Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 6:39 PM CDT on June 14, 2007.
1005.9mb IKE


Hmm...that 8:05 pm tropical discussion stated 1009mb. I guess that's wrong.

Thunderstorms kills here yesterday. On way to Funeral....Link

so oh wants to e mail the nhc ????

It's a typo. The NHC just left off the 5. .

hello am new on here.i like this informative and interesting topic about the weather,notice the buoy at 42056 are falling rapidlyLink

Im new but I read this today. Thought I might share...

HURRICANE SEASON
Bureaucrats mar storm preparations
BY TED BESESPARIS
tedbe@pianet.org
On the eve of what could be a disastrous hurricane season, a bureaucratic war has broken out which could undermine our nation's disaster preparedness. Both the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service are part of a larger government agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But both have their own directors, their own staffs and their own budgets.

People have come to depend on the hurricane center for timely storm-related information and on the weather service for weather information that's not tropical. Both agencies have earned the public's trust through years of competence and professionalism. They are two areas of federal disaster preparedness that work well.

In an example of bureaucrats attempting to break something that is not broken, NOAA is now trying to ''re-brand'' storm and weather information the public receives as coming from NOAA. NOAA is attempting to raise its own prominence, which implies that the hurricane center is of lesser importance. This is a mistake.

Demoting the hurricane center in this manner undermines its well-established credibility with the public. It risks creating confusion in the run-up to disasters. Confusion is something that responsible emergency preparedness officials should always want to avoid.

There is more at work here than a few inflated egos at NOAA.

Research vs. image

The new director of the National Hurricane Center, Bill Proenza, created a firestorm of controversy recently when he lashed out at his superiors at NOAA, saying the agency is more concerned with image-building than bolstering storm forecasting. Proenza is upset because he says NOAA plans to spend as much as $4 million on a 200-year anniversary celebration. Meanwhile, he says the agency has shortchanged hurricane research by about $700,000.

Proenza also indicated that it is disingenuous for NOAA to be throwing a 200th anniversary celebration for itself because the agency was created in 1970. A NOAA spokesman said one of the agency's predecessors, the U.S. Coast and Geodetic Survey, dates from 1807. The NOAA spokesman also said that $1.5 million, not $4 million, is the amount being spent for NOAA's anniversary.

After this dispute started playing out, NOAA announced that it has slashed the flight time of ''hurricane hunter'' flights to 354 hours in 2007, down from 707 hours in 2005. It is not known if NOAA's move to cut the flight time by the forecasting aircraft is related to the fact that Proenza went public with his criticisms of NOAA. One would hope not.

Proenza said there is a broader NOAA agenda at work to publicize its name and diminish the profile of the weather service and the hurricane center. He said emergency managers have complained that this would create a credibility problem, hampering the effectiveness of severe weather warnings.

Just look at what happened to the Federal Emergency Management Agency after it got gobbled up by the Department of Homeland Security to see why NOAA's actions are ill-conceived. FEMA was transformed from an excellent agency serving a critical public need into an ineffective organization after Katrina, failing to respond appropriately to that disaster.

Not related to this, but still ominous to people living in the path of hurricanes, was the news that FEMA will miss the congressionally mandated June 1 deadline for updates to its national disaster plan. After informing Congress that the update would not be ready, FEMA Director R. David Paulison told a conference of emergency managers in Florida, ``don't believe the stories that you've heard that FEMA and the federal government are not ready.''

Hurricane readiness

This is no way to prepare for a hurricane season. Small wonder that a recent USA Today/Gallup poll found that only three in 10 Americans believe the federal government is prepared for a disaster.

Congress needs to put an end to NOAA's counterproductive efforts. There is absolutely no excuse for spending any taxpayer dollars -- be it $4 million or $1.5 million -- to ''celebrate'' NOAA's 200th anniversary, or its 37th anniversary, whichever it is. In addition, NOAA should be bolstering the National Hurricane Center, not trying to take credit for its excellent work.

Two years ago, the country witnessed the people of New Orleans suffer the massive destruction that a killer hurricane can cause. To prepare for the next hurricanes, we don't need an expensive ''celebration'' paid for with millions of taxpayer dollars. We need research to improve the accuracy of hurricane forecasts.

A clear message must be sent to NOAA: Knock it off!

Ted Besesparis is vice president of communications of the National Association of Professional Insurance Agents.

Thats they key term at the moment..... "broad area of low pressue".......

climatologically, everybody, including the NHC knows this is a prime location this time of year.

after watching Barry, I predict a similar event.

my question, will the HH's task tomorrow??

welcome to the addiction all new people!!!!

"my question, will the HH's task tomorrow??"....

I didn't think they would with Barry...I was wrong...

I don't know...I'll say yes.

the HH's have a plan for tomarrow already. I dont think they will execute it.

It's just surprising that's there's no invest on the Navy site/94L.

NOAA plans to spend as much as $4 million on a 200-year anniversary celebration. Meanwhile, he says the agency has shortchanged hurricane research by about $700,000.

If I was in charge of NOAA..... I would fire somebody's @$$!

and our QuickStat bird is about to die with no replacement till 2016.

Thats just hype. The satellite is just having a few problems.

wpb...you wrecked your car again?!!

I'm feeling lazy, so I'm not going to read the back to see whats going on.

Anyone care to inform me on the carrib situation?

hey TAZ...... when you get done emailing the NHC.....how bout dropping a line to Fidel and tell him to get his cuban radar updated to real time!

I know Bama, should stop paying attention to the GPS since its broken.......

hellsniper....still just waitin' and seein' what happens.

the nhc is in denial and wont give us a floater
the low possibly is forming a new llc further out at see.
the UUL is slowly dissipating making the whole thing more interesting.
The models are still crazy but hint at a weak system;

Thanks Bama. :)

Ok any new news on the two areas supposedly brewing up and passing over Florida in the next 6 days

Floater 3 is pretty close to the center maybe on purpose

floater 3 was put there last week when a little low was there. About the same time 93L was makin' noise.

Bama have you checked out the cmc rainfall total over the next 6 days for Central Floirda. 40 Cm thats 16 in

Pressures continue to fall off the Yucatan
Link

Wouldn't the pressure falling over the Yucatan sugguest a low deepening? It was dropping 0.09- 0.06?

Dang, I know central Florida needs a little rain, but geez, 16 inches! LOL

Clear you got a link for that stat??

94L!!!!

To be honest i dont know where to look at for rainfall estimates...LOL! I haven't gotten too model savvy yet!

doh, forget in was in the models! LOL

CMC is nearly always way bullish on rainfall. It's not a reliable tool for that.

Quikscat is now half way across the Atl. and pressure is near 1006 at the Yucatan buoy and 1008.5 at the buoy S of the Caymans. The data from S of us is one hour earlier than the other so the current pressure S of the Caymans may be lower. I am curious to see just how much of a surface low there is. Low pressure can still be quite broad and ill defined but we will see shortly

what are they spending that $4 million on? I hope they're buying me beer, at least. I'd rather have accurate storm forecasts than free beer, but hey, i'd rather have free beer than nothing, especially if i'm going to be victimized by an unpredicted storm.

Infrared of 94L

Link


Rainfall can be found by selecting rainfall under field.

Guess i knew where to look just hadn't :/

94L! Somethings a Brewin~

Sky we need rain but 16 in pinellas county might as well be 16 ft. LOL

ya ya ya ya ya ya ya we have 94L at last

Winds are only 20 knots, located at 18.8 N/86.4 W

94L.....woohoo. Going to put the coffee on could be a long night!!

Thinking that ULL may finally make some noise.

Q

navy site says mb N/A
Does that mean they have no precise reading as yet or that they have a pressure for the area itself but the low is too diffuse ?

so what...do i run to home depot yet?!

Invest 94L up...Lets see what the models do with it.

23...your info is 3 minutes old LOL!! We are already making evacuation plans!!

LOL Bama!