Barry weakens, douses Florida with needed rains
Tropical Storm Barry is steadily weakening as it races towards the Florida coast. Winds have decreased to 40 mph, as observed by the 9:30am EDT Hurricane Hunter report, which found winds at 1,500 altitude of 47 mph. The pressure has risen 2 mb in the past two hours, and now stands at 1002 mb. Barry is embedded in a zone of strong wind shear--about 30 knots. This shear ripped away most of Barry's deep thunderstorm activity last night, and pushed these storms over the Florida Peninsula. Satellite loops shows that some heavy thunderstorm activity has returned near the center of circulation, so the shear has not been able to totally destroy the storm yet. As Barry continues today over cooler waters, it should continue to weaken, and residents of Florida should expect only minor wind damage. I doubt any station will experience sustained winds of tropical storm strength (39 mph), although gusts of 50-55 mph are likely. The main threat from Barry will be isolated tornadoes that could spin up in some of the heavier thunderstorms over land. The storm surge may cause minor flooding in the Tampa Bay area. Currently, tides are running a foot or two above normal there, and will increase with a persistent onshore wind to 3 to 5 feet above normal this afternoon from the Tampa Bay area northward to Citrus County and 1 to 3 feet south of Tampa Bay and Levy County.
Barry will do far more good than harm--the storm has already dumped 1-5 inches of rain over most of Florida, with more rain to come. Heavy rain from Barry will affect the Carolinas on Sunday, and could cause some local flooding problems there. However, Barry will lose its tropical storm status after crossing Florida, and is not a threat to reintensify after crossing into the Atlantic Ocean.
Figure 1. Total rainfall from the Tampa Bay radar.
A sign of things to come?
The hurricane season of 2007 is in third place for the earliest year that the second named storm occurred. The record is held by 1887, when the second named storm formed on May 17. Second place is held by 1908, when the second storm of the year formed on May 26.
There is no relationship between high activity early in hurricane season and high activity during the main August-October peak of the season. For example, the 1908 hurricane season turned out to be an ordinary season with 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and one intense hurricane.
June outlook
My outlook for the first two weeks of June was posted yesterday.
Radio play
National Public Radio's The Story program aired a 30-minute interview with me yesterday about my flight into Hurricane Hugo in 1989. The MP3 of the interview is at http://thestory.org/archive/the_story_263_Hunting _Hurricanes.mp3.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Gotta watch shear...
http://wxforum.freehostia.com/phpBB2/index.php
Eulogy: Short lived and fast, triumphant in the face of lots of sheer, and the Floridians will be for ever grateful. (at least until the next rain storm hits)
I think Barry likes it better as a extra-tropical system anyway. Down to 995 off Charleston.
Lake O Water Level
It should continue to come up over the next week or two as all this water makes it's way south in the rivers and swamps.
Morning mel ☺
You may get a little more rain as the backside passes through.
How it up near you?
I don't see it, plus it is too far out.
Gfs model showing Hurricane/Ts hitting south florida on 13th of june
I don't see it, plus it is too far out.
its south of Cuba. But 9 days is too far out. i will give it 2 more days of consistency.
Has anyone noticed that the weather channel is a little well, late on their shows? Like "what if a major hurricane hit Miami" and "climate change may be making hurricanes more intense".
I don't know why u have this issue with TWC on the Miami hurricane thing. I think yesterday quite a number of people clarified that while Miami-Dade County did receive a direct hit from Andrew, and while NHC does consider a storm centre passing within 50 miles of a location to be a direct hit, Andrew's small radius of Cat 3+ winds meant that most of the serious damage was confined to areas well south of the downtown Miami area. One of the reasons why Homestead was such a tragedy was because it was only AFTER the storm that the majority of the people realized how serious the damage was to that area, mainly due to Andrew's small size.
TWC is focusing on a future storm that would hit the more highly populated and developed downtown area, including Miami Beach, and that would be of a greater radius than Andrew. Such a storm hitting that area in 2007 would be a very different proposition from, say the 1926 storm which devastated a newly burgeoning Miami and sent the area into an early depression. Such a storm striking that area today would wreak havoc not only on Miami-Dade's business centre, but also on much of Broward County to the north, where Ft. Lauderdale and its sister communities like Hollywood sprawl westward to the Everglades. Check out this story from the Sun-Sentinel for details on the older storm. Then compare the development in Dade and Broward Counties then with what it is now.
Additionally, TWC actually builds past events into these programs. They actually have a section on the program which says "it DID happen"! What they are doing is bringing the past events into recollection for the general public and then considering what effects similar events would have on the location in modern times.
I can't see why you would consider this "late". If anything, it is rather timely.
Good and wet mel! Back side should pass through here by early afternoon and it looks as if most of the heavier shower activity will remain a little ways inland today though.
Yep !!
Got a total of 1.28 Inches so far from it.
God knows we need it.
BTW Good morning all
I made a boo-boo; the storm that devastated Nassau in 1926 was the JULY hurricane. Until 2005 this was the strongest July hurricane on record. By the time the great Miami hurricane struck several weeks later, I guess there wasn't much left TO destroy. I also think that the angle of approach of the early storm, more from the south than from the east, made its winds and surge more destructive here.
My back yard stil has enough water in it to be classed as a Lake...lol
Hope everyone has a fantastic Sunday!
Gainesville (Where i live got 2.7 inches)
Severe Tropical Cyclone "Gonu" is forecast to intensify further. Currently at 55 knots and 988 hPa.
Link
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