Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Karen defeated; new disturbance a threat to the Gulf of Mexico

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 16:33 GMT le 30 septembre 2007

Wind shear put an end to Tropical Storm Karen yesterday. Karen's remains continue to generate a large area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands (Figure 1). This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed some rotation still exists near the surface, with winds up to 30 mph. Wind shear has fallen to 20 knots over Karen's remains, and some of the models forecast the shear will fall below 15 knots by Tuesday, which may allow redevelopment of the storm. Both the UKMET and NOGAPS model revive Karen later this week, and show it moving very slowly to the west towards the U.S., but well offshore. The GFS model keeps the shear high, and does not redevelop Karen.

Figure 1. This morning's visible satellite image.

Bahamas tropical disturbance
A potential significant threat area has developed today off the U.S. East Coast along an old frontal boundary. Several areas of heavy thunderstorm activity have started firing up along this old front. Wind shear is about 20 knots over the region today, so only slow development will occur. By Tuesday, the shear is forecast to drop below 15 knots, and most of the computer models are forecasting that a tropical depression will form near Florida or Cuba. This storm is forecast to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico, pushed by a strong ridge of high pressure expected to build in. An upper-level anticyclone aloft is expected to develop as well, providing an environment favorable for intensification. The UKMET model is forecasting a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane by Friday for the Texas/Mexico border region. The other models are not so aggressive, but all see the possibility of a tropical storm impacting the western Gulf of Mexico in Louisiana, Texas, or Mexico sometime Thursday through Saturday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into this system Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Texas is at highest risk from this potential storm.

Melissa
Tropical Depression Melissa is not long for this world, thanks to wind shear of 15-20 knots that is expected to increase further as Melissa heads northwest. Melissa is not a threat to any land areas, and will not be around three days from now.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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601. DebrisRemoval 00:18 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Tropicnerd - where do you get the UKMET model past 48hrs?

603. Eyewall911 00:24 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Hello, Nice to see the tropics are nice and quiet again. Maybe it will stay that way.

605. pablolopez26 00:27 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
The Low off of Florida, if it does develop, what parts of Texas would need to watch out? Brownsville area??

606. LesterNessman 00:28 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Posted By: StSimonsIslandGAGuy at 12:15 AM GMT on October 01, 2007. "Has the debate about Karen's demise ended?" Yes. Karen will be re-emerging in a few days. I thought everyone knew that already.

607. Dakster 00:29 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Rain was nasty today in South Florida. I guess with this system hanging around we are going to have bad weather. At least we had some scattered sunshine today. Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4932

608. help4u 00:29 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Should be quiet Most of the week. Member Since: 18 septembre 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1069

609. Hurricaniac 00:29 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Karen's gone but what about that new disturbance?

610. Cavin Rawlins 00:30 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Lots of rain on the way for us in the islands Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

612. BajaALemt 00:30 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Tropicnerd - where do you get the UKMET model past 48hrs? You can run UKMETS going back to 9/25 here Link

615. Dakster 00:31 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Lester - lol.. Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4932

617. mississippiwx23 00:33 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Lester...funny and true. The whole TX coast would need to be watching. Remember, TD10 at first looked like it was going to TX, and where did it make landfall? Member Since: 20 août 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 683

618. Dakster 00:33 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Stormw's Back!! What is your current take on the system between the Bahamas and Florida? Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4932

620. BahaHurican 00:34 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Days off? Doubt it. Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17621

622. Cavin Rawlins 00:35 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
No, retired Gunnersmate, USCG. I am basically self taught at meteorology, having taken some courses on my own at home,* and while on active duty. Took a MET2010 Spohomore course in college as well.* Same here Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

623. stormybil 00:36 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
so the area we are watching is the 1010mb at 26n 76 w for development am i correct

624. Cavin Rawlins 00:36 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Very impressive tropical cyclone in the south china sea Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

625. DebrisRemoval 00:37 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Thanks Baja, I have that link, but how do you get the UKMET to show forcasts past 48hrs?

626. FLWeatherFreak91 00:37 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Posted By: LesterNessman at 12:30 AM GMT on October 01, 2007. Posted By: pablolopez26 at 12:27 AM GMT on October 01, 2007. "The Low off of Florida, if it does develop, what parts of Texas would need to watch out?" Probably the Gulf Coast part... LMAO! Member Since: 1 décembre 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3458

628. BajaALemt 00:38 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Gulf is NOTORIUS for last minute changes. TD10s a good example. I saw the clouds at the COC off to my west (from PCB) and when I got in the house and looked at radar, it was moving due north for the Destin/Ft. Walton area. And a few minutes earlier, NHC had just issued forecast....running WEST on the coast toward LA...landfall another day away shrugs

629. BahaHurican 00:38 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Jeez, 456, u nearly scared the LIFE outta me with that pic! Is that xKaren?!?!?!! OHmyGOODness . . . Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17621

630. HurricaneGeek 00:41 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
When are the HurricaneHunters flying into the Bahamas area? Member Since: 10 mai 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

631. Cavin Rawlins 00:41 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Posted By: BahaHurican at 8:38 PM AST on September 30, 2007. Jeez, 456, u nearly scared the LIFE outta me with that pic! Is that xKaren?!?!?!! OHmyGOODness . . . lol..no not Karen....Lekima (16W) Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

632. hahaguy 00:42 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
is it just me or is ex karen growing Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838

633. BajaALemt 00:42 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
smacks forehead.....LOL, I thought you meant past as in...OLD..not NEW laffs @ self

634. extreme236 00:42 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Posted By: BahaHurican at 12:38 AM GMT on October 01, 2007. Jeez, 456, u nearly scared the LIFE outta me with that pic! Is that xKaren?!?!?!! OHmyGOODness . . . LOL, no that is Lekema...because if that is (although I know its not) karen, then im a professional hula dancer :-) Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

635. Dakster 00:42 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Stormw - Looking forward to it! Hope you had a good day off... Member Since: 10 Mars 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 4932

636. HurricaneGeek 00:43 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
. Member Since: 10 mai 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

637. beell 00:44 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Just a minor point, the spin over FL right now is mid-level and above. Nothing at the sfc Member Since: 11 septembre 2007 Posts: 124 Comments: 12870

638. HurricaneGeek 00:45 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
So when are the HH flying into the Bahamas area? Member Since: 10 mai 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

639. bocaman 00:45 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
hey everyone, the south floridiot is in the house. Woke up here in pompano beach this morning with two palm frons laying on my hood. We've had winds gusting at times to 40mph in Pompano Beach.

641. extreme236 00:47 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
And just some interesting things to note: Tomorrow wil be october and that means that tomorrow evening, the NHC will issue their monthly report for the atlantic and the eastern pacific Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

642. extreme236 00:47 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Good night everyone! I look foreward to reading your analysis tomorrow StormW! :-) Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

644. BahaHurican 00:48 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Nah, I meant the one u posted at 8:30. Which [amazingly] IS xKaren . . . Not that Lemeka isn't also impressive. . . Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17621

645. 7544 00:51 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
sup people from reading the blog we are looking at 3 possible things for fla first 1 -the spin off of fla now 2- the spin in the ne bahammas 3- karn ? are these all could possibly effect fla . Member Since: 6 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

646. opbandman 00:52 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Storm W, Not a met? Really??!! Just goes to prove that a degree doesn't indicate intelligence. With hard work and a passion for what you love, you can learn anything. (BTW I agree with JFV.)

647. BahaHurican 00:52 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Actually JFV, we've got a few of that caliber, starting with the good Doctor . . . but not ending there. Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17621

649. Cavin Rawlins 00:55 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Possible Subtropical Low in the WPAC Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

651. HurricaneGeek 00:55 GMT le 01 octobre 2007
Can someone kindly answer my question on when the Hurricane Hunters are flying into the Bahamas area. Or if they even are or not. Yes StormW's reports are wonderful! Member Since: 10 mai 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039

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