NHC director Bill Proenza under fire
New National Hurricane Center director Bill Proenza is in hot water for his outspoken criticism of his bosses, according to Miami Herald stories published in the past few days. The acting head of the National Weather Service, Mary Glackin, visited his office in Miami Friday and handed him a three-page letter of reprimand. Proenza shared the contents of the letter with his staff and the media, a pretty gutsy move for a guy just appointed to the job. However, Proenza's boss, Ms. Glackin, is on the job for just a few more months--on September 2, Jack Hayes takes over as boss of the National Weather Service. Proenza can probably get away with his criticism of his bosses while there a major shake up at the top. See the View From the Surface blog this week for further speculations, and for any follow-up articles that might be published on this topic.
Figure 1. The NASA QuikSCAT satellite. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
Replacement for the aging QuikSCAT satellite?
Proenza has been particularly outspoken in his desire to see a replacement for the aging QuikSCAT satellite, which measures surface winds over remote ocean areas, and has been credited with improving 72-hour hurricane track forecasts by 16%. His comments may be having an effect. On May 24, the improved Hurricane Tracking and Forecasting Act of 2007 (Senate Bill S. 1509) was introduced before the Senate. The bill, introduced by Sen. Landrieu, D-LA, and co-sponsored by John Kerry and Florida's two senators, asks for $375 million to build a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite. Bravo to Mr. Proenza for speaking out on this important issue! Some excepts from the bill:
(5) The QuikSCAT satellite was built in just 12 months and was launched with a 3-year design life, but continues to perform per specifications, with its backup transmitter, as it enters into its 8th year--5 years past its projected lifespan.
(6) The QuikSCAT satellite provides daily coverage of 90 percent of the world's oceans, and its data has been a vital contribution to National Weather Service forecasts and warnings over water since 2000.
(7) Despite its continuing performance, the QuikSCAT satellite is well beyond its expected design life and a replacement is urgently needed because, according to the National Hurricane Center, without the QuikSCAT satellite--
(A) hurricane forecasting would be 16 percent less accurate 72 hours before hurricane landfall and 10 percent less accurate 48 hours before hurricane landfall resulting in--
(i) with a 16 percent loss of accuracy at 72 hours before landfall, the area expected to be under hurricane danger would rise from 197 miles to 228 miles on average; and
(ii) with a 10 percent loss of accuracy at 48 hours before landfall, the area expected to be under hurricane danger would rise from 136 miles to 150 miles on average; and
(B) greater inaccuracy of this type would lead to more `false alarm' evacuations along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast and decrease the possibility of impacted populations sufficiently heeding mandatory evacuations.
The bill has been referred to the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, and awaits consideration there. The Chair of that committee is Senator Inouye from hurricane-prone Hawaii, so the bill has a decent chance of making it out of committee to the Senate floor. If your senator is on the committee, please write them to let them know what you think about the bill:
Democrats:
Chairman Daniel K. Inouye (HI)
John D. Rockefeller, IV (WV)
John F. Kerry (MA)
Byron L. Dorgan (ND)
Barbara Boxer (CA)
Bill Nelson (FL)
Maria Cantwell (WA)
Frank R. Lautenberg (NJ)
Mark Pryor (AR)
Thomas Carper (DE)
Claire McCaskill (MO)
Amy Klobuchar (MN)
Republicans:
Vice Chairman Ted Stevens (AK)
John McCain (AZ)
Trent Lott (MS)
Kay Bailey Hutchison (TX)
Olympia J. Snowe (ME)
Gordon H. Smith (OR)
John Ensign (NV)
John E. Sununu (NH)
Jim DeMint (SC)
David Vitter (LA)
John Thune (SD)
There is no activity in the tropical Atlantic worth mentioning, and none of the computer models are forecasting any development over the coming week. I'll have a new blog on Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I rode out the same storm you did. Lightning was pretty spectacular. I was in the Santa Rosa Mall when a bolt hit the building. Nasty crackling sounds. Blessed to be getting some much needed rainfall. Hope everyone has a good night!
:)
Great shot patrap.....thats how it looked around here a couple of hours ago. No rotations around here though
Lol!
paula
Patrap you are right on top of things wow ... That happen to me driving my bus today at 3:15 as the cold front pushed the hot humid air along.
Thanks for sharing :c)
paula
Link
The parade of fronts continue's with another one poised to move into south florida during the next few days bringing up the rain chances to about 60-70 percent.
I will likely be on Bob's show on thursday as i have a few questions for our very popular nhc director.Adrian
"His guest will be Bill Proenza, Director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida. We will discuss this hurricane season. If you would like to ask a question during the show, please visit us in Storm Chat"
Link
I do think we will a season with 10-13 named systems but the all important issue is whether there going to impact land.I do think steering currents right now are on our side with front after front coming down but will it continue in the coming months is something that is unknown.
Keep in mind 1992 had only 7 named systems and turned to be one of the worst hurricanes seasons in U.S. history.Adrian
(Numbers predicted are not important)
As for La Nina, my own (non-scientific) prediction is that it is ending, before it even got started. ENSO appears to be in a period of much quicker than average fluxuations between positive and negative phases... and doesn't appear to have had much effect on weather patterns where I live (in southern California, where El Nino generally means wet conditions, the last El Nino was extreme drought and the last La Nina was slightly above average rainfall here).
I say watch the E-pac, with these warming temperatures there may be a more active season than expected. However, the chance of remnants/rainfall reaching California are quite small until/unless that cold pool off our coast goas away.
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