Sea ice in the Arctic continues its record decline, thanks to unusually cloud-free conditions and above-average temperatures. For August 21, the National Snow and Ice Data Center estimated that fully one third of the Arctic ice cap was missing, compared to the average levels observed on that date from 1979-2000. Sea ice extent was 4.92 million square kilometers on August 21, and the 1979-2000 average for the date was about 7.3 million square kilometers. Arctic sea ice has fallen below the record low absolute minimum of 4.92 million square kilometers set in 2005 by about 8%, with another 3-5 weeks of the melting season still remaining. Reliable records of sea ice coverage go back to 1979.
Figure 1. Extent of the polar sea ice on August 21, compared to the average for the date from the 1979-2000 period (pink line). Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
With one third of the Arctic ice cap already gone, and another month of melting to go, we need to consider what effect this will have on weather, climate, and sea level rise. Well, we don't need to worry about sea level rise, since the polar sea ice is already in the ocean, and won't appreciably change sea level when it melts. However, the remarkable melting of the ice cap will likely lead to unusual weather patterns this fall and winter. The lack of sea ice will put much more heat and moisture into the polar atmosphere, affecting the path of the jet stream and the resultant storm tracks. Expect a much-delayed arrival of winter to the Northern Hemisphere again this year, which may lead to further accelerated melting of the ice cap in future years.
Last week, I remarked that the most recent images from the North Pole webcam show plenty of melt water and rainy conditions near the Pole. It turns out that was misleading, since the webcam is on a ship that was headed towards the pole, but had not reached it. There have been rainy conditions at the Pole this summer, and there is some open water there, but this is not uncommon in summer. Shifting ice frequently opens up leads (cracks) with open sea water at the Pole. It was one of these open leads that British swimmer Lewis Gordon Pugh swam in for 18 minutes this July to draw attention to global climate change.
Figure 2. Total rainfall from August 10-22 as estimated by NASA's TRMM satellite.
Midwest flooding
To get an idea of the magnitude of the flooding that has hit the Midwestern U.S. during the past ten days, take a look at the total amount of rain from August 10-22 (Figure 2). We can blame Tropical Storm Erin for the rain in Texas and Oklahoma (up to 11 inches), and for the nine flooding deaths that occurred in those states. However, the unbelievable rain amounts in excess of 20 inches in Minnesota and Wisconsin were primarily due to a frontal system--with the help of some copious moisture pumped northwards by the counter-clockwise circulation around Erin while it spun over Oklahoma.
Tropical update
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss. Two of our four reliable forecast models, the NOGAPS and ECMWF, are predicting that a tropical depression could form off the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday. The models forecast that this system would move inland over Nicaragua and Honduras by Monday.
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.
Jeff Masters
Bulldozer trying to clear sand and debris from Norman Manley Highway(Airport Road)
The flood is over, now the cleanup
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lat, those are good examples of how you must be careful in fixing problems. Ethanol can help, but it is not the end all... Better fuel efficiency and possibily hydrogen and solar power will help. Probably like many trouble-shooting problems I deal with, it takes a combination of many things in moderation. Going gung whole on one thing usually increases problems.
1: is sending satellites/space shuttles/rocket's into space affecting our planet?
2: when we set off those h-bombs and a-bombs, don't you think they have a effect on the environment?
3: does the changes in our solar system like the sun for instance is getting bigger have anything to do with global warming?
They are lot's of other questions that remain to be answered that deal with our planet and global warming. That is my take on this subject.
Link
Rough Night in O-Town from tropical Wave!
Good night.
LOL. ROFLMAO.... Now that there's a funny joke...
-- Hey look at Miami Radar, now look due west. That is not rain it is flipping smoke from the everglades burning. It smells n-a-s-t-y outside. Over 20,000 acres are a burning. A little rain would be nice.
How is the Grand Cayman post Dean? Are you up and running normally again? So glad you were spared the direct CAT5 hit that was forecast...
Do something about it.
I have no patience for posturing.
WE have posted on
global warming.
micro biology.
the death or lack thereof of uncle Fidel.
The finer points of water freezing..
kite/wind surfing..
hell,we even touched on the tropics.
makes ya kinda wish we had a cat 2 fish spinner out there don't it?
Hey can excessive smoke from a fire stop a Tropical Storm from forming?? My guess is it could stop a borderline from forming since it is dry.. Miami-Dade may be throwing up a protective curtain to discourage a 'cane from coming.
I remember when I was little and would hear his name in the tv, I liked to say his name.
Fidel Castro, I would make it roll on my tounge. My sister would tell me to shutup. lol
it appears that the 18z gfs is developing two african waves, within the next 6 days or so
Next Week tuesday according to the cyclone phase diagram. Also look at the ECMWF 12z run.
The Earth will balance itself out in time, it always has and always will. CO2 levels have been much higher in the past, and yet here we are today. I may be over simplifying it, but I really believe we do not have as much to worry about as the media/government wants us to.
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