Gulf of Mexico low nears tropical depression status
A large low pressure system (93L) over the Gulf of Mexico has gradually been acquiring tropical characteristics, but is in no hurry to intensify. Top surface winds measured at buoys in the Gulf of Mexico this morning have been 30 knots (35 mph), so this storm could technically qualify as a tropical depression if the current hurricane hunter mission finds a well-defined center of circulation. There are two Hurricane Hunters aircraft in the storm right now, and they have found several swaths of surface winds of 35 mph. Long range radar loops from the Florida Panhandle clearly show the storm's circulation, but the low level spiral bands are not well organized and are only slowly getting more organized. Satellite loops show a large, sloppy-looking storm. Storms that start off as large, non-tropical systems like 93L typically take several days to organize and become fully tropical, and 93L will not have time to become anything worse than a minimal tropical storm. The storm is capable of dumping some heavy rains along its path--radar estimated precipitation from the Tallahassee radar (Figure 1) were as high as three inches. As 93L becomes more tropical in nature, it will be able to generate higher rain amounts. But, with the storm expected to move inland by Saturday afternoon, it does not appear 93L has time to generate the kind of tropical rains that would make it a serious flood threat.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Elsewhere in the tropics
An area of disturbed weather has developed in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica, in association with a surface trough of low pressure. This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Cozumel and Cancun on Saturday as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. The region will need to be watched for development on Sunday as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The NOGAPS and GFS models predict an upper air pattern favorable for formation of a tropical depression over the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday. Heavy rains from this system may hit Louisiana and/or Texas on Monday.
A non-tropical low pressure system about 1000 miles east of Bermuda is being watched by NHC for tropical development. This low is expected to move northeastwards out to sea 2-4 days from now.
Figure 2. Current visible satellite image showing 93L near the Florida Panhandle (top of image) and the western Caribbean disturbance (bottom right of image).
I'll have an update late this afternoon when the next set of computer models runs are available.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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--Hey, Niceville!
---the blog is soooooo slow. I made this post yesterday.
I love it when people say never ever. They are just asking for it. I am also sure that a Cat 4 will never ever head west to east through the Caribbean in November. Oh wait, it already happened.(Lenny)
I'm going out on a limb here...
Shawn, while I'd never say that's impossible, it would have to go south of west to threaten our state; and, it's been moving NNW.
Another obs to add...is that the convective mass maybe appears to be moving towards the NNE on water vapor imagery but the apparent center is moving northward as per visible imagery. [caribbean disturbance]
Looks like the drive will be a bit wet. Hopefully, I can beat the big storm bands...
Flynns - what's the expectation for rain/winds in the next 4 hours?
a major hurricane landfall next week is
very likely.
Just becuase this doesn't go above what it is doesn't mean it can't be a bad storm.
Prayers go out those in the path of this storm :(
In my Obs.
NEXRAD Radar
Red_Bay Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI 19frame Loop
STD-10
Link
Cloudtops
Four hours? Eh. It might rain a bit. Winds will probably stay under 25 mph. As we press forward into the evening, and into early morning, we'll probably see more.
looks like it is trying to form a new COC to the S of the old one... that would be bad news because it would allow more time for it to develop...
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico
Link
Hello 456....Is that movement of the blob or wind shear on the blob making the movement look NNE?
I dont like to use the term wind shear but yes the upper winds across the area are from the SW/W so that is driving the convection east of the "center".
That was the point I was trying to make in my last message. I said I had a funny feeling that it would do that. Let's see if it continues...
Shawn
Elena was the most erratic storm I ever remember.
Most of the city weathered Hurricane Betsy in 1965 without severe flooding, with the major exception of the Lower Ninth Ward neighborhood. The Lower Ninth Ward is separated from the rest of the city by the Industrial Canal and Gulf Intracoastal Waterway. It was flooded not by rainfall, but by a breach in the Industrial Canal levee, resulting in catastrophic flooding and loss of life in the neighborhood.
By the 1980s, the city boasted a system of 20 pumping stations with 89 pumps, with a combined capacity of 15,642,000 gallons per minute, 22.5 billion gallons per day, equal to the flow of the Ohio River.
good call, but i dont think it is still far enough south to have a Tx hit..... Tx may be more effected though if this takes over to be the main COC.
Posted By: Weather456 at 3:39 PM GMT on September 21, 2007.
The Caymans and Cuba may get up to 50-80 mm of rain in 3hrs
This could mean it goes west and stays longer in the water.If it does we will have hurricane jerry tomorrow.
Do you guys think TD10 will be our last tropical concern for the US Mainland?
Look South in the Carribean? What do you think. This year is far from done IMO.
i think you are way off
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