Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme
There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.
Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.
Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.
Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.
Jeff Masters
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483
WFUS53 KDVN 190035
TORDVN
IAC105-190115-
/O.NEW.KDVN.TO.W.0025.070719T0035Z-070719T0115Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
735 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2007
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
JONES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.
* AT 732 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR OLIN...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ANAMOSA...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ONSLOW AROUND 740 PM CDT...
WYOMING AROUND 745 PM CDT...
OXFORD JUNCTION AROUND 750 PM CDT...
THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE IN A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM
OR HALLWAY ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS ARE LIKELY IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
THURSDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN IOWA.
LAT...LON 4227 9136 4196 9136 4195 9091 4216 9091
i wonder what would have happed if 96l had this much convection.
jum
Link
This is a dangerous storm system; if you have friends or family in the path of the storm you should check in with them.
a. Storm surge would be even greater, as waters are shallower from sediment produced by Katrina.
b. Surge would also go further inland, as the resistant areas of land/buildings were blown away, leaving holes for surges to effect life and property further inland.
c. Number of people from other areas there working, living that have little or no hurricane experience
d. Number of people still, now living in FEMA trailers post Katrina.
e. Cat 1, 2 "won't evacuate" apathy.
info was from some report I read a month or so ago-to validate it, I'd have to go back and look for it; but, that's the theory. So, no, we DEFINITELY, don't want ANY storm.
Despite rumors that the staff was coerced by NOAA management into signing the complaint — the letter from Lampson and other congressmen suggests the staff might have been "pressured" — Franklin said nothing of the kind happened.
In fact, forecasters were increasingly eager for a change in leadership, Franklin said, because Proenza had little experience in forecasting hurricanes and the peak of hurricane season, from August to September, was coming soon. In the past, Franklin said, forecasters would often use the director as a final check on a forecast before sending it out.
There was never any thought of doing the same with Proenza, as he wasn't a tropical cyclone expert, Franklin said.
Looks like "The Peter Principle" was in effect here and Proenza was promoted to his level of incompetence.
tornadoes to the east and north of them, they were headed to the basement. NE is about half hour south west of of Iowa City
according to her and kcrg tv there have been reports of tornadoes on the ground:(
Link
Link
Florida should hope the GFS is wrong!
The seasons fixin to bust loose.
That cell A7 has big big time rotation
Tell me about it.
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