NHC director Bill Proenza under fire
New National Hurricane Center director Bill Proenza is in hot water for his outspoken criticism of his bosses, according to Miami Herald stories published in the past few days. The acting head of the National Weather Service, Mary Glackin, visited his office in Miami Friday and handed him a three-page letter of reprimand. Proenza shared the contents of the letter with his staff and the media, a pretty gutsy move for a guy just appointed to the job. However, Proenza's boss, Ms. Glackin, is on the job for just a few more months--on September 2, Jack Hayes takes over as boss of the National Weather Service. Proenza can probably get away with his criticism of his bosses while there a major shake up at the top. See the View From the Surface blog this week for further speculations, and for any follow-up articles that might be published on this topic.
Figure 1. The NASA QuikSCAT satellite. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.
Replacement for the aging QuikSCAT satellite?
Proenza has been particularly outspoken in his desire to see a replacement for the aging QuikSCAT satellite, which measures surface winds over remote ocean areas, and has been credited with improving 72-hour hurricane track forecasts by 16%. His comments may be having an effect. On May 24, the improved Hurricane Tracking and Forecasting Act of 2007 (Senate Bill S. 1509) was introduced before the Senate. The bill, introduced by Sen. Landrieu, D-LA, and co-sponsored by John Kerry and Florida's two senators, asks for $375 million to build a replacement for the QuikSCAT satellite. Bravo to Mr. Proenza for speaking out on this important issue! Some excepts from the bill:
(5) The QuikSCAT satellite was built in just 12 months and was launched with a 3-year design life, but continues to perform per specifications, with its backup transmitter, as it enters into its 8th year--5 years past its projected lifespan.
(6) The QuikSCAT satellite provides daily coverage of 90 percent of the world's oceans, and its data has been a vital contribution to National Weather Service forecasts and warnings over water since 2000.
(7) Despite its continuing performance, the QuikSCAT satellite is well beyond its expected design life and a replacement is urgently needed because, according to the National Hurricane Center, without the QuikSCAT satellite--
(A) hurricane forecasting would be 16 percent less accurate 72 hours before hurricane landfall and 10 percent less accurate 48 hours before hurricane landfall resulting in--
(i) with a 16 percent loss of accuracy at 72 hours before landfall, the area expected to be under hurricane danger would rise from 197 miles to 228 miles on average; and
(ii) with a 10 percent loss of accuracy at 48 hours before landfall, the area expected to be under hurricane danger would rise from 136 miles to 150 miles on average; and
(B) greater inaccuracy of this type would lead to more `false alarm' evacuations along the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Coast and decrease the possibility of impacted populations sufficiently heeding mandatory evacuations.
The bill has been referred to the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, and awaits consideration there. The Chair of that committee is Senator Inouye from hurricane-prone Hawaii, so the bill has a decent chance of making it out of committee to the Senate floor. If your senator is on the committee, please write them to let them know what you think about the bill:
Democrats:
Chairman Daniel K. Inouye (HI)
John D. Rockefeller, IV (WV)
John F. Kerry (MA)
Byron L. Dorgan (ND)
Barbara Boxer (CA)
Bill Nelson (FL)
Maria Cantwell (WA)
Frank R. Lautenberg (NJ)
Mark Pryor (AR)
Thomas Carper (DE)
Claire McCaskill (MO)
Amy Klobuchar (MN)
Republicans:
Vice Chairman Ted Stevens (AK)
John McCain (AZ)
Trent Lott (MS)
Kay Bailey Hutchison (TX)
Olympia J. Snowe (ME)
Gordon H. Smith (OR)
John Ensign (NV)
John E. Sununu (NH)
Jim DeMint (SC)
David Vitter (LA)
John Thune (SD)
There is no activity in the tropical Atlantic worth mentioning, and none of the computer models are forecasting any development over the coming week. I'll have a new blog on Wednesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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But one thing is for sure, the fact that they can spend $4 million on a celebration, to me should demand outcry from the American People! Our tax dollars should be better spent! Imagine the positive impact it would have if we could take this $4 million and put a new Scat in space, and put the majority into research and development. If through futility, we reduce annual Hurricane damage a few percent due to improved forecasting, a few percent of Katrina for example is tremendous!
I not only plan to contact my representatives, but I also plan to write a letter to Bill Proenza to let him know that we are lucky to have somebody who is outspoken!
As an aside, this may be the first Bill that John Kerry and I have ever agreed on! LOL
If I read the chart correctly, they're expecting an all time record flood? Amazing!
We've been getting rained on for weeks it seems like.
CPC IS NOW FORCASTING NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR NEXT 3 MONTHS.
18th of june PDF update.
Cool! Lets dump the satellite replacement idea and build a space elevator instead!
last time we had neutral conditions wish was in 2005 the gulf got hit hard with the C D K and R storm the olny 2 storm that hit FL in 2005 was the W storm
Taz the overall situation is many florida landfalls have indeed occured in florida during neutral conditions across the basin.Nobody knows were the storms are going to track this year but iam just looking at stats from the past.Adrian
Do you have stats of landfall during Neutral conditions in Florida? Website maybe?
Hey guys wanted to stop by the blog cause i think this is pretty significant news coming out...
CPC IS NOW FORCASTING NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR NEXT 3 MONTHS.
...NOT good news!
I think this year will be the most dangerous hurricane season( not by the number of strong storms but because of the quietness of 2006). People will think the threat of the big hurricanes will be over because nothing happened last year and then POW, one is going tho come out of the blueand it is gonna catch people off guard. It only takes one big storm to fulfill that prediction.
Ok, I'm marking that down. If what you say doesn't come true you owe me 50 bucks. Ok? Good. I already pasted it on my caldendar. Good Luck!
Hurricane23,
Do you have stats of landfall during Neutral conditions in Florida? Website maybe?
No problem...
Past florida hurricane tracks during neutral conditions
Website here
Thanks
Erin
Felix
Luis
Marilyn
The results are important. All regions of the US coast have an El Niño signal (less hurricanes). All regions have a La Niña signal (more hurricanes). On the Gulf Coast and Florida, La Niña and Neutral have the same signal. Along the East Coast of the U.S., the Neutral probability curve collapses on the El Niño curve. This means that during 75 percent of years, the East Coast has a reduced probability of hurricane landfall.
Hurricane landfall frequencies for Florida and the U.S. East Coast (Georgia to Maine) for El Niño, neutral, and La Niña years are presented. An increase compared to neutral years in Florida landfalling hurricanes for La Niña years is not observed; however, there are more hurricanes making landfall in Florida than along the East Coast during neutral years. Results for the Gulf Coast (Alabama through Texas) are nearly identical to those for Florida. La Niña appears to only increase hurricane landfall activity relative to neutral years from Georgia northward in the United States.
Most previous ENSO impact studies have shown differences in hurricane activity between El Niño , neutral, and La Niña phases. In this study, differences are only observed in one out of the three phases. Along the East Coast, the effects of the El Niño and neutral phases are essentially the same, such that the scenario becomes El Niño/neutral vs. La Niña. Along the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico and Florida, there is a similar scenario. In this case, the effects of the La Niña and neutral phases are nearly identical, creating a La Niña/neutral vs. El Niño scenario.
Examination of the origin points and tracks of landfalling hurricanes for both regions are examined and results show that storms making landfall along the East Coast are more likely to form in the central Atlantic while those that make landfall in Florida usually form further west, in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Also, there are fewer storms forming in the neutral phase in the usual origin regions for East Coast landfalling hurricanes than there are in the cold phase. Possible explanations for the regional variation in the impact of ENSO on hurricane landfalls, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and steering patterns, are suggested.
her are my 2007 hurrricane names that may make land fall this year her they are
Erin
Felix
Luis
Marilyn
Taz, you mean:
Erin
Felix, the hurricane, the wonderful, wonderful hurricane.
Luis
Marilyn
Check out alex, ok (Washita River), went from about 12 feet to over 40 feet VERY quickly
Link
Sherman Texas got hit hard also:
Felix, the hurricane, the wonderful, wonderful hurricane. ??
Link
nope
Did anyone understand the meaning behind
Felix, the hurricane, the wonderful, wonderful hurricane. ??
Felix the cat???
Did anyone understand the meaning behind
Felix, the hurricane, the wonderful, wonderful hurricane. ??
Here..Link
...take a listen
Oh C**p!!!
not much conversation today...but i am glad to see no bickering everyone is playing nice!!
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