Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

We only got .14 inch here in Gainesville today. Thought it was closer to .25 but it moved through pretty quickly. Had 2 lightning strikes within about 1000 feet of the house within 2 minutes of each other--it was a decent cell.

Hi JP,
Has there ever been an F5 tornado in FL?

nm

That site also shows 84% of FL tornadoes are F0-1.

anyone see how the models show the Bermuda High spreading West a pattern?

Night all. Will catch up on the Carib system tomorrow. Exhausted. Spent the past 4 hours learning to do some video editing. Small sample in my blog. Please let me know how the loads times are and what you think of the video.

Thanks all.

Night

look Tropical wave are comeing more N then they have been

yes 03 i been watching that not good news if you live in FL may be good news if you got the rain but not good news if you got the high winds

Thanks guys for the great tornado info great blog Dr.Masters has

yeah see that Taz

good night 03



play nic all have a good night ok

I hear u, Taz! Good observation! Keep watching! Thanks! U have a good nite, too!

Well Here's something a bit scary:
The images you are about to see are from June 12th, 2005 and June 12th, 2007
As you all know 2005 was the worst Atlantic Hurricane Season on record. This year is not projected to have near that kind of activity, but should it be? Here is something interesting.. We all know that in 2005 the SST's were WELL above normal.. But how are the SST's this year.. Well.. Previously they were above normal but not as above normal as 2005. However, In the past 2 weeks there has been a significant increase in SST's across the Atlantic. Here are the SST's of the Gulf Of Mexico on June 12th, 2005:

As you can see, for June 12th, those are extremely warm.. Almost 88 Degrees in some spots. Now, Here are the SST's for the Gulf of Mexico as of June 12th, 2007:


There are no visible areas of the Gulf Of Mexico with SST's below 80 degrees and some areas are up to an Amazing 90 Degrees in Mid June! Obviously, This presents an interesting case for an even more Active Hurricane Season.. Will it happen? That remains to be seen. Goodnight Everyone. I just wanted to share this intriguing piece of information with you all.

Points to ponder for sure Taz and HurricaneFCast. What does it all mean?? Have a feeling??

Gnite all, going to try this sleep thing again.

Did you all hear the news about the quiksat ?

Link


I saw a tornado vortex, but the county is only under a Sever Thunder Storm warning. Why is that?

Good question - looks menacing enough to me

I heard a report on fox news today that they do not expect the quiksat to last much longer. In fact, they said it may malfunction this year leaving the forecasters struggling.

Going to sleep every-one. BY3

HurricaneFCast...not totally true. As you can see on those temperture recordings of the GOM, actually 2005 may have been a bit warmer than 2007 in June. Around that time Arlene had just passed, cooling the gulf down a bit. Also, the 2007 GOM tempertures does have a few pockets of lower tempertures (less than 2005). But at the same time 2007 has a few more pockets of higher temps. in some areas; higher than 2005.

So, still we are in the middle of the first month and we passed B. But in '05, B didn't come around until late June...we still have a long way to go to see if this is gonna be anything like '05 or even '04. Also 2005's July was incredible with 2 major storms and a total of 5 named storms. But we know how akward this season has been so far...so it is definately way too early to know how this season will pan out.

Taz- Very true...the waves are coming off of Africa higher....leaving possibly a better percentage for them to survive or develop (even though I doubt it)...I'd be very concerned around July-September time if this pattern continues...we could only just hope for most of them to reccurve out to sea...(missing Bermuda)...LOL

-Justin~

VERY interesting there, HurricaneFCast. That makes me apprehensive this year. weatherblog: Arlene probably didn't cool the waters off that much, if at all. Arlene wasn't a slow-mover, at least I don't remember it being one, and if it upwelled cooler water at all, it may have only been 1°F at most, and was more or likely around 0.5-0.8°F. Weak systems don't really upwell cold water all that badly, unless they meander for awhile. Ophelia is a good example.

Kori- Very well said. I was just about to respond to Weatherblog, but you basically said what I was going to say. Now 2007 is warmer, you can tell, especially in the Northeast GOM, Central GOM, South GOM, and the Caribbean. That's the majority of the area. Also, Temperatures in the area weren't 90 degrees in any area in 2005. That is a very interesting image though, especially if you view the Loop of the past 10 days.. The temperatures have warmed so much.. nearly 4 degrees in the past 10 days... It's amazing. Anyways, We're just playing the waiting game now..

Where do I go to find the forecast for all these models, FLBoy? I wanna see all this for myself.

Seems TD or TS is possible.
Certainly when it goes NW.
Will give us something to watch before the big hurricanes come.
Is it just me thinking or are the SST warming up rapidly?

Aroughleague, please be patient. this is only the calm before the storm. this season will not be as boring as 2006.

shear is suppose to fall a little bit in the coming hours in the carribbian.so we have to wait and see.
There sure is a lot of rain in that blob.
If it developes it could become a TS with a lot of rain.

Aroughleague...Why don't you spend this incubation period learning more about meterology? Wikipedia does an amazing job of defining terms and offers plenty of links within articles so you can really investigate matters thoroughly (complete with pictures!). Sometimes I'll put a term in Google search and then click on the Wikipedia reference...It's presented in an easy to understand format, too.

I don't want it to be like 2004 at all, League.

In 2004, FL got hit by 4 out of those 6 storms, if I recall correctly.

The shear will kill the blob...Yesterday we had a severe thunderstorm go through here. I did not see any damage, but we got some more nice rainfall out of it, near downtown JAX.

mahFl,

not sure about that.
Shear is lower then yesterday in that area
and will fall a little bit more coming hours.
If it goes NE for the day it might have a change to develope.

We can't get rid of you aroughleague.....

looks like that ULL is now moving SE back over the Yucatan. Any thoughts on how this will impact the Caribbean blob?

Link

Aroughleague...I don't know how old you are and I don't really care, but your comments may be perceived as malicious by some. The weather follows its own genesis...and no amount of "wishcasting" will change that. Just some unsolicited advice. I won't say anymore on the subject.

g'mornin all.
Wish that blob would make up it's mind. I'm almost afraid to go N for the weekend!! LOL

good morning all
Hi Storm