Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme
There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.
Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.
Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.
Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Just out of curiosity...are there any archives of this board back to when Charley hit? It would be interesting to read the discussion as it happened.
Is there a blog archive that I can find for August 13, 2004, the day Charley hit?
This is the first wave, actually, that I expect development from. I am not wishcasting, whatsoever.
Shear is lowering by the hour, nice outflow, warm SST's, and a lot of convection associated with this wave near the low.
The only problem is the track--. South America is right in front of the wave; and the wave seems to be moving in WNW direction. I expect it to skim the coast of South America and develop in the caribbean where conditions are favorable.
As said, I am not wishcasting, just stating my opinion.
LARGE AMPLITUDE E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N32W 6N34W. A
1012 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT.
THE LOW ITSELF CONSISTS OF ELONGATED CYCLONIC TURNING IN BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE
INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ GENERALLY FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 31W-38W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BROAD INVERTED V SHAPE. MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL E/SE FLOW S OF AN UPPER HIGH IS DISPLACING MOST OF
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WELL TO THE W OF THE AXIS. THIS
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AFFECTING THE NRN WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 58W-62W. SOME
CYCLONIC TURNING WAS NOTED IN THE MID LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
OVER THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N64W. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 N OF THE ITCZ W OF
54W.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86/87W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR AND THE WESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS WAVE ALSO EXTENDS INTO THE FAR NE PACIFIC AS
DESCRIBED IN THE PACIFIC DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATWDEP.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 14N25W 11N30W 9N35W 8N50W
12N58W...13N60W 10N65W. EXCEPT AS NOTED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90-120
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 49W-52W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 38W-45W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS EMERGING OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA FROM 10N-13N
IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY LARGE TROPICAL WAVE STILL OVER THE
AFRICAN CONTINENT.
Thanks!
i still believe karinas winds were much stronger than the following obs. charley 04 go to the archive of camille wind of 190 and 24ft surge? betsy also was a terrible storm so was audrey
For the Storm info..Tropical Page ..right side
Charley is a bit like Andrew. Very, very small eye and wind field.
If Charley and Andrew was the same size as Katrina, Ivan, or Wilma--the damage and destruction would be WAY more catastrophic than it was.
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