TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Thanks LC - I'm glad someone looked - I sometimes get tired of "it's only a fish storm"
I do as well. I've had always heard them called, "ship storms." This blog was the first time I heard or read the usage, "fish storms."
456 that map olny updates at 10:30pm and 11:30am olny
i know...but it points out the locations fairly good.
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I think that 2 of the 4 will become TD next week. What are the chances of all becoming TDs? (Rhetorical)
I think that person was trying to say the wave looks better at that longitude than Felix or Dean did, not that it will become a Cat 5.
Thanks for the great sat. photos and graphics - I never have to leave this blog to get all the info. I want.
Now - a question for you history buffs - how often has a developed storm made it all the way across the Atlantic to the islands at this time of year. I know it's rare. I even remember when Ivan formed - way out there - that the pundits said it was highly unusual for a developed system to make it that far(and as I recall it was further west) without recurving. Any insights??
Icepilot that was a great reminder about the souls at risk on the water. I'm sure that some of us chased those dots around for years at a time. I hope StormW sees the chart. (Memories)
Ya, I was a member of Uncle Sam's Confused Group for 30+ yrs
Thank you for that description of Epsilon and Zeta...definately not what the NHC expected.
Wow, that is a nice circulation. Definately an invest soon.
dont feed the trolls Bobby
I won't. I never will even if they ban me for it.
dos 94L or 95L have a closed SFC circulation???
That quicksat won't come out for a few hours. might misses 95L...
The CV wave has a good circulation though a bit broad but there.
I don't understand why the CV wave is not an invest yet, with all this data coming in. oh well.
they will they will it will be 96L by the 10pm if not tonight then 1st thing sunday or some time on sunday for sure but will have it for sure
Do they have to wait for the storm to get to a certain longitude before they can declare it an invest? They cant really put one of their floaters over it until it is in the GOES east region. Or, if a storm develops that far east, do they just jump straight to depression status? It seems this should be an invest right now, considering its structure. 94L definately does not look as nice, except it is much closer to land.
95L
the one east of the islands looks good too
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