Warmest January-April on record; new record Arctic sea ice minimum
April 2007 was the third warmest April for the globe on record, and the first four months of 2007 were the warmest ever, according to statistics released this week by the National Climatic Data Center. The global average temperature for April was 1.19�F/0.66�C above the 20th century mean. Over land, April global temperatures were the warmest ever measured. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (seventh warmest on record), thanks to the cooling associated with the disappearance of the winter El Ni�o event.
April temperatures were particularly warm across portions of Europe and Siberia, where readings of 5�C (9�F) above average were common (Figure 1). The UK recorded its warmest and driest April on record. In the U.S., April ranked near normal in temperature, but a record cold snap hit the eastern half of the country April 4-10, setting 900 daily low temperature records. The long duration of the cold outbreak, combined with the large number of hours that remained below freezing, and strong winds that occurred in many areas, contributed to crop losses that could reach into the billions of dollars. The damaging effects of the record cold were made worse by near-record warmth in March that helped induce an earlier spring blossom--in some cases two weeks prior to crop development in 2006. More than 2,500 daily record-high temperatures were set in the contiguous U.S. in March, and it was our second warmest March on record.
April's cold snap in the U.S. shows that although the globe as a whole may be warming, there is still plenty of natural variability capable of bringing very cold weather to local regions.
Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for April 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
Arctio sea ice extent
After three months of not recording a record monthly minimum, sea ice extent in the Arctic recorded a new record low extent in April. The record warmth of the first four months of 2007, combined with the 8th lowest snow cover on record observed in winter 2006/2007, combined to produce the record low ice extent (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for April, for the years 1979-2007. April 2007 set a new record for the lowest Arctic sea ice extent measured. April sea ice coverage has declined about 9% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Atlantic storms
The computer models have been forecasting development of several low pressure systems along the East Coast over the next few days. All of these lows will be non-tropical in nature, due to the high levels of wind shear. The models are beginning to hint that wind shear could relax over the ocean waters north of Panama next week, and we may have to watch that area for tropical development if the shear does indeed relax as forecast.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Look at all the blue shades in this area.We need this across the atlantic to get some development.
Hier in Switzerland we had the driest and warmest (+ 5°C) April since recording startet.
You mean at least since human records of sea ice levels have been in existence.
I think there was much less GLOBAL sea ice, in both polar regions, 250 million years ago.
But why raise a an arguement over a "hair follicle size" of data for a 4.6 billion year old space rock?
Because unless you happen to live longer than a "hair follicle" of time (I don't know about y'all but I'm a mortal human) disrupted global climate with possible deleterious effects on agriculture (the foundation of our global civilization) is reason enough to "raise" the argument.
By the way this "4.6 billion year old space rock" is the only home we have currently. So why should we continue our reckless experiment with green house gases?
Beginning about 70 years ago, some traditional Hopi formulated a message to the rest of the world that there was a rising danger that humankind's lack of spiritual attention to the world was going to lead to disaster. The form this disaster would take was that there would be violent storms and all kinds of disruption that would eventually threaten human beings around the world. It had happened before, they said, and all signs, including ancient prophecies, are that it will happen again. The individual who emerged as spokesperson for this was Thomas Banyacya. A very interesting element to the message was that proof of their message was to be found in the American's own libraries and scientific papers.
There is every evidence that this is happening, just as the traditional Hopi predicted, and the major leadership of the world is not acting in an effective way to meet the threat. This August, the Bush administration finally issued a statement acknowledging that human activity may be contributing to global warming. If you think that radical Islamic terrorism is scary, wait until you see global warming.
Scientists are certain that greenhouse gasses, especially CO2, have a history of altering global climate patterns, a history that goes back perhaps at least 900 million years. A dramatic but widely-held theory is that 600 million years ago the earth was an ice ball trapped in a glacial period and that it escaped this seemingly permanent condition when volcanoes released enough CO2 into the atmosphere to create a greenhouse effect which warmed things up to perhaps an average temperature of 120 F, causing hundreds of thousands of years of rain which trapped the CO2 and put it back in the earth. Eventually the earth stabilized. That was when the dramatic proliferation of life forms, including multi-cellular animals, appeared. There is pretty good evidence to support this theory. The ice may have been a kilometer thick. Greenhouse gases do cause climate change. http://i.am/jah/envird.htm
The earth is getting warmer and its average temperature has risen about one degree Fahrenheit since 1830 - at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. The last 20 years have been the warmest in 12,000 years and the warming trend is worldwide. People who study tree rings find evidence that in the last 20 years there has been an unprecedented rate of change in the climate and among the best evidence for the effect of this change is that glaciers, worldwide, are receding and disappearing. There are glaciers in the Central Andes. Even there, glaciers have been retreating dramatically. Some are retreating at the rate of almost 100 feet per year. They could be gone entirely in 50 years. Forty percent of the ice has disappeared in some places. In others, numerous glaciers have already disappeared. For thousands of years, glaciers have maintained a record of what has happened over the centuries. Scientists collect ice cores from the tropics and the polar regions. They contain the history of climate going back to a half million years. Ice cores record that CO2 never got higher than 300 parts per million. Today, we find 360 ppm, strong (even irrefutable) evidence that humans are contributing to dramatic changes in the composition of the atmosphere. Scientists suspect there is a threshold beyond which dramatic and irreversible and unpredictable climate change could be triggered. http://i.am/jah/signs.htm
The impact of the climate change we have already can be seen in Alaska. In just 30 years, Alaska's temperature has risen an average of five degrees and glaciers there are melting. Since 1995 some have receded 10 to 20 feet a year. And the rate of change may be accelerating. Climatologists are alarmed. In 50 years there may be no glaciers in Glacier National Park. Fossil fuels are changing the chemistry of the atmosphere. It is the northern areas that will experience this warming first. In Alaska, the first thing is the melting of the permafrost. This thawing could spread in just five years. Already telephone poles are leaning and the ground is opening up in places, leaving holes in the land. The Alaska pipeline was built on the permafrost, but there was no planning for the possibility the permafrost might melt and the pipeline is threatened.
But the most devastating short-term impact may be from the unexpected. There are 120 million acres of forest in Alaska, and these forests are beginning to die on millions of acres. The destruction has been rapid and devastating and trees on three million acres have already been killed by insect infestation. Some species which threaten forests thrive in warmer weather, like the spruce bark beetle, which eats the bark. These beetles arrived with the onset of warmer weather and in some places there are so many beetles that people have been forced to abandoned their homes and cabins. In southern Alaska, more trees have died in a few years than in the previous 70 years.
In East Africa it rained excessively in traditionally arid lands and this led to extensive flooding which overwhelmed the water management systems. One result was a cholera epidemic from contaminated water. The mosquito population exploded and a malaria epidemic ensued in places in Kenya where mosquitoes were previously rare or unknown. People blamed El Nino, but global warming probably had a hand in the disasters. The problems didn't end there. As the earth heats up, the land dries up. Moisture is released through evaporation into the atmosphere, making it available for weather events. Thus there is flooding, record rainfalls and sometimes storms stronger than previously. While one place is experiencing flooding, other places experience drought. California is flooded, while Indonesia experiences drought. It is just like the Hopi warned. http://i.am/jah/chiefdan.htm
The natural climate system can change rapidly. If it happened rapidly in the past, it could happen in the future. Temperature records are being broken. It seems inevitable that we will reach four times the CO2 levels in the atmosphere from a century ago and maybe soon. Of all the emissions sent up today, fully half will still be in the atmosphere 100 years from now. By the time we can prove beyond a doubt that human activity is causing the warming, it will be far too late to do anything about it. American politicians, who compete among themselves selling visions of wishful thinking from everything from the economy to terrorism have not performed well in facing this threat. Earlier this year a movie, ''The Day After Tomorrow'', dramatized (and action-adventurized) sudden global freezing (an after effect of warming), but even if the climate changes are much less dramatic than depicted in this movie, the question arises: what about the day after the day after tomorrow? The U.S. government does see climate change as a national security threat, but it's actually much greater than that. It is a threat to species survival. Ours, and many others.
Had our politicians shown some backbone 30-some years ago during the Arab Oil Embargo and committed some MEANINGFUL dollars to alternative-energy research, our world might be very, very different today. Pundits scream about what this would cost us today, but I'm always reminded of what our Nation achieved in the relatively short years of the space race once we committed our will to it.
All of this is besides the point that started this conversation, which is the price we are paying and look to pay for this feckless experiment with Earth's thermostat. As I've pointed out in a prior blog, does it really matter if humans are the sole cause or not, of Global Warming? Why not do what we can to help Earth return to more of what we know to be normal? Hey, if we plant too many trees, we can always cut down some later!
How many votes for 'no GW posts after June 1st!'?
you have my vote
Good to see you K8 :~)
Been awhile SF ☺
I'll vote yes to that. I really don't much care to discuss how, why, or who of the GW debate. That said, I think the "get away from oil" discussion should be permitted and encouraged all day any day! We should be a smart enough species to realize we have to get away from it!
i do want to point out that there is a climate change blog on here
I'm just saying that I think the majority of folks reading this TROPICAL WEATHER BLOG would agree that there is a better forum somewhere else to post comments regarding CLIMATE CHANGE.
Problem is...that's the topic of the blog. Seems there was this same situation last year...right before the Atlantic hurricane season started.
I still say the oil issue is much bigger and more worthy of debate then the GW thing. And I am not talking about debating oil due to GW, but the many other reasons we need to get away from it.
Back to work for me. See y'all later ☺
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