of 975mb

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