Gulf of Mexico low nears tropical depression status
A large low pressure system (93L) over the Gulf of Mexico has gradually been acquiring tropical characteristics, but is in no hurry to intensify. Top surface winds measured at buoys in the Gulf of Mexico this morning have been 30 knots (35 mph), so this storm could technically qualify as a tropical depression if the current hurricane hunter mission finds a well-defined center of circulation. There are two Hurricane Hunters aircraft in the storm right now, and they have found several swaths of surface winds of 35 mph. Long range radar loops from the Florida Panhandle clearly show the storm's circulation, but the low level spiral bands are not well organized and are only slowly getting more organized. Satellite loops show a large, sloppy-looking storm. Storms that start off as large, non-tropical systems like 93L typically take several days to organize and become fully tropical, and 93L will not have time to become anything worse than a minimal tropical storm. The storm is capable of dumping some heavy rains along its path--radar estimated precipitation from the Tallahassee radar (Figure 1) were as high as three inches. As 93L becomes more tropical in nature, it will be able to generate higher rain amounts. But, with the storm expected to move inland by Saturday afternoon, it does not appear 93L has time to generate the kind of tropical rains that would make it a serious flood threat.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather has developed in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica, in association with a surface trough of low pressure. This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Cozumel and Cancun on Saturday as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The region will need to be watched for development on Sunday as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict an upper air pattern favorable for formation of a tropical depression over the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday. Heavy rains from this system may hit Louisiana and/or Texas on Monday.
A non-tropical low pressure system about 1000 miles east of Bermuda is being watched by NHC for tropical development. This low is expected to move northeastwards out to sea 2-4 days from now.
Figure 2. Current visible satellite image showing 93L near the Florida Panhandle (top of image) and the western Caribbean disturbance (bottom right of image).
I'll have an update late this afternoon when the next set of computer models runs are available.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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the people that "LIVE" in Panama city need Panama city!
Who needs Panama City? And there has only been one hurricane ever recorded in Panama, so it's not likely..
You're added to my ignore list...up to 19.
I said last year i was wanting to see what a 200 mph hurricane could do to panama city...i was just curious
err but i take that back...I DON'T WANNA KNOW
You'd lose the Hathaway bridge, and that's the best thing that'd happen all week. :P
I haven't looked at Panama City, but back when Katrina hit, I looked at what'd happen to southern Okaloosa county (seeing as how I'm tasked with planning for the end of the world, I figured it was worth my time) in a Category 5 storm.
Destin ceases to exist; Fort Walton Beach gets cut in half (one half is underwater, and the other is leveled from wind damage). The northern communities fare a little better, but anything within a couple miles of the water pretty much gets written off.
The worst part, though, is that we lose all the bridges and Highway 98, so that there's exactly one road out of the county - Highway 85 - which is lined with trees all the way to I-10.
Never a dull moment in your house! LOL
STATE OF EMERGENCY has just been declared in LA.
The state of emergency was declared yesterday, it was not "just" declared.
Are you refering to Panama City Panama?
The original post is refering to Panama City Florida.
If you read the discsussion for STD10 it mentions how there is a very broad center. It also talks about a turn more towards the WNW. I have a funny feeling that the actual center will consolidate further south which means it will stay off shore and will continue a more westerly path and threaten Texas still. Not wishcasting here...just something I see happening.
Shawn
We're talking about Panama City, Florida.
thelmores -- Yeah, I have the next Max Mayfield, Jim Cantore and Stephanie Abrahms on my hands at the moment! *LOL* Surprisingly, they are good at weather info and LOVE looking around Weather Underground with me! :-)
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I have a question for you all concerning the Western Caribbean disturbance. Taking a look at the water vapor imagery, it seems to me that the convection is moving rapidly to the NE towards Florida in response to the broad low pressure associated with STD 10. With this flow, how would this disturbance go over the Yucatan Peninsula and into the BOC? I just don't see that happening. This is not in any form wishcasting, but observation.
You are not wishcasting as I'm seeing the same thing. Before i thought it was going into the Bay of Campeche across the Yucantan but using water vapor, I see the same thing.
Thays a good question. I wish I had a good answer. Anyone?
Hurricanes can only strengthen to a certain extent. There is a reason why it only goes up to cat 5. So in other words, the worst you are really going to get is a Wilma, Camille or Katrina. It wouldnt matter if we had 15 storms or 5.
Posted By: nrtiwlnvragn at 3:14 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.
7MileBeach
The TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS will give you more information on your part of the world.
I'd certainly miss it. A lot nicer place to live than many, maybe even most.
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