Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 13:28 GMT le 13 juin 2007 | +3 |
F5: Devastation, Survival, and the Most Violent Tornado Outbreak of the 20th Century tells a story from the world's most violent tornado outbreak on record--the April 4, 1974 Super Outbreak. The Super Outbreak featured the most tornadoes ever recorded in a single day, 148, and also had an unprecedented number of violent F4 and F5 tornadoes--six F5 tornadoes and 24 F4 tornadoes (for comparison, the past five years have had one F5 tornado and 15 F4 tornadoes.)| Permalink | A A A |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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I'm Only a Model Fan When Theres Some General
Agreement Between atleast 2 Of The More Reliable
Models.
Otherwise I Play Wait and See With The GFDL.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
243 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007
GFS IS DEVELOPING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND MOVING IN NE OUT OF THE GULF AND ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS DEFINITELY THE OUTLIER
AS IT BRINGS A LOW INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE THESE
SOLUTION MAY BE DUBIOUS...THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP
S/SW LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
i think thats more than 2....
And as we learned from a recent blog, this statement from NHC is accurate about 98% of the time. So there is very little chance of anything developing into anything tropical. A "surface low" does not necessarily mean a tropical low.
I Said CLOSE To Tampa Drakoen. That Was The Only
Reason I Took Note. The Area Is Broad On The Model
So It's Hard To Tell. Besides I Wouldnt Expect it
To Be Accurate although I find It Interesting.
Mostly Because I see Nothing Of Interest Right
Now In That Area of The Carribean To Worry about.
if you are looking at the CMC model it is not broad look at the inner most circle adn it shows "landfall" near Fort Myers. The GFDL model run was from yesterdayso that could change. The outer isolines are the outflow boundary.
I don't really want to get into the mechanics of the models on something that does exist.
Katrina was a hurricane before hitting S. Florida.
I said similar to what Katrina did...
Posted By: rwdobson at 7:28 PM GMT on June 13, 2007.
"Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours."
And as we learned from a recent blog, this statement from NHC is accurate about 98% of the time. So there is very little chance of anything developing into anything tropical. A "surface low" does not necessarily mean a tropical low.
It mostly likely would be because of the area thats it in where watere temperature are above 80 degrees.
i also see decreasing wind shear on the shear tendency map.
I figured ya'll be picking up on the last CMC run. Right now, like 2005 I'm giving it more respect than the others as far as early formation since it has been by far doing best in that area compared to the others. MLB NWS mentions the low in their 2:30 discussion as well. Though it's a bit uncertain & should be considering it's only showed this last run & 1 run on the gfdl yesterday.
the GFS is also showing something as well. but it is weaker. The CMC has a sorta compact tight system. Should be interesting to see the next model runs.
And if this thing is progged to be making "landfall" by Saturday--only 3 days from now--it had better get its act together pretty quickly if it even wants to be a TD.
"Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours."
This weekend would be just beyond the 48hrs stated here!
Link
Preparedness does save lives but...you don't wanna cry wolf.
And if this thing is progged to be making "landfall" by Saturday--only 3 days from now--it had better get its act together pretty quickly if it even wants to be a TD.
yes thats a good call. If we consider something actually forming we want it to form now so that people can be alert rather than when it form in South of Cuba/GOM. the preparedness time is less.
Link
but by this weekend, it's already supposed to be making landfall...
20kts of shear
Disorganized/disappating convection (upper level diffluence from an upper level trough)
No apparent low pressure
Favorable Sea Surface Temperatures
Link
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