Grading NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook
The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) is a text-only product that rates the potential of disturbed areas of weather to turn into tropical depressions or tropical storms. The outlooks are issued four times daily, at 5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm EDT. I've found them to be an excellent guide to what to watch out for. But how accurate are these outlooks? To find out, Jamie Rhome and Dan Brown, who are two of the hurricane specialists that write the Tropical Weather Outlook, verified the accuracy of all the outlooks issued in 2005 and 2006. They used a three-tiered classification of threat based on the following language appearing in the TWO:
High: "A tropical depression could form tonight or the next day."
Medium: "Some slow development is possible."
Low: "Tropical storm formation is not expected."
These forecasts were then graded by looking at the "best track" database of Atlantic hurricanes and seeing if a tropical depression formed within 48 hours of each TWO issued. The results, shown below, reveal that for the Atlantic in the years 2005 and 2006:
-When the TWO said, "A tropical depression could form tonight of the next day," a depression formed within 48 hours 53% of the time.
-When the TWO said, "Some slow development is possible," a tropical depression formed within 48 hours about 20% of the time.
-When the TWO said, "Tropical storm formation is not expected," a tropical depression formed within 48 hours only 3% of the time.
Figure 1. Verification of the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlooks issued in 2005 and 2006. Image credit: Jamie Rhome and Dan Brown, National Hurricane Center.
Jeff Masters
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Am a bit surprised to se how long it's been since Dr. Masters has done an update. Dos anyone know if he's away, or just isn't there that much on which to comment so early in the season?
Would be happy if it's the latter...as a Virgin Islander, I don't share your excitement about things brewing or perking up in the Caribbean...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal.html
that blob in the Carribean is going to be something to watch. That is near the spot where Barry formed.
You're right...it is...
The GFS takes it into the central GOM by this weekend.
This little bit coming of the Yucatan Pennisula looks interesting on Satelite loop.
Loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
Link
Chart are showing a 1011 Low in the North Central GOM, I don't see it.
Maybe it's a heat low...like they get in the desert SW. Temps have been near 100 for the last 3-4 days here in the inland Florida panhandle.
SAL has really spread south in the East Atl
Actually, if ya look at the scale/legend at the bottom of yer pic; the yellow represents the weakest the SAL can be while still being analyzed on that map.
So actually, the SAL is diluted across the entire E. Atl. Meaning it's not nearly as much of an inhibiting factor as in 06.
Morning Everyone!!!
Everything coming off Africa now has to punch trough that dry air. 93L didn't have to.
Just trying to let ya know that dust is just a real light layer, unlike last yrs thick blanket.
http://www.eumetsat.int/Home/Main/Image_Gallery/Derived_Product_Imagery/index.htm?l=en
In the EUMETSAT pic you posted you can see the intensity of dry air/dust is more intense near 93L and towards the next wave leaving the coast now. After the wave still over the continental center, a marked difference is noted in the dry air presence.
I'm sorry to disagree w/ your opinion, but IMHO the dust will continue to not be at the forefront of inhibiting factors for CV storms.
the western caribbean is really unsettled at the moment. the ULL although showing signs OF WEAKENING IS STILL ENHANCING THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE REGION. THE AREA WILLHAVE DIFFICULTY IN ORGANISATION because of high wind shear.
Link
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