Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Greensburg tornado an EF-5; coastal storm will bring 3-5' storm surge to Carolinas
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 14:42 GMT le 07 mai 2007 +4
The huge, 1.4 mile-wide tornado that devastated Greensburg, KS on Friday night, May 4, was an EF-5 tornado on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. A preliminary damage survey by the National Weather Service found that the storm likely had 205 mph winds, putting it just above the 200 mph wind threshold for an EF5 rating. This is the first tornado ever rated as an EF5 using the new scale, adopted in February of 2007, and the first tornado to receive a "5" rating since the May 3, 1999 Moore-Bridge Creek tornado that devastated the southern suburbs of Oklahoma City. Had the Greensburg tornado hit downtown Chicago, the death toll could have easily been in the thousands, as I discussed last month in my blog, "Big Wind in the Windy City".

The severe storm action finally quieted down yesterday in Kansas and the Plains; only 11 reports of tornadoes were received, compared to 93 on Saturday and 33 on Friday. The severe weather action should stay at a slow simmer through Wednesday over the Plains; the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has portions of the region under its "Slight Risk" area for severe weather through Wednesday. Flooding is a major concern now; most of eastern Kansas, plus large portions of Oklahoma, Texas, Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota are under flood warnings. More heavy thunderstorm rains during the week are expected to add to the problem.

We've saved some extraordinary 1 Mb animations of the radar reflectivity and Doppler velocities of the tornado. I asked wunderground meteorologist and tornado expert Rob Carver to comment on what's going on in the animations, and here was his analysis:

This was likely an example of cyclic mesocyclogenesis. In a nutshell, the rear-flank downdraft surges out, wraps around and occludes the mesocyclone (Meso A for short). Meso A then veers to the left and dies, this is why tornado family members curve to the left as they dissipate. While Meso A is dying, a new meso spins up and becomes the dominant meso. Now, while I've seen plenty of simulated cyclic cases where the hook retreats when Meso A occludes, I don't think I've seen anything as dramatic.


Wunderblogger Mike Theiss was out chasing the weekend storms; be sure to tune into his blog over the next few days to read his chase accounts.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the May 7, 2007 coastal storm.

Coastal Carolina storm
A powerful non-tropical low pressure system formed off the coast of North Carolina last night, and is bringing tropical storm-force winds as high as 55 mph to the waters offshore the Carolina coast, according to the latest QuikSCAT satellite wind estimates. The North Carolina Diamond Shoals buoy had 17 foot seas and sustained winds of 43 mph at 9am EDT this morning, and buoy 41001 about 175 miles east of Cape Hatteras recorded sustained winds of 62 mph gusting to 80 mph at 1am this morning. Seas were 41 feet at this buoy this morning! The strong winds will bring 10-20 foot seas and significant beach erosion to the shores of North Carolina, South Carolina, and northeast Florida through Wednesday. A 3-5 foot storm surge is expected along portions of the North Carolina coast through Tuesday morning. The latest set of computer model runs have the storm drifting slowly southwest, and bring it ashore between the South Carolina and northern Florida coast on Wednesday. The storm will start to develop thunderstorm activity and a warm core, but will probably not have time to become fully subtropical and become Subtropical Storm Andrea. However, the storm is only expected to weaken slowly, and will have an impact similar to a tropical storm in regards to offshore winds and coastal flooding today and Tuesday. If the storm does indeed make landfall on Wednesday as expected, it will most likely be of tropical depression strength, with top sustained winds around 30-35 mph. Heavy rains of 1-3 inches can be expected to the north of where the center makes landfall, but rains will not be as significant as what a tropical storm would bring.

I'll have an update on this storm Tuesday morning.
Jeff Masters
Raging Waters - Mill Creek1 (Cptkirk)
Same location - evenig shots!
Raging Waters - Mill Creek1
()
Storm Cloud Formation (FT2)
Detail of Turbulance Under the Trough on 05/06/2007 in SE Iowa.
Storm Cloud Formation
Categories: Tornado
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151. moonlightcowboy 18:36 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
SJ, it could be me stretching the blog. Right now, I'm using FFox. What causes it and how does it get fixed?

Thanks
Member Since: 9 juillet 2006 Posts: 179 Comments: 28118
152. ForecasterColby 18:37 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
:Hey there Chucktown, welcome from another Charlestonian! Yep, dry air is giving this system hell right now.

---------------------

The dry air intrusion isn't giving the system hell at all. It's normal for extratropical cyclones to have a dry notch on their southeast sides.
153. Tazmanian 18:37 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
huh? i dont ues FireFox i ues IE
Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5088 Comments: 111348
154. Patrap 18:38 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
switch to FireFox 2..its Better David..
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111464
155. MissBennet 18:39 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
So, I know this is way off anyone's radar right now (hehehe, sorry for the bad pun)what with the lukewarm,hybrid, kinda-like-a-Tropical-storm thingy off of the Carolinas; but does anyone know what we're up to on the Tornado count for 2007? Are we getting close to the 2005 number? Or still way off?

It just seems like we've had a banner couple of months for these things and I just want to know if we'll break the record.

Thanks!
156. seminolesfan 18:39 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
moonlight-if you're not posting img tags then you wont strech it.
Member Since: 14 juin 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1716
158. StormJunkie 18:39 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
No moonlight, pictures with a width larger then 640 stretch the blog if you are using IE. Fire Fox will auto resize the pictures. IE shows what is posted, therefore everything with a width of over 640 blows the margins on the blog if you are using IE.
Member Since: 17 août 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15218
159. StormJunkie 18:40 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
Only chance it has is to cut it off and get some moisture around the center SSIG, but you are right, it is beautiful out. Cool low, humidity...
Member Since: 17 août 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15218
160. Tazmanian 18:41 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
ok link to FireFox 2 Please pat
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162. melwerle 18:42 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
I'm with you Stsimon - here a bit north of you in savannah and it's BEAUTIFUL. Great breeze, NO SMOKE today. First day for us in a couple of weeks that's the temp outside is comfortable (not too hot).
Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
163. Patrap 18:42 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
Thats Excatly why it wont STSIGuy..to much Mid lattitude air being entrained. It wont have time to do the nasty. Not the setup and motion for that quite yet.
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164. Patrap 18:43 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
Here is the download TAz-aroo...Link
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165. IKE 18:43 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
Good gosh...dewpoints are in the twenties in GA.
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166. StormJunkie 18:44 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
I did not realize you were down here FC ☺

Taz, if you are using IE, then you should be having to scroll right to read posts.
Member Since: 17 août 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15218
167. Patrap 18:44 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
It has all the best tools for Blogging too.Even a built in spellchecker
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168. Tazmanian 18:46 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
ok pat


ok SJ
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169. StormJunkie 18:46 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
CB just added to the blown margins.

Nice job CB!~(
Member Since: 17 août 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15218
170. Patrap 18:47 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
When diagnosing the fray.A TD..a TS..storm of tropical possibilities. The overall look from above dosent always tell the story. All one has to do is look at the Inland dewpoints and the temps inland to see this one wont be a tropically pure one. Its to far North in origin too early..its Baroclinic in origin. Transition to warm cored would take days ..this one is neat. But its not invest worthy.
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111464
171. IKE 18:48 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
Dewpoints in the 20's and 30's....that is almost winter like dewpoints.
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172. IKE 18:49 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
Makes for a good hair day!
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174. seminolesfan 18:49 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
CB just added to the blown margins.

Nice job CB!~(


Yup, he's a piece of work!
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175. Thundercloud01221991 18:49 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
Even if it doesnt form into a tropical system it just goes to show that we are this far away from the season but this close to a named storm and that showes that we should have a very very active Season
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176. IKE 18:50 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
cyclonebusted....what's with the pictures? God not another year of tunnels!
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177. seminolesfan 18:50 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
mark him as spam
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179. seminolesfan 18:52 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
Admin Notice When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.
Member Since: 14 juin 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1716
182. seminolesfan 19:00 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
The capt. would know too. He's sampled 'tunnel' from all over the universe.
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183. HUGOistay 19:00 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
I'm sorry, but it's just gonna be a good day to go surfing people
184. nash28 19:00 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
Good luck holding SST's to 75 degrees and under for the duration of the summer season....

Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
186. MissBennet 19:03 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
Nevermind all, answered my own question.

For preliminary report on number of tornados so far in 2007 here's the Link
188. StoryOfTheCane 19:04 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
78-80 degrees would be my guess cyclone
189. Patrap 19:05 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
..nash28 brings sanity to the table.Thanks ,WB
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192. StoryOfTheCane 19:07 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
the first "hype" of the season behind us

195. hurricane23 19:08 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
TWD 2:05 PM

WESTERN ATLANTIC...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRES
CENTER OFF THE SE OF UNITED STATES. A 998 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ON
THE 12Z MAP NEAR 32N73W. THIS STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N38W THEN CONTINUES SW
CROSSING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. LATEST VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER W-CENTRAL CUBA. CURRENTLY...THE MAIN
IMPACT WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS THE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS
AS A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT HAS SET UP BETWEEN THE LOW AND
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SEVERAL ADVISORIES
AND WATCHES/WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED ALONG THE COAST FROM SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BEYOND THE CAROLINAS WHERE ROUGH SURF AND VERY
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE
SE COAST OF U.S. TUE THROUGH WED...RAINFALL WILL BE ALSO A
CONCERN. FOR MORE DETAILS...SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL FORECAST
OFFICES.
Member Since: 14 mai 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13276
197. Patrap 19:10 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
A tropical cyclone can be visualized as a giant vertical heat engine supported by mechanics driven by physical forces such as the rotation and gravity of the Earth.[13] In another way, tropical cyclones could be viewed as a special type of Mesoscale Convective Complex, which continues to develop over a vast source of relative warmth and moisture. Condensation leads to higher wind speeds, as a tiny fraction of the released energy is converted into mechanical energy;[14] the faster winds and lower pressure associated with them in turn cause increased surface evaporation and thus even more condensation. Much of the released energy drives updrafts that increase the height of the storm clouds, speeding up condensation.[15] This gives rise to factors that provide the system with enough energy to be self-sufficient and cause a positive feedback loop, where it can draw more energy as long as the source of heat, warm water, remains. Factors such as a continued lack of equilibrium in air mass distribution would also give supporting energy to the cyclone. The rotation of the Earth causes the system to spin, an effect known as the Coriolis effect, giving it a cyclonic characteristic and affecting the trajectory of the storm.
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111464
198. Patrap 19:10 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
4
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200. HUGOistay 19:11 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
Reverse Cold Front!
201. StoryOfTheCane 19:12 GMT le 07 mai 2007    
osted By: cyclonebuster at 7:08 PM GMT on May 07, 2007.
So anything less than 78 is good if you don't want a warm core system.



Yes, that is the general rule of thumb.

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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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