Barry weakens, douses Florida with needed rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 14:14 GMT le 02 juin 2007

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Tropical Storm Barry is steadily weakening as it races towards the Florida coast. Winds have decreased to 40 mph, as observed by the 9:30am EDT Hurricane Hunter report, which found winds at 1,500 altitude of 47 mph. The pressure has risen 2 mb in the past two hours, and now stands at 1002 mb. Barry is embedded in a zone of strong wind shear--about 30 knots. This shear ripped away most of Barry's deep thunderstorm activity last night, and pushed these storms over the Florida Peninsula. Satellite loops shows that some heavy thunderstorm activity has returned near the center of circulation, so the shear has not been able to totally destroy the storm yet. As Barry continues today over cooler waters, it should continue to weaken, and residents of Florida should expect only minor wind damage. I doubt any station will experience sustained winds of tropical storm strength (39 mph), although gusts of 50-55 mph are likely. The main threat from Barry will be isolated tornadoes that could spin up in some of the heavier thunderstorms over land. The storm surge may cause minor flooding in the Tampa Bay area. Currently, tides are running a foot or two above normal there, and will increase with a persistent onshore wind to 3 to 5 feet above normal this afternoon from the Tampa Bay area northward to Citrus County and 1 to 3 feet south of Tampa Bay and Levy County.

Barry will do far more good than harm--the storm has already dumped 1-5 inches of rain over most of Florida, with more rain to come. Heavy rain from Barry will affect the Carolinas on Sunday, and could cause some local flooding problems there. However, Barry will lose its tropical storm status after crossing Florida, and is not a threat to reintensify after crossing into the Atlantic Ocean.


Figure 1. Total rainfall from the Tampa Bay radar.

A sign of things to come?
The hurricane season of 2007 is in third place for the earliest year that the second named storm occurred. The record is held by 1887, when the second named storm formed on May 17. Second place is held by 1908, when the second storm of the year formed on May 26.

There is no relationship between high activity early in hurricane season and high activity during the main August-October peak of the season. For example, the 1908 hurricane season turned out to be an ordinary season with 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and one intense hurricane.

June outlook
My outlook for the first two weeks of June was posted yesterday.

Radio play
National Public Radio's The Story program aired a 30-minute interview with me yesterday about my flight into Hurricane Hugo in 1989. The MP3 of the interview is at http://thestory.org/archive/the_story_263_Hunting _Hurricanes.mp3.

Jeff Masters

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322. Patrap
00:44 GMT le 03 juin 2007
WV Atlantic Link
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128314
321. HurricaneFCast
00:42 GMT le 03 juin 2007
FLfishy- That was the last one for a good week at least. No more organized systems at the moment or forecasted in the near future..
Member Since: 20 avril 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 1482
313. FLfishyweather
00:36 GMT le 03 juin 2007
Hello all! Can anyone fill me in a little about any possible storms to hit south florida? If you can, thanks.
Member Since: 1 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
309. tropicalwxdude
00:22 GMT le 03 juin 2007
Some models are pointing that Barbara will redevelop in the Gulf. I was watching the GFS and it had a strong storm hitting SE Florida on the 13th. What do you ppl think of both of these?
307. Rodek
00:22 GMT le 03 juin 2007
jp,

Thank you for responding to my questions. 870-1085.7 is quite an impressive span of pressure!

Troy
305. Patrap
00:17 GMT le 03 juin 2007
Theres only ONE Barry Baby...4
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128314
304. StormJunkie
00:16 GMT le 03 juin 2007
Evening all ☺

I hear ya thel! Looks as if we are going to get doused. Pretty much been non stop all day. I see this is down to 998mb and winds are on the up here gusting to maybe 25mph 15 miles inland some thunder present also. NWS says 45mph gusts, not sure if they will get that high though. I think it all depends on how low the pressure gets as it moves northward. I am also wondering if the Gulf Stream aids in promoting convection after midnight. Any thoughts?
Member Since: 17 août 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16566
302. WPBHurricane05
00:05 GMT le 03 juin 2007
CMC shows the remnants of Barry moving out and high pressure taking control again......Link
Member Since: 31 juillet 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
300. Rodek
11:47 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Had a couple questions for you folks....

Question 1. The lower the pressure in mb a system is, the stronger the storm or the worse the weather is correct?

Question 2. The pressure in my area (zip code 32547) is currently 1007mb....What are the lowest and highest pressures ever recorded?
299. WPBHurricane05
7:47 PM EDT on June 02, 2007
Western Caribbean shear Link
Gulf of Mexico shear Link
Member Since: 31 juillet 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
298. FLfishyweather
11:34 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Don't worry jphurricane, me too. And I just noticed that the carribean looks pretty favorable for a storm to develope. All it needs is a wave and you got a system. I mean, if Barry formed while it was facing 20 knots of wind shear...
Member Since: 1 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
295. thelmores
11:17 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
nasty cells heading towards Charleston...... look out Junkie!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
293. thelmores
11:04 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
all observations at 6:50pm

Station 41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA 6:50pm
(WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
(WSPD): 19.4 kts
(GST): 27.2 kts
(WVHT): 11.2 ft
(PRES): 29.48 in
(PTDY):-0.12 in ( Falling Rapidly )

Station 41004 - EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC
(WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
(WSPD): 31.1 kts
(GST): 36.9 kts
(WVHT): 11.2 ft
(PRES): 29.70 in
(PTDY): -0.16 in ( Falling Rapidly )

Station 41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy
(WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
(WSPD): 23.3 kts
(GST): 29.1 kts
(WVHT): 7.2 ft
(PRES): 29.81 in
(PTDY): -0.10 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
291. FLfishyweather
11:11 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
oh...cause to me it seemed a little silly at the time, honestly
Member Since: 1 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
286. FLfishyweather
11:00 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Someone please tell me again why it is so important to fight over names and listings of old sub-tropical storms?
Member Since: 1 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
284. Patrap
6:00 PM CDT on June 02, 2007
Heres the 10-day GFSx..Link
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128314
283. stormybil
10:57 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
hi can someone check out the gfs model it shows a ts or hurricane aproching so fla. in 288 hours i know its long range but so was this with barry
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
280. FLfishyweather
10:52 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
I might be speaking for myself, but I wish we could sorta not talk about the topic of Barry 24/7. I can't get it out of my head.
Member Since: 1 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
279. thelmores
10:49 PM GMT on June 02, 2007



will the real Barry stand up?? Then we have an ULL to the west!
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278. StPeteBill
10:50 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Where was the actual landfall of Barry? Sorry if this has already been asked and answered.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
277. thelmores
10:49 PM GMT on June 02, 2007


GIANT coc now....run, it's a Landocane! LOL

Looks more fierce on land! Gonna be a strong Extratropical storm it appears.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
276. Patrap
5:44 PM CDT on June 02, 2007
Fla Extended range radar ..south. Link
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128314
275. FLfishyweather
10:32 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
Hi everyone. I don't mean to change the subject, but that wave over cuba looks a little impresive. I don't know if it will just hit the bahamas and head out to sea or give us MORE rain [hopefully] down in south florida.
Member Since: 1 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
274. StormJunkie
10:16 PM GMT on June 02, 2007
MIMIC got confused as hell during landfall just like me...lol...Seems to be back on it now...
Member Since: 17 août 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16566

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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