Fourth warmest May on record
The tropical Atlantic remains quiet. None of the computer models are showing any tropical development over the next week. The best chance of a new threat area to watch may not occur until July 1, when a strong cold front pushes off the U.S. East Coast.
The Middle East will see their second tropical cyclone of the month on Tuesday. Tropical Cyclone 3B crossed India, killing at least 140, and re-formed in the Arabian Sea, and is poised to hit Iran or Pakistan tomorrow. The View From the Surface blog is following this storm. We may looking at hundreds of years since the last time the Middle East was hit by two tropical cyclones in the same month. Tropical Cyclone Gonu pounded Oman and Iran earlier this month.
Fourth Warmest May on record
May 2007 was the fourth warmest May for the globe on record, and the period January - May of 2007 was tied with 1998 for the warmest such period ever, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. The global average temperature for May was +0.53�C (+0.95�F) above the 20th century mean. Over land, May global temperatures were the warmest ever measured, the second straight month that has happened. Ocean temperatures were a bit cooler (ninth warmest on record), thanks to the cooling associated with the disappearance of the winter El Ni�o event. The global temperature record goes back 128 years.
May temperatures were particularly warm across Russia. Moscow recorded its highest May temperature since record keeping began 128 years ago--32.9�C (91.2�F). The heat forced Russia's energy administrator to restrict the use of non-residential energy for the first time in summer. In India, a heat wave during mid-May produced temperatures as high as 45-50�C (113-122�F) resulting in at least 128 fatalities. Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change blog has more on the India heat wave. Although record heat was more prevalent across the globe, Argentina experienced its coldest May in twenty years, and at least 23 fatalities were reported as a result of cold weather during the last week of May.
11th warmest May on record in the U.S.
In the U.S., May 2007 ranked as the 11th warmest since record keeping began in 1895. The period January through May was the 20th warmest such period on record. Spring (March - May) was 5th warmest on record in the continental U.S. The past six months (Dec-May) were the driest on record for the Southeast U.S. Portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee are experiencing exceptional drought. However, the drought has eased some since late May over the Florida Peninsula.
Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for May 2007. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
Sea ice extent
Sea ice extent in the Arctic for May was the third lowest on record, a modest recovery from the lowest ever sea ice coverage observed in April. Arctic sea ice coverage in May has declined by about 8% since measurements began in 1979 (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for May, for the years 1979-2007. May 2007 had the third lowest Arctic sea ice extent since satellite measurements began in 1979. May sea ice coverage has declined about 8% since 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
I'll have a new blog on Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Hail isn't usually a big deal in Florida, Ive personally seen with my own eyes more tornados then hail here believe it or not LOL.
Ive only seen hail twice, but Ive seen 3 tornados in this area.
1933 -- A hailstorm swept a path of destruction 12 miles wide and 40 miles long across eastern Saskatchewan.
1938 -- 4.22" of rain drenched Warsaw, Indiana.
1994 -- Death Valley had a morning low of 102°.
1995 -- At 1:35pm lightning struck the horse team of an Amish farmer near Shipshewana, Indiana. The spooked horses ran into a tree, killing the farmer. Also, a 17-year-old boy in Fort Wayne was killed when lightning struck a nearby object and jumped to him.
1998 -- Flooding at New Carlisle (Saint Joseph County Indiana), 60mph thunderstorm winds at Decatur, dime sized hail at Angola and Poe (Allen County Indiana). One inch diameter hail at Coldwater, nickel sized hail at Quincy (Branch County) and Camden (Hillsdale County).
2002 -- Phenomenal flash flooding struck Fort Wayne as thunderstorms developed and re-developed directly over the city for several hours this evening. Times Corner reported 8" of rain in three hours. Spy Run Creek rose 9 feet in 8 hours to an all-time record level of 12.3 feet. Three inches of rain fell in 90 minutes.
I was just looking at the SLOSH models for Tampa. A category 1 storm surge would put McGill AFB out of commission; a cat 3 would flood the downtown and the airport as well as most of that peninsula that the AFB is on . . .
That doesn't look like a good scenario.
Today we actually got way more rain than was expected across FL. This was put out tonight by the MLB NWS
.UPDATE...MUST HAVE BEEN A PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARY TO SPARK SUCH
STRONG CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTN NORTH AND WEST OF ORLANDO...WELL
AHEAD OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. NO DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL
REPORTED BUT 2 MORE HOMES STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AND ISSUED STORM
REPORTS FOR THEM.
$$
KELLY
storm reports
One year ago heavy rainfall over saturated ground produced severe flooding.
I was at the Deleware River @ Barryville as it made it's historical high crest @ 28.97ft - 2 1/2 ft higher than it's previous record high crest
This flooding came on the heels of another significant flood which was more of a flash flooding event at first, but turned into main stem river flooding. One week previous to this flood over 1 foot of heavy wet snow fell on an already ripe 18" snowpack. Then two significant rainstorms proceeded to pound the area, the first bringing 2-3 inches. The next, just 24 hours later bringing 3-4 inches.
Flood of April 2005
A major catastrophe was almost the result of this flood as a large sink hole developed in the earthen dam which holds back a 9 mile long 50 ft deep reservior, which is connected downstream by 2 more reserviors. The Mongaup River runs from the spillway of the Rio reservior into the Deleware River. About 5 miles further downstream is Port Jervis, NY and Matamoras, PA. With a combined population of around 14,000.
These towns, along with a few more downstream would have been heavily damaged.
There seems to be a spin to the se of Florida and the Bahamas. The circ is probably an ULL. It is quite possible that the ull could come down to the surface. wind shear is very low 5=10 knots. This area bears watching, if convection were to persist.
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C2, ya oughtta go step outside for a sec and look to the east. We really have a lovely cloud/skyline, looking just ENE.
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Yesterday we (in Nassau) had great weather. Today it looks like the cloudiness might be more intermittent due to that ULL. Hopefully it won't be TOO rainy . . .
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