Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

SW: Again to to see you . This is my first chanch to look at anaything today. Looks like Karen as a tropical anything is really gone, but the wave still has a large area of storms to watch. The stearing currents look like this could be a Sth Florida problem. Any comments before I shut down?

Link
MOistur coming into the GOM.

Is that spin?

I don't think any of these blobs will develop. Probably will have a quiet few days in the tropics for now.

The tropics are unpredictable, but none of those blobs look like they have a chance.

No signs of karen trying to comeback this evening as the thunderstotm activity flareing up is pretty much do to the interaction with an ULL in the vicinity.Overall i say the chances are rather low for a comeback but not impossible. Adrian

LOL...if we have 4-5 more named storms (and we still have ALL of October and November left), we will be in 3rd place for having the most named storms -beating 1995 and 2004. The seasons of 2005 (1st) and 1933 (2nd) remain the most active. Unless we have a EXTREMLEY active October, I doubt we'll come over 20 storms. And I give props to ALL the people who said that this year will have a busy late Aug-Sep-and probably Oct and Nov.

Posted By: TayTay at 2:11 AM GMT on October 01, 2007.

I don't think any of these blobs will develop. Probably will have a quiet few days in the tropics for now.

The tropics are unpredictable, but none of those blobs look like they have a chance.


Well, we have the Bahamas/South Florida diturbance which seems likely enough to become Noel. And, not to mention, we may have the remains of Karen and Melissa returning. So, I think that may be our only activity for the next week.

Night all - hurricane23, I agree with your comments in general. Karen is really dead however she has left behind a large area of storms that can still bring more than needed rain fall and possible storm related problems at landfall areas. This disturbance should still be watched until it is all gone.

Could we sts Noel soon and will it affect the n. GOM like tx and or la.???

last posted 1010 mb on the bahma== blob any new pressure readings yet tia

Posted By: Labayourambler at 2:24 AM GMT on October 01, 2007.

Could we sts Noel soon and will it affect the n. GOM like tx and or la.???

IMO, I think it will strenghten to minimal TS/STS strength prior to S. Fla landfall...it then enters the gulf and becomes a weak cat 2. at landfall in southern texas- maybe northern mexico. Though IF this becomes a subtropical storm, wouldn't it seem kinda funny having one of those in the warm GOM? Out of all places...

all that excitement last week took a toll on everyone I see. Hardly nobody blogging tonite.

Wow...so quiet...I remember it was CROWDED when we had that poor invest back in July out in the open atlantic.

ABNT20 KNHC 010230
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BAHAMA ISLANDS...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS OF A SUBTROPICAL NATURE...IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE REMNANTS OF
KAREN...EXTEND FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD
WEAKEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA IS LOCATED
ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING ONLY
LIMITED AND INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND REGENERATION
APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF KAREN AND MELISSA...PLEASE
SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

bastardi posted a special video tonight where he warns of possible impending problems with this florida distirbance in the gulf. Could develop and feedback pretty quick. keep alert Louisana and Texas. He has been pretty uncanning on calling these things from nothing this year.

Winds still out of the northeast. I dont see any signs of rotation.

Link (Decending pass...didnt look like anything on the ascending pass either)

is it saying it could be sts noel before it crosses over fla ?

can u post a link to the Bastardi discussion/video? TIA

First..an invest has to be declared.Then,, a TD or STD status,..then a named system if it become a Storm.Protocol is the way to do it.by the numbers.

NAM 66 hours out.

Link

Gabrielle visible loop from Dr. Masters' wind shear tutorial page.
Loop removed due to size.
NO!-L

well now the nhc says we could see a sts from the ne bahamas blob so it might be a invest during the dmax what you think

Aww. Quickscat missed the center! Well, atleast it got most of it. Strong winds, some are TS force.

: Stoopid1 at 2:48 AM GMT on October 01, 2007.

Aww. Quickscat missed the center! Well, atleast it got most of it. Strong winds, some are TS force.


thanks do you have a location for it tia

GOES WV Loop of Tropical Basin

Link

26N, 73W I believe.

NOGAPS 84 Hrs MLC Link

ok, We here in Houston have had a storm to the north and a storm to the south. NOW local news is saying one may ride along a high and come our way. So third time a charm? I dont know about this. It does seem to a little soon.

: Stoopid1 at 2:56 AM GMT on October 01, 2007.

26N, 73W I believe.

thanks right it hasnt move much today at all waiting for dmax

also accuweather last night said a ts at 1002 for miami on mon they may have been a day early looks more like tues or wend as this blob go west and could be sts noel before its approch what you think ?

See that Patrap. Thanks for the link. They're not through shooting at us yet!

Shhh! Lurking in progress.

Keep an eye on this pertabation in the ITCZ near 9N 35W There is a spin with it/ shear in the area is about 10 knots

Good eye, Sfury. Def rotation there.

Gulf of Mexico Infrared AVN loop


Link

The Docs entry above has the scenario outlined.Gnight all.

A potential significant threat area has developed today off the U.S. East Coast along an old frontal boundary. Several areas of heavy thunderstorm activity have started firing up along this old front. Wind shear is about 20 knots over the region today, so only slow development will occur. By Tuesday, the shear is forecast to drop below 15 knots, and most of the computer models are forecasting that a tropical depression will form near Florida or Cuba. This storm is forecast to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico, pushed by a strong ridge of high pressure expected to build in. An upper-level anticyclone aloft is expected to develop as well, providing an environment favorable for intensification. The UKMET model is forecasting a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane by Friday for the Texas/Mexico border region. The other models are not so aggressive, but all see the possibility of a tropical storm impacting the western Gulf of Mexico in Louisiana, Texas, or Mexico sometime Thursday through Saturday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into this system Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Texas is at highest risk from this potential storm.

nice rapidly firing convection over cen.keys miama south looks like coc sw of lake o offshore /over sw fla with nice easterly flow coming in over the north as per adds b/w i/r sat images it may pop and real soon

...steering confirms that movement Patrap. Also, Sfury, that blob should track westwards accordingly, too.


--Patrap, have a good sleep!

...lots of shear in the GOM in the present.

...some shear in front of the cAtl blob, but low now.

Shear expected to drop in many areas in the next 24hrs. Bound to get something to spin up soon.

So are we not mentioning the K word tonight? Shear dropping like a rock, convection firing right over that circulation we could see earlier today?

...vorticity shows the areas of concern.

Winds here in South Florida got pretty strong past 24 hours intermittently. Lots of tree branches on the streets and flower pots knocked over.

Rain wasn't too bad though.

MLC, can you give me some insight with that last shear map? I'm not sure if I understand it... it looks to me that the former Karen and the blob in Bahamas/FL are going to encounter much less shear tomorrow? TIA.

Hello everyone. Long time no chat! I hope y'all are doing well. Our local weather guy says that Bahama disturbance will just be a rainmaker for us on Friday, saturday, and sunday of next week.

Anyone here know what the wind max limit is for the windows in a car?

I've been in a Cat 4 here in Florida where the winds peaked about 130-140 in this area and it seemed like my home windows were about at there limit. So wondering if car windows have hurricane limits also.