Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

do you think this thing is going to make it

I don't

Could someone tell me if I'm seeing 2 different low level spins, one east of the Belize/Mexico border and the other in the Yucatan channel, looking at the infared loop or is that one the ULL in the Yucatan channel and the other one a weak low level spin East of the Belize/Mexican border.

highndry1,

Yes, QuikSCAT was not designed to last this long. Several of its gyroscopes have already failed, and one more failure takes it out of commission.

It could, concieveably, last another 3-5 years, but it could also go out at any second.

It will take at least 7 years to build another one, and hurricane forecasts will be about 10% worse without it. Oh, and funding has NOT been granted for a replacement.

So -


Why aren't people up in arms about this? I mean really, we lose 10% of our ability to track huricanes after Katrina and nobody cares?!


what's the deal?!

Posted By: stormpetrol at 4:08 AM GMT on June 15, 2007.
Could someone tell me if I'm seeing 2 different low level spins, one east of the Belize/Mexico border and the other in the Yucatan channel, looking at the infared loop or is that one the ULL in the Yucatan channel and the other one a weak low level spin East of the Belize/Mexican border.

This link shows 2 lows if you click NCEP Fronts.
Link

So -


Why aren't people up in arms about this? I mean really, we lose 10% of our ability to track huricanes after Katrina and nobody cares?!


what's the deal?!

When tropical cyclogenesis is possible, people on here get hysterical. They are in a trance. LOL! I am too though, so no offense to anyone.

I am DEFINITELY concerned with the failure of QuikSCAT. I don't want the forecasts to get worse, and a 10% decrease in the quality of hurricane forecasts is quite a lot.

not much organization. we'll see what tomorrow holds.

Convection has died down for now as it usually does this time of night, I suspect by tomorrow morning everything will be in full bloom again, it also appears to have a ENE movement to me.

stormpetrol tropical system dont die down at night...tropical systems feed off the humidty and warm water at night..
Land thunderstorms die down over night.. not tropical systems.

Government today is primarily concerned with geopolitics and expanshion of capital and debt, not mortal needs of citizens.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007/

UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADARS SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WEAKENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING AND
EXTEND IN AN ARC FROM CONCAN TO FLORESVILLE TO SPEAKS. EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE AS AIRMASS SLOWLY STABILIZING AND HAVE DROPPED
POPS TO 20S MOST AREAS, EXCEPT 10S SOUTHWEST. HAVE ALSO REMOVED
MENTION OF SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL. QUICK GLANCE AT INCOMING 00Z
MODEL RUNS SHOWS A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MID AND UPPER LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER
TEXAS AND ONGOING FORECASTS MENTIONS THIS. HAVE DROPPED OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
CURRENT AND EXPECTED OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED WINDS
AND GUSTS TO REFLECT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND IMPACT ON WINDS WITH
EXPECTATION THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, ONGOING SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK.

OF NOTE, ALL THREE TIMES THE SPURS HAVE WON THE CHAMPIONSHIP, A
HURRICANE HAS HIT THE TEXAS COAST. 1999 WITH BRET, 2003 WITH
CLAUDETTE, AND 2005 WITH RITA. WILL 2007 CONTINUE THAT TREND?

ok - i live in savannah - been offered a tick r/t to san diego from sun - friday - i don't want to take it if the weather is going to be awful here. I live in a flood zone...

"...a bunch of ordinary brainless women, thinking with their "little"

doublevision...I hope you can explain your way out of this one.
Sincerely,
No Shoes
(female)

Hmm... I would have to say that people in general are brainless. He was making a general statement by saying "brainless women". Generally refering to them as people. Which I'm sure is better than the casual Third world ideal that women are less than human.

what the heck did i walk into tonight?

lol... Umm... Thats a good question Mel. I'm not sure what I walked into either. Or what I just said. It is too late to be blogging, honestly.

see you tomorrow hellsniper.

Night. haha...

I'm bored!

Hello c2news

Why aren't people up in arms over quikscat?

Who knows about it except us?

The satellite is also useful for studying deforestation and the melting of glaciers.

And the politicians don't give a crap because people don't know anything about it, and won't vote against them for ignoring it.

I know

I reverse my previous comments:
The ULL appears to have died, and this thing looks more organized than a few hours ago!

I'm still hesitant to predict development, though.

I am waiting for a bit more convection before I become convinced

94L is alive on the Navy site.

It may develop, it may not. I'm gonna continue watching it though.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat_products.html


Check it out

Posted By: doublevision at 5:37 AM GMT on June 15, 2007.
It's just a bunch of ordinary brainless women, thinking with their "little" heads.lol I wouldn't put very much stock into what they are "broad" casting at all.lol


Doublevision, most on here are much smarter than I am and I qualify for MENSA. Obviously you are of the jock strap can't see past my nose hairs mentality. Be careful of whom you speak. And I am one of those with "little" heads. Also I have my CDL and can shoot better than most men. And I'm a grandma and probably look better than your 25 year old girlfriend so forget that angle too.

Don't irritate me when I wake up. Most on here are here for weather discussion and I doubt that the guys would like to be called broadcasters any more than the girls. This blob bears watching or it wouldn't be an invest, talk about small brained, duhhhhhhhhh.
On that note, back to bed.

Stormpetrol said: Convection has died down for now as it usually does this time of night, I suspect by tomorrow morning everything will be in full bloom again, it also appears to have a ENE movement to me.


Nada. Convection looks like total crapola as I see it now at 5:30am Friday. However, NHC has now given this a glimpse of hope for development, which probably means it's dead also. ;-)

Additionally, all model runs over night, including CMC, have dropped this system regarding any genesis. Pls don't flame me about GFDL, it was last run 3 days ago.

The one thing most models runs do show however is that the bermuda high will finally kick into it's normal summer pattern, and that should mean more typical westcoast seabreeze thunderstorms in FL during the next week.

as for doublevision....it's obvious which head you're thinking with sweetie...

I was referring to mr. doublevisions senseless comment...sorry to interrupt...just had to be said....

have a lovely day...and pray for rain in south alabama if you are'nt busy....

It seems to me that the thunderstorms by central Cuba is what is absorbing the convection that tries to fire up near 94L's center. Is this part of the upper-level low?

.....uuuuummm, when is it going to cross over into the GOM?

....and uuuuummm, good morning! Getting a soaker here this morning...I'd almost forgotten what rain looked, sounds, smells and feels like! It's nice!

Morning all,

I have to admit nothing much looks impressive this morning.

Except, perhaps, that ridge of high pressure that looks to be setting up across the Central Atlantic. Whoo-ee boy, I sure do hope that's not where we get a permenant high feature. That would spell disaster for practically the entire region, but especially the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida.