TD 10 spawns EF-1 tornado in Florida; new disturbance a threat to Texas and Louisiana
Tropical Depression Ten moved ashore last night over the Florida Panhandle, bringing rains of 1-5 inches over the region (Figure 1). The most serious weather associated with the depression occurred when a tornado ripped through Eustis, Florida at 11 pm Friday night. The EF-1 tornado had winds up to 105 mph, and damaged about 100 homes. The remnants of TD Ten are over southern Mississippi this morning, and additional severe weather or heavy rain is not expected.
Figure 1. Estimated rainfall for TD 10 from the Tallahassee, Florida radar.
Western Caribbean disturbance 94L
An area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica is associated with a surface trough of low pressure. NHC designated this area "94L" this morning. Satellite loops show that the heavy thunderstorm activity has increased today in the region, but remains disorganized. A buoy in the region recorded sustained winds of 31 knots, gusting to 35 at 4:50 am EDT. The winds have since subsided to 20 knots. Cancun radar shows heavy rains have already moved ashore over the eastern Yucatan. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a circulation, and very little evidence of even a wind shift in the region. Thus, the earliest I expect 94L can become a tropical depression is Sunday afternoon. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 94L Sunday afternoon.
This disturbance will bring heavy rains to Belize, Cozumel, Cancun, and western Cuba today as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture streaming northwards from the disturbance will also cause locally heavy rains across the Florida Peninsula. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots over the disturbance, and the NOGAPS and GFS models predict this shear will stay low enough to allow a tropical depression to form on Sunday when 94L crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. By Monday afternoon, my best guess is that 94L will make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border. That doesn't give it much time to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Today's 12Z (8 am EDT) run of the GFDL model did not develop 94L. The 12Z SHIPS model developed it into a 45-mph tropical storm by Monday morning. Regardless, Texas and/or Louisiana can expect very heavy rains Monday and Tuesday from this system.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A few clumps of heavy thunderstorm activity exist along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), about 800-1200 miles east of the southernmost Lesser Antilles. This activity is moving west at 10-15 mph, and is very disorganized. Nevertheless, the region is under only about 10 knots of wind shear, so we will need to watch this area for development. A tropical wave near 6N, 23W, about 60 miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa, has some vigorous thunderstorm activity associated with it. This morning's 4:30 am EDT ASCAT pass showed a nearly complete circulation, and visible satellite images also show a fair bit of spin. This wave has the potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week as it moves westward at 15 mph.
I'll be traveling Sunday, and will not post a blog if the Western Caribbean disturbance fizzles. Otherwise, I'll post something late Sunday afternoon when the Hurricane Hunter mission sends back data.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Yes some always predict the worst. I assume you were talking about Psuedo TD 10. What I learned from this blog, the NWS, and other sources was not to cancel plans for Saturday. Sometimes you have to use your own judgement based on all the information.
definitely here in miami
If anything does develop, current 850mb steering is NNW or even NW. The approaching CONUS trof is lined up N/S now and pushing E. This is the same trof that picked up xTD10 and ran it N then NE. (also the same trof that a few others mentioned as a factor for 94l). Some of the early model runs indicated a hard left for 94l in the BOC-probably because indications were that the CONUS trof would miss it. Development has been delayed to say the least and this may/may not happen imho.
Suppertime!
96L.INVEST
94L.INVEST
11L.JERRY
10L.NONAME
TV mets have been so beat up about panic mongering they're afraid to stick their necks out...most play it very conservative....
There has to be some happy medium between panic mongering and pretending the storm won't do much harm. Maybe we are a bit closer to finding it now than we used to be. These days I hear tv mets saying things like "we're watching a system in the tropics, and we'll let you know how much it's likely to affect our area" instead of "there's a system out there, but it's not going to affect us so chill".
I dont believe that anyone is wishing bad things on anyone. Its a site/blog about storms.
456 i have that one which which is available to the public.Here is the one i mean is only allowed for cira personnel.
Meteosat 4km VIS/IR2 Floater
Neither can I.
hi David,
The initiation and re-centering of our floaters is now handled by the
Satellite Services Division tropical analysts who keep an eye on them
24x7. These areas should have been put on the website once our
analysts
began tracking them. This is the first season that they have been
given
this responsibility and I'm sure there are still a few bugs to be
worked
out.
Your request for additional floaters has been echoed by others, and we
are hoping to add additional floaters to the system for next years
hurricane season.
i e mail the SDD about the floaters here iw what they siad
LOL - thanks Taz!
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:30 PM AST on September 23, 2007.
456 i have that one which which is available to the public.Here is the one i mean is only allowed for cira personnel.
Meteosat 4km VIS/IR2 Floater
Neither can I.
Yes thats the one i have access to but cant post images.Hopefully this thing will push west soon so SSD will get a floater on it.I spoke to a buddy of mine at SSD and from what i heard the floater could be placed sometime mid-morning tommorow.
97L looks ok and is in the right area to quickly intensify. Shear will be an issue for a while. I believe this one, if it holds, will move more NW in a few days and DR is in the sights.
Like this am, I am not sure about 94L doing much of anything.
is it becuz they wont allow you? or some other reason?
Looks to me like another sprawling system bringing showers to Florida.
Thanks 456 for the comparison from noon to 7 p.m. It shows 96L becoming more organized. How long will it take to get to about 60W?
4 - 6 days at current speed.
hi David,
The initiation and re-centering of our floaters is now handled by the
Satellite Services Division tropical analysts who keep an eye on them
24x7. These areas should have been put on the website once our
analysts
began tracking them. This is the first season that they have been
given
this responsibility and I'm sure there are still a few bugs to be
worked
out.
Your request for additional floaters has been echoed by others, and we
are hoping to add additional floaters to the system for next years
hurricane season.
dos that help out on why they have not put 96L up on the SDD site yet?
Depends on the front that is moving down from the North ... If it doesn't move far enough south the storm will turn west.
Here's an updated image from EUMETSAT...Images update every 15 minutes.
That is the best looking storm, this far east, that I have seen in a long while. It is developed into a classic invest. That shot certainly gives it an almost hurricane look already. There is no doubt, by sight, it should be nothing less than a TD. I think it has a chance to be one fo the earliest forming canes.
wonderering if 96 L developes would it turn into fish storm or possibly move more west n affect leewards?? any thoughts?
all depends on the subtropical ridge and mid-latitude weakness. If there's a weakness in the ridge then it may be a fish..otherwise..its going westward. Another factor is 96L's very low latitude (below 10N) so if there's a nw turn it may occur late (after 50W). Its really too early to say if it will affect us in the leeward islands so the most we can do is monitor. remember 96L is almost 6 days out so alot can change by the weekend.
look at this link
The reason 96L is not on a floater is they would have to create the floater from the Full Earth scan, which only occurs every hour. For the normal floater we see, they use the Extended N Hemisphere scan which occurs every 30 minutes but only from 20S-66N/45-120W.
Link
456 the data is under a special agreement from the European satellite agency (EUMETSAT).
ok
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