Gulf of Mexico low nears tropical depression status
A large low pressure system (93L) over the Gulf of Mexico has gradually been acquiring tropical characteristics, but is in no hurry to intensify. Top surface winds measured at buoys in the Gulf of Mexico this morning have been 30 knots (35 mph), so this storm could technically qualify as a tropical depression if the current hurricane hunter mission finds a well-defined center of circulation. There are two Hurricane Hunters aircraft in the storm right now, and they have found several swaths of surface winds of 35 mph. Long range radar loops from the Florida Panhandle clearly show the storm's circulation, but the low level spiral bands are not well organized and are only slowly getting more organized. Satellite loops show a large, sloppy-looking storm. Storms that start off as large, non-tropical systems like 93L typically take several days to organize and become fully tropical, and 93L will not have time to become anything worse than a minimal tropical storm. The storm is capable of dumping some heavy rains along its path--radar estimated precipitation from the Tallahassee radar (Figure 1) were as high as three inches. As 93L becomes more tropical in nature, it will be able to generate higher rain amounts. But, with the storm expected to move inland by Saturday afternoon, it does not appear 93L has time to generate the kind of tropical rains that would make it a serious flood threat.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather has developed in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica, in association with a surface trough of low pressure. This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Cozumel and Cancun on Saturday as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The region will need to be watched for development on Sunday as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict an upper air pattern favorable for formation of a tropical depression over the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday. Heavy rains from this system may hit Louisiana and/or Texas on Monday.
A non-tropical low pressure system about 1000 miles east of Bermuda is being watched by NHC for tropical development. This low is expected to move northeastwards out to sea 2-4 days from now.
Figure 2. Current visible satellite image showing 93L near the Florida Panhandle (top of image) and the western Caribbean disturbance (bottom right of image).
I'll have an update late this afternoon when the next set of computer models runs are available.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Posted By: hurricane23 at 6:01 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.
That core of thunderstorms you guys see is not were the NHC has there center placed...New center possible?
I don't think you're right about that. NHC places the center at 29.7 N, 85.9 W, which is almost due west of Appalachicola.
The green L you saw on my radar is exactly were the NHC has it placed....Just pointing out that developing core is not were the NHC has it.
but it does look like a new center is forming??
aubiegirl, you should be watching the rain bands
ok to me they look like they are firing up a bit..ok I think I got clarification...on center..it is what i was watchin..
Nightmare traffic....Stay of I95!
Wait?? What? Passenger Plan? You mean Plane?
we may be seeing Jerry before 5pm
recon found 38.6mph winds at the surface right at the 2pm location, in that little eyewall
do they make special advisories for such small storms?
The green L you saw on my radar is exactly were the NHC has it placed....Just pointing out that developing core is not were the NHC has it.
Actually, the green L on your radar was well to the southwest of Appalachicola, not where NHC places the center of TD 10.
I just took a look and it seems to be organizing better. TS Jerry at 5pm?
30,86 more or less, moving nw--doesn't that put it more towards FWB? If it's moving nw, it's not moving parallel to land, right?
I thougth I was seein that too!!.just didn't want to put myself out there with that statement
Wow passenger plan not confirmed crashes into I95! in florida.
Wait?? What? Passenger Plan? You mean Plane?
No at first they said passenger but then its now confirmed a twin engine completely destroyed right on i95....
This is not weather related but basically wanted to alert folks in fort lauderdale to avoid I95!
This may go on till landfall,or may consolidate to one eventually.
The Mobile radar loop here
Link
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.
HURRICANE JERRY BY 11AM TOMMOROW?
Uh no....This will run out of water before it gets the chance.I see something in the range of 45-50kts.
A MapQuest view of TD10's last reported location at 29.7N 85.9W. You'll have to click the 5th rectangular button from the bottom to get usable detail. 4th from the bottom to see NewOrleans.
Unless TD10 starts moving southward as well as westward, landfall pretty much hasta take place somewhere between EglinAirForceBase*Florida and NewOrleans,Louisiana.
* Just east of Pensacola
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/1731Z
B. 29 DEG 40 MIN N
86 DEG 4 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1477 M
D. 30 KT
E. 100 DEG 7 NM
F. 180 DEG 36 KT
G. 100 DEG 7 NM
H. 1006 MB
I. 17 C/1522 M
J. 17 C/1539 M
K. 17 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 05IIA INVEST OB 15 AL102007
MAX FL WIND 36 KT SE QUAD 1704Z
MAX SFMR WIND 37 KT SE QUAD 1705Z
SLP FROM SONDE
CENTER SONDE 15 KTS AT SFC
I am in Fort Walton beach and it is a calm as can be. A little overcast. I beleive TD10 will be less then a strong summer thunderstorm!
I agreee..it was actually windier earlier today
Viewing: 801 - 851
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