Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

us Mets??

is that New York Mets? LOL

LOL we dont use the NAM model at the NWS service for tropcial systems. We use to for Continental Precip and Genosis along with the GFS.

For tropical systems...we go inline with the GFS and GFDL UNLESS we feel another model has a good handle on the situation down there.

The ECMWF is decent for long range.

their have plane plan for friday to check that area when it get into southern gulf

the gfs has this crosing over so. fla in 48 hours or so . alittle south of barrys track . so it doesent seem it has much time to develope .but than again anything can happen with it .

Posted By: marlinsfan1 at 10:15 AM PDT on June 14, 2007.

The rain has begun in my neck of the woods. I live in Pinecrest


Pinecrest ca????



i sure dont see any rain her today

kman, I'm watching the blob of convection almost due east of the area you mentioned in your pic, it's right along the right edge of the pic. You can see a little rotation with it but it might just be from the convection flare it just had that is dying down. do you see it? It is a small area so I'm not expecting anything but it is closer to the mid-Caribb ULH than the area you're talking about so might be more favorable to develop if shear can die down.

ok. i'm bring out my drawings based on the current situation and model analysis.

LOL Taz, I think he means Pinecrest, Florida in southern Dade county.

Drak, you may be on to something in your last image.

Posted By: thelmores at 5:32 PM GMT on June 14, 2007.

Drak, you may be on to something in your last image.

:)

i agree drak if it does form thats where it will be going .

Wow, 12z CMC is interesting. It has not been consistent with this system, so I can not give it too much credit, but the CMC seems to show the area to the NE of the area to the SE along that trough will get pulled across S Fla, but that a second system will develop with slightly better conditions as time goes on. I think that these are the two areas that thel and Drak were debating earlier. The 12z GFS also seems to show something similar, but I have a hard time telling when the 12z does not come out on the FSU page.

scott... NWS hasn't had a good handle on anything in the last 18 months regarding forecast... that includes SPC and NHC. That's why so many in desparation have turned to the self-proclaimed pros on this blog.

for now on evere one make sure you say what state you are from so way we no where you are from if you say like Pinecrest i was not sure what state you where talking about like Pinecrest ca or Pinecrest FL so for now on make sure you say what state that is in so we dont get mix up with the same town

lmao jp thel and Drak....


Umm, yea I was saying what you can see in Draks drawing.

The 12z GFS is not nearly as aggressive as the CMC with the second piece of surface energy.

The CMC shear forecast shows lowering shear in the Southern Gulf and the system following the low shear guided by the upper level trough. I want to emphasize system because it could just be an area of moisture or a TD.

looks like a good guess Drak.

I think the NHC must know something that we don't see.

if that hold true stormjunkie. that means so fla. will get a 1/2 punch out of these two blobs am i correct

Any chance for the blobby comet-looking thing squeezing between L Antilles and S Amer surviving into the mid Caribb where ULH is? Not an area to develop this time of year I suppose. But it is a semi-blob coming out of the ITCZ LOL.

Drak, I think that upper low is what will eventually recurve the southern piece of energy to the N and NNW for a period of time. after it crosses Fla. Still want to see a few more model runs, with the understanding that the time frame would be much slower on the southern portion it will be interesting to watch.

i think the convection area north of the island of roatan will be most interesting as it moves into the Low pressure. Then again, this convection could just be upper level diffluence form the upper level low. Hard to tell at this point too much moisture.

NWS hasnt had a good handle on what? OK THIS IS WHY METEOROLOGIST DONT POST ON FORUMS THAT OFTEN...first off the NWS dont forcast tropcial systems.. the NHC does. The NHC Has had a great record. Unless you want a system to hit your house..you might bash the NHC for it.
If people want to disregard the NHC or the NWS and take what people say in the forums...they are greatly mistaken.

Posted By: StormJunkie at 5:38 PM GMT on June 14, 2007.

Drak, I think that upper low is what will eventually recurve the southern piece of energy to the N and NNW for a period of time. after it crosses Fla. Still want to see a few more model runs, with the understanding that the time frame would be much slower on the southern portion it will be interesting to watch.

yes the CMC indicates a turning into Georgia after crossing FL. Just remember guys the SST temperature near the shoreline are way above average so i could develop more as it approaches land.

one thing you have to give the CMC credit for is its consistency with development as well as the GFS. The GFS being the favored model in term of immediate forecasting.

Drakoan - that one near Belize - think it will develop?

CMC also shows the shear being very low after/if it makes it across Fla. Develops a pretty significant circulation as it makes landfall near Savannah Ga.



And no shear anywhere near the system in this 144hr forecast. I know that is a long way out, but should something even similar to this pan out it could get interstesting for Sav to the Obx. Sure wish we had the 12z GFS on the FSU page...

Posted By: DocBen at 5:44 PM GMT on June 14, 2007.

Drakoan - that one near Belize - think it will develop?


its the favored area at this point. With the heaviest newest convection.

Posted By: scottsvb at 5:40 PM GMT on June 14, 2007.

NWS hasnt had a good handle on what? OK THIS IS WHY METEOROLOGIST DONT POST ON FORUMS THAT OFTEN...first off the NWS dont forcast tropcial systems.. the NHC does. The NHC Has had a great record. Unless you want a system to hit your house..you might bash the NHC for it.
If people want to disregard the NHC or the NWS and take what people say in the forums...they are greatly mistaken.




hey scott
if it helps
i for one listen to VERY LITTLE of what i read here as far as planning
but i do come here for the educated guesses
and you can usually tell which guesses are educated

Hey K8e, great to see ya ☺

I feel these forums are for people who can post up things like..new data recieved from recons...posting links to model runs...showing sat data or posting bulletins on watches and warnings on all types of weather and finally getting information released by the NWS and the NHC so people dont have to surf the web (if they dont know all the links of where to go). I would say its not a good place to educate someone cause there are alot of posers who hype up things or say this and that and really dont know what in the world they are talking about...and they are just wishcasting. The best for education is reading offical books or getting info from real Mets.

Low product cloud field notice the area Near the Yucantan Peninsula just north of Roatan.

This a great site for information and tropical talk thats why I like it.

Posted By: scottsvb at 5:48 PM GMT on June 14, 2007.

I feel these forums are for people who can post up things like..new data recieved from recons...posting links to model runs...showing sat data or posting bulletins on watches and warnings on all types of weather and finally getting information released by the NWS and the NHC so people dont have to surf the web (if they dont know all the links of where to go). I would say its not a good place to educate someone cause there are alot of posers who hype up things or say this and that and really dont know what in the world they are talking about...and they are just wishcasting. The best for education is reading offical books or getting info from real Mets.




the key word in my statement was educated GUESSES
i think anyone with any sense in the time of crisis will listen to LOCAL forecasters


HEY SJ!!!

me too love it and besides scott these guys call invest or systems
before its up at the navy site or the nhc site its great first hand info with these guys they work hard calling the systems and are ussally right . keep up the great work everyone .

The reason why the blog is always right about calling invest and storms is because some people call even a thunderstorm the next hurricane.........

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 5:52 PM GMT on June 14, 2007.

anybody want to comment on the ULL weakening and moving SSW?

still look strong to me. the SSW motion should change to a more northerly motion, bringing the upper level diffluence along with it.

Posted By: WPBHurricane05 at 5:56 PM GMT on June 14, 2007.

The reason why the blog is always right about calling invest and storms is because some people call even a thunderstorm the next hurricane.........

lol. true...

no 94L yet

WPB - you mean we correctly predicted 147 of the last 2 hurricanes?

The Caribbean Sea...
interesting feature of the day is a large area of cloudiness and
showers over the NW Caribbean associated with a broad area of
low pressure and sfc trough extending from extreme W Cuba to the
Gulf of Honduras. A diffluent pattern aloft associated with a
ridge/anticyclone centered near 15n85w is enhancing this
convective activity that is spreading over the Cayman Islands
and E-central Cuba. A near 60 nm wide band of moderate to
isolated strong convection is also east of the sfc low/trough
and extends from the Atlc coast of Nicaragua all the way N to
20n83w. A 1009 mb sfc low is analyzed on the 1200 UTC surface
map near 19n86w. This low is forecast to slowly drift northward.

from the 2:05 discussion

Maybe wpb, but a consensus of the folks who do have a fair knowledge level on here usually end up at least heading in the right direction.

The bottom line is one thing that makes these systems so interesting to watch is that they are fairly unpredictable.

Hi Littlefish

Sorry for not replying to you but I was away from my computer

I mean there is always one person saying one "blob" will develop.