Congressional NHC hearing tomorrow; Hawaii eyes Cosme
There are no areas of interest to talk about in the tropical Atlantic today, and none of the reliable computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation during the coming week. We will need to watch the waters off the Carolina coast on Saturday, when a cold front is expected to push off the coast. The tail end of this front could serve as the focus for development of a tropical disturbance.
Hawaii eyes Cosme
Residents of the Hawaiian Islands need to keep an eye on Tropical Storm Cosme, which is headed towards the islands and may impact their weather by Saturday. Cosme is a not-too-impressive 40 mph tropical storm now, thanks to 15 knots of wind shear and ocean temperatures about 25 degrees C. However, satellite imagery of the storm shows that it is maintaining a solid amount of heavy thunderstorm activity despite the wind shear and cool SSTs. I expect Cosme will be a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Saturday when it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands, since SSTs are expected to increase and wind shear should decrease over the storm on Friday.
Figure 1. Sea Surface temperatures beneath Cosme were about 25 C (78 F), just below the 26 C threshold favorable for tropical cyclones. Cosme will be traversing a region of 24-25 C SSTs through Friday, then SSTs will warm to 25-26 as it reaches the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday.
Congressional hearing on the National Hurricane Center
On Thursday, July 19, from 10am until 12pm EDT, the House Committee on Science and Technology is holding a hearing called, "Tracking the Storm at the National Hurricane Center". You can check out some of the press releases and listen to a webcast of the hearing at the Committee web site. The Miami Herald, Orlando Sentinel, and Houston Chronicle have interesting stories on the upcoming hearing. The list of people testifying include Bill Proenza; QuikSCAT expert Dr. Robert Atlas; an emergency management official from the Gulf Coast states; and the head of NOAA, Admiral Lautenbacher. There may be others testifying, including Dr. Jim Turner, deputy director of the federal agency NTIS (National Technical Information Service), who led the inspection team that showed up at NHC without notice on July 2. Dr. Turner's report was scheduled to be completed this Friday, July 20, but is now scheduled to be released to the Congressional panel tomorrow. Notably absent from the list of people called to testify thus far: anyone from the National Hurricane Center, and a QuikSCAT science expert besides Dr. Atlas, who has thus far not addressed in his public comments--that I have seen--the very high uncertainties surrounding the impact of QuikSCAT data on track forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. I'll be sure to present a full analysis of the science presented--and the science left unsaid.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Just a few weeks now before things ramp up...
Yup...and that frame is at 300 hours...July 31st.
NOTE: The date of the photography can be derived from the first 3 characters of the image name. Image names beginning with 243 were acquired Aug 30, 2005, those beginning with 244 were acquired Aug 31, and so on.
Link
Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:35 PM CDT on July 18, 2007.
Just a few weeks now before things ramp up...
Yup...and that frame is at 300 hours...July 31st.
What iam looking at is the more aggressive runs by the GFS meaning stronger areas of low pressure making it all the way across which to me could be a sign of a ramp up in the next 2-3 weeks.
That's what I was getting at...the ramp up is rapidly approaching.
SWFL I agree with you, nobody remembers Punta Gorda which was all but destroyed.
I remember because I went up there to help cleanup when I was living in Cape Coral.
What area of Fort Myers did your folks live?
Then you know the feeling you had when you saw "those pretzels" and a lot more. It was days before they could get enough water,ice and food to many people.Electric took weeks. I worked up in Port Charlotte for 3 long,hot days with my job from FM because our work building in PC was destroyed. Thank you for understanding.
Why didn't Charley have a big storm surge?
combination of its forward speed increased and it's eye had shrunk considerably giving it a smaller core of strong wind.
Here a pic i took with some software as the eye was coming ashore.
Really enjoyed your posts today!
Thanks for the info. I didn't realize that would affect the surge of a storm.
I was expecting 18 ft storm surge and my house was only 10 ft above sea level, so you can imagine my worry at the time. Thankfully, just minor street flooding but a lot of wind damage.
Thanks for the info. I didn't realize that would affect the surge of a storm.
Charley, several things go into play for surge.
To name a few: size of storm, overall windfield, strength of storm, wind speeds, storm speed, storm direction, storm landfall angle, tides, sea levels, ocean floor - shallow/deep waters...just these off the top of my head...and I'm sure there's more.
Later.
It is probably me, but I see no image on your post. Do I need some kind of software upgrade?
Former Floridian. I am sure all the hot hard work you put into helping to clean up was much appreciated. Where did you move to?
Ohio. Couldn't afford to keep paying the rising homeowners insurance costs in Florida. My mortgage went up nearly $800/mo. over a two year period as a result. Sold my house and got out for before the housing bust.
I think we know several that can relate Charley.
as for hurricanes, wilma was actually alot worse in my area. i was closer to charlies eye, but charlie was a small storm. wilma has a huge eye and much broader windfield. wilma was actually snapping palm trees in my area. when u see the palm trees snapping, you know its bad out there.
Tom Terry mentioned me on WDRQ Eye on the Tropics
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