Air pollution season begins; new hurricane buoys go on-line
Air pollution season begins May 1 and lasts through the end of September. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has designated this week as Air Pollution Awareness Week, so I'll be pointing people to the EPA web site designed for the occasion. We worry most about air pollution in the summer for two reasons:
1) The pollutant of most concern in the U.S. Is ground-level ozone. Ozone is a colorless odorless gas. It's the same kind of gas that's found in the ozone layer. But in the ozone layer, high in the Earth's stratosphere, ozone protects us from the sun. At ground level, where we live, ozone pollution is unhealthy to breathe. Ground-level ozone forms when nitrogen oxides and gaseous carbon compounds from cars, trucks, power plants, industries, and some consumer products cook in the sun. Intense sunlight and hot temperatures make the most ozone. Thus, hot summer days in late afternoon have the highest ozone pollution--unless strong winds disperse the foul air.
2) Summertime has the the greatest incidence of multi-day periods with clear weather and light winds. These "air stagnation episodes" allow pollutants to build up, since there is little wind to disperse the stuff. Air stagnation episodes are much less common during other times of year, when low pressure systems and their attached cold fronts and warm fronts bring strong winds that keep pollution levels lower.
I'll have a new blog Tuesday or Wednesday, and take a look at last year's pollution season. Is air quality improving in the U.S.?
Figure 1. Map of hurricane buoys maintained by the National Data Buoy Center. Image credit: NOAA.
New hurricane buoys on-line
Two new ocean buoys are now on-line to help monitor hurricanes, thanks to over $2 million in special hurricane funding approved by Congress in the wake of the Hurricane Katrina disaster in 2005. Buoy 42059, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, and buoy 41043, a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico, are strategically placed to offer data in area where hurricanes frequently traverse. Six more buoys are scheduled to come on-line in the next year, and these will be a big help in tracking hurricanes.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I posted this on the other thread just before this one came up:
Posted By: Levi32 at 6:45 AM AKDT on April 30, 2007.
Morning guys :)
That blob is convection generated by a surface trough in the area. There is NO surface circulation if you look on the visible loop.
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 2:58 AM AKDT on April 30, 2007.
these troughs are barely phasing the High, definitely not going to have a repeat of last year.
SOTC if you don't mind I need to clear something up. That surface map you have there shows nothing that we want to know. If you're looking for troughs and ridges that will steer hurricanes this year, look at the upper air maps, not the surface. That high that you guys are saying extends all the way across the Atlantic doesn't matter at all because it's the high in the upper atmosphere that matters.
Here's a link to a northern hemisphere 500mb map if you want to see it. Link
Anyway, if you want to find troughs and ridges that will affect hurricanes look either on a map like the one I gave you or the initial images of model runs. The surface map tells us nothing.
wish they put camera's on those things! :D
have a good week everybody! :)
have a feeling that will soon change! :) things are getting rather warm in the SW Caribbean!
http://www.news24.com/News24/Technology/News/0,,2-13-1443_2105958,00.html
"American hurricane forecaster William Gray said on Friday that global ocean currents, not human-produced carbon dioxide, were responsible for global warming and that the Earth might begin to cool on its own in five to 10 years.
Gray, a Colorado State University researcher, also said increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would not produce more or stronger hurricanes.
He said that over the past 40 years, the number of major hurricanes making landfall on the Atlantic coast had declined, even though carbon dioxide levels had risen.
Gray, speaking to a group of Republican state politicians, had harsh words for researchers and politicians who said man-made greenhouse gases were responsible for global warming.
"They're blaming it all on humans, which is crazy," he said. "We're not the cause of it." "
There you go people..... Is William Gray credible???
I would love to here Dr. Master's take on this article. Funny, you hear no mention of this story on the mainstream press.... or at least I didn't see it. Guess it does not fit the "template".
Just for the record, I agree with Dr. Gray that blaming all the global warming on humans is crazy! Now I have a credible Scientist to back me up! :)
OK.... I stirred the pot! :D
Interesting information Dr. Masters. Thanks.
I posted this on the other thread just before this one came up:
Posted By: Levi32 at 6:45 AM AKDT on April 30, 2007.
Morning guys :)
That blob is convection generated by a surface trough in the area. There is NO surface circulation if you look on the visible loop.
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 2:58 AM AKDT on April 30, 2007.
these troughs are barely phasing the High, definitely not going to have a repeat of last year.
SOTC if you don't mind I need to clear something up. That surface map you have there shows nothing that we want to know. If you're looking for troughs and ridges that will steer hurricanes this year, look at the upper air maps, not the surface. That high that you guys are saying extends all the way across the Atlantic doesn't matter at all because it's the high in the upper atmosphere that matters.
Here's a link to a northern hemisphere 500mb map if you want to see it. Link
Anyway, if you want to find troughs and ridges that will affect hurricanes look either on a map like the one I gave you or the initial images of model runs. The surface map tells us nothing.
I was merely referring to the troughs affecting the High coming off the East Coast, Levi, not the steering layers
Good for you, Dr masters.
Look, if you people don't want to believe your own scientists, you are fools. There is a big difference between one or two people crying wolf and the media jumping on it (that ice age thing) and having WELL OVER 90% of the people who devote their lives to studying climate saying something.
But of course, everyone who posts on a weather blog thinks they are an expert
But of course, everyone who posts on a weather blog thinks they are an expert"
That's absurd!
where is Stormtop anyway? LOL
Oh sorry, my bad lol. I thought you were talking about the pattern or the Bermuda High or something lol.
on a less political note, NOAA is still calling for La Nina but the ENSO region is actually warming now, and the trend towards La Nina seems to have completely ceased, at least for the time being.
they been saying the same thing evere week evere update not march new there
1.What causes tropical waves to form off the tip of africa?
2.What gets them to start spinning?
Here is a small breakdown of the 12Z GFS .
GFS @ 348hrs
GFS @ 360hrs
GFS@372hrs
GFS@384hrs
This will probably won't set well with many, but one thing that I believe is a major factor is when we shoot rockets, satellites, etc. into the atmospere. That rocket fuel has to have an effect if our auto exhausts,etc. do. If you notice, we often have serious storms after a launch.
Since I am not a scientist, I wont' debate this. I'm throwing it in & if you care to comment or debunk it, I'm all ears. The debate will stay with the rest of you. The one thing I do know is God gave us this earth to take care of & we are doing a lousy job, myself included. J.W.
Yes, it has improved CONSIDERABLY since the 1970s. The number 1 problem facing the U.S in 1970 was air, land, and water pollution. A series of laws passed in the 70s (Clean Air Act, etc.) led to the slow but sure improvement in air and water quality. Leaded gas was phased out and catalytic converters were required on all cars beginning in 1975. Rivers were cleaned up and beaches also.
Thank you carfrag1. I remember well the hype in the mid 70s, after a few very bad winters, that created a big frenzy in the media about the coming ice age. I am not saying (before I get knocked all over the place) that this or GW is occuring. Just that short term hype feeds on a few small events.
Just by the mbs?
If so, what are they projecting this "fantasy" storm to be - thanks,
And is that 3 or 4 consectutive runs now calling for development?
17:58 GMT le 30 avril 2007
Gray, speaking to a group of Republican state politicians, had harsh words for researchers and politicians who said man-made greenhouse gases were responsible for global warming.
"They're blaming it all on humans, which is crazy," he said. "We're not the cause of it." "
There you go people..... Is William Gray credible???
Dr. Gray has done some great hurricane science, but has not published anything in the peer-reviewed scientific literature supporting his global warming views. I heard him present his global warming views at a conference last year, and was very disappointed at his poor science. His main arguments were emotional, not scientific. I have been meaning to write a blog on this subject for some time, but it is a very difficult time-consuming blog to write. I greatly respect Dr. Gray's hurricane research, but some of his remarks on global warming the past few years have shown a poor scientific understanding of the problem. The personal insults he has directed at many of his colleagues on the matter have been very unprofessional, as well.
Jeff Masters
On the one hand, yes, we are very likely causing changes and they may lead to big problems in the future.
HOWEVER...
another just as important point comes up when you look at temperature trends for the last 100,000 years. The vast majority of that time was charactarized by DRASTIC shifts from hot to cold... the last 8,000 years or so have been quite anomalous in their climate stability. The earth WILL go back to the more common 'unstable' climate regime at some point. Anthropomorphic global warming will probably intensify this but even if we have NO effect, it is VERY likely that extreme shifts will recur soon, probably in our lifetimes. Therefore, research on the way climate works, and planning for climate change, is very important to our survival as a culture, regardless of greenhouse warming.
look at this! it is vary high for this time of year
how can you tell from the GFS projection if its a Trop Depression/Storm/Hurricane?
Just by the mbs?
If so, what are they projecting this "fantasy" storm to be - thanks,
And is that 3 or 4 consectutive runs now calling for development?
You can tell from the mb,wind barbs,and overall organization of the system.
Interesting information Dr. Masters. Thanks.
I posted this on the other thread just before this one came up:
Posted By: Levi32 at 6:45 AM AKDT on April 30, 2007.
Morning guys :)
That blob is convection generated by a surface trough in the area. There is NO surface circulation if you look on the visible loop.
Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 2:58 AM AKDT on April 30, 2007.
these troughs are barely phasing the High, definitely not going to have a repeat of last year.
SOTC if you don't mind I need to clear something up. That surface map you have there shows nothing that we want to know. If you're looking for troughs and ridges that will steer hurricanes this year, look at the upper air maps, not the surface. That high that you guys are saying extends all the way across the Atlantic doesn't matter at all because it's the high in the upper atmosphere that matters.
Here's a link to a northern hemisphere 500mb map if you want to see it. Link
Anyway, if you want to find troughs and ridges that will affect hurricanes look either on a map like the one I gave you or the initial images of model runs. The surface map tells us nothing.
Don't bother Levi,I've tried.
I live by the ocean in Newport Beach, CA. This time of the year, we get the "June Gloom" effect. We are socked in with the coastal haze until 2 - 3 PM sometimes, and then maybe get 3 hours of sun.
Because of this, is the degree of pollution higher, simply because it is stuck underneath the gloom, and can't escape? I know that my skin gets itchy, eyes watery, and nose drips a lot. Not a pretty sight.
Thanks!
Amy
Although we may not agree "totally" on this subject, I do respect your opinion, since you have the education and experience to back it up!
I would also agree that name-calling is very disappointing, and indeed unprofessional.
But on the other hand, I would like more explanation as to what "bad science" Dr. Gray is using. I look forward to you picking apart Dr. Gray's opinion, and do realize it is time consuming on your part. But Dr. Masters, as a community, we rely on you! And appreciate all that you do! :)
No offense, but when Al Gore spews his "bad science" (yes, Al has some too!), there seems to be little questioning from those who tend to have liberal tendencies, but when Dr. Gray does it, well he is basically dismissed.
My wish is that both sides on the Global Warming issue could throw away the bad feelings, throw away the junk science, and really search for middle ground on what we as a society can do to clean up our environment.
It is my hope, that we can all agree that we want cleaner air, and cleaner water.... imho, there is no need debating this. We just need some leadership in Washington who is credible, and not beholden to special interests. I can say that I have not seen such a person, no matter his/her political affiliation.
I just am so tired of those who want to bash, blame, name call, etc! I still believe that the Jury is out on Global Warming..... we just don't have all the facts we need to make a conclusion. I hope all sides will work together to get us there!
I know i havent posted much but I have atlantic hurricane formation questions. Thank you in advance for answers to my questions.
1.What causes tropical waves to form off the tip of africa?
2.What gets them to start spinning?
Didnt see anyone answer this and didnt want it to get left behind. But basically the ITCZ(Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) circles the globe within roughly 10 degrees north/south of the equator depending on the time of year. Much of the time the ITCZ is just a bunch of thunderstorms with no real organization. But sometimes there are areas of enhanced thunderstorms that are organized into what are called 'waves' that have weak low pressure areas associated with them. While these waves can be found in the ITCZ anywhere around the world, I believe the heating due to the African continent is favorable for there development. Many times you can see the waves coming from across the continent, 1000s of miles before they encounter the ocean.
To answer what gets them spinning, it’s the same thing that causes every other low pressure system, the coriolis effect. Here’s the Wiki on coriolis effect
Dr. Gray has done some great hurricane science, but has not published anything in the peer-reviewed scientific literature supporting his global warming views. I heard him present his global warming views at a conference last year, and was very disappointed at his poor science. His main arguments were emotional, not scientific. I have been meaning to write a blog on this subject for some time, but it is a very difficult time-consuming blog to write. I greatly respect Dr. Gray's hurricane research, but some of his remarks on global warming the past few years have shown a poor scientific understanding of the problem. The personal insults he has directed at many of his colleagues on the matter have been very unprofessional, as well.
Jeff Masters
Thank you Dr. Masters. I've heard it said by many people over and over, Dr. Grey is an excellent forecaster and meterologist, but not a very good climatologist. Its unfortunate that a man once so highly respected in the community for his good science and forcasting ability would devolve into letting emotion, opinions, and loose science influence his views.
If he would only do what his peers have done. He needs to write out his ideas with fact based analysis, and submit to peer review his dissention regarding climate change. I'm sure that I, as well as many others, would be vastly interested and would gladly read it. For some reason, however, I get the feeling that Dr. William Grey feels he is above the critique of his peers, and does not need to subit to them. He seems to think that everyone should just take what he says as gospel. Until the day comes when he finally subits, I fear his voice will be perceived by many (and the media will continue feed the idea) that his is mearly the voice of an angry, bitter old man.
It gets dicier when trying to blame it all on people. But if you've ever walked out of a dense, tree-shaded lot and climbed onto your blacktop roof in July, you can't be serious to tell me you don't think people have any effect whatsoever on Earth's climate.
Here's the rub, again IMHO: If earth is really heating up at a fairly rapid pace, does it make sense to quibble over who/what is to blame? Why not just modify some of our behavior to make some adjustments back towards temps that we and the rest of present-day nature are used to? Hey, if we plant too many trees and cool off the earth too much, we can always go cut the offending trees down!! (being facetious there)
19:15 GMT le 30 avril 2007
Dr. Masters,
I live by the ocean in Newport Beach, CA. This time of the year, we get the "June Gloom" effect. We are socked in with the coastal haze until 2 - 3 PM sometimes, and then maybe get 3 hours of sun.
Because of this, is the degree of pollution higher, simply because it is stuck underneath the gloom, and can't escape? I know that my skin gets itchy, eyes watery, and nose drips a lot. Not a pretty sight.
Thanks!
Amy
Anytime you have stagnant air with light winds, air pollution has the potential to build up if there is a pollution source nearby. When the sun comes out and has been cooking this air for a few hours is when I would expect the highest ozone levels to happen. If late afternoon is when you observe your symptoms, then they could weel be air pollution-related. You could also get some high levels of ozone in the morning, if a nightime land breeze brings polluted air from the city to the coast. I would check out the EPA a href=http://www.airnow.gov to look at pollution maps to see if these match what you're describing.
Jeff Masters
Looks like a Tropical storm in the south bay of campecia.http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2006102512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour= Animation
I'm not sure if anyone answered your questions. Just in case, while I'm no expert, I'll give it a shot.
1. What causes tropical waves off Africa?
I believe the origins are actually in east Africa and grow as they go over the humid tropics. Just a guess on that.
2. What starts them spinning?
It's called the corriolis effect. Not sure about the spelling, but due to the curvature of the earth, the distance around the planet (lattitudinally) increases as you approach the equator. The difference between the northern part of the storm and the southern part sets up the spin. Notice the rotation is counter clockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere.
Just a rough description off the top of my head. Perhaps some of the sites experts can help.
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