Karen defeated; new disturbance a threat to the Gulf of Mexico
Wind shear put an end to Tropical Storm Karen yesterday. Karen's remains continue to generate a large area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands (Figure 1). This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed some rotation still exists near the surface, with winds up to 30 mph. Wind shear has fallen to 20 knots over Karen's remains, and some of the models forecast the shear will fall below 15 knots by Tuesday, which may allow redevelopment of the storm. Both the UKMET and NOGAPS model revive Karen later this week, and show it moving very slowly to the west towards the U.S., but well offshore. The GFS model keeps the shear high, and does not redevelop Karen.
Figure 1. This morning's visible satellite image.
Bahamas tropical disturbance
A potential significant threat area has developed today off the U.S. East Coast along an old frontal boundary. Several areas of heavy thunderstorm activity have started firing up along this old front. Wind shear is about 20 knots over the region today, so only slow development will occur. By Tuesday, the shear is forecast to drop below 15 knots, and most of the computer models are forecasting that a tropical depression will form near Florida or Cuba. This storm is forecast to move westward across the Gulf of Mexico, pushed by a strong ridge of high pressure expected to build in. An upper-level anticyclone aloft is expected to develop as well, providing an environment favorable for intensification. The UKMET model is forecasting a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane by Friday for the Texas/Mexico border region. The other models are not so aggressive, but all see the possibility of a tropical storm impacting the western Gulf of Mexico in Louisiana, Texas, or Mexico sometime Thursday through Saturday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into this system Tuesday afternoon, if necessary. Texas is at highest risk from this potential storm.
Melissa
Tropical Depression Melissa is not long for this world, thanks to wind shear of 15-20 knots that is expected to increase further as Melissa heads northwest. Melissa is not a threat to any land areas, and will not be around three days from now.
I'll have an update Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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One thing to remember though - wind often isn't what breaks windows, it is flying debris.
I knew I'd forget something. You'd think after all the plywood I've rushed over windows in the last few years, I'd remember why I was doing it. I must be getting tired.
All my excuses aside, you're exactly right. Flying debris is the main reason windows break. I've seen coconuts go by at Major League baseball pitcher speeds during a hurricane.
...I'm also interested in the area that SFury pointed out earlier and that QS apparently missed on the descending pass.
Link
48 HOUR FORECAST
--beell, you may be right. The flow appears to be very strong to the sw. But, too, the sfc map reflects the receding high pressure. Still, I think "if" indeed it forms, the movement surely would be more sw. jmho, too.
nuff bout me.
IMHO, Karen looks healthier. If you go by the last QuikSCAT for finding the center, it looks like around 16N, 55W. By those numbers, even factoring in that she's moved since then, that's clearly underneath that big ball of convection. Circulation is on three sides, nearly on four, and there's 25-30 knot winds quite close to the center. Working against her, however, north of the Antilles is a thin band of some pretty significant (40 knot) shear, and it's even getting a little stronger (where she is now is falling). I'd imagine that if Karen hits that kind of shear, that would ruin any chance of regeneration.
Did I miss anything?
Japan Meteorological Agency
LOW
1010 HPA AT 28N 172E
NW 15 KT. - (Sub-Tropical Depression according to SDD)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (91W)
1002 HPA AT 18N 130E
ALMOST STATIONARY
LOW PRESSURE AREA (92W)
1008 HPA NEAR 12N 145E
ALMOST STATIONARY
TYPHOON WARNING
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0714 LEKIMA
980 HPA AT 14.8N 112.7E
--SStripes, yes, the latest is descending.
1022mb to 1014 in the Keys.
Am seeing winds on the W coast of FL go more Northerly. They have been NE most of the day.
Link
.... Did I miss anything?
--Karen, we're also watching the area of neCuba where there seems to be an area of potential as the trough lifts. And, there's another area along the itcz in the cAtl that seems to have some spin, but missed by QS this evening.
--beell, nice answer for News2 and excellent supporting visual.
G'nite to all you good folks here this evening.
Would love to Moonlight w/ya but I got this job thing...
)
Link
I'm curious to see how things are looking tomorrow.
all that crap out there is coming west-- whatever lurks is coming west, nw wnw or wwwwwwwnw -lmao--------- nite all.......
lol fla wanted rain this is just the begining of wahts coming down the pipe including exkaren
000
AXNT20 KNHC 010552
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 01 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N
TO 9N BETWEEN 24W AND 25W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WEAK WAVE IS BARELY IDENTIFIABLE ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZED CLOUDINESS.
THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION SHOWS A SMALL AMOUNT OF WESTWARD-MOVING
MOISTURE THAT PROBABLY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK WAVE.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W FROM 19N IN THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA SOUTHWARD THROUGH GUATEMALA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW EXISTS IN MEXICO BETWEEN 90W
AND 96W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...SOME WITH WARMING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES...ARE BETWEEN 90W AND 96W IN MEXICO.
...THE ITCZ...
12N15W 8N23W 7N27W 8N35W 7N40W 6N43W 7N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM WEST OF AFRICA FROM 4N TO 13N.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
7N BETWEEN 17W AND 42W...FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W...
AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 36W AND 39W.
DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 65W...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
32N71W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NEAR 26N83W JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA GULF COAST TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N91W JUST OFF THE
NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE IS BEING PUSHED INTO THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW. STRONG RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN
THE AREA FROM CUBA TO THE BAHAMAS...SOUTH OF 30N WEST OF 70W.
IT HAS BEEN RAINING OFF AND ON IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N65W TO 30N70W TO 26N76W TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N80W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT STARTS TO DISSIPATE WEST OF 80W...AND EVENTUALLY
TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N74W TO EASTERN CUBA
NEAR 77W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA NEAR 17N80W. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT FROM THE AREA OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA/THE UPPER TEXAS COAST COASTAL MEXICO NEAR
21N98W. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS FROM
7 TO 10 FT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND TO 12 FT IN THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE NAPLES FLORIDA CYCLONIC
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ABOUT 80 PERCENT
OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EASTWARD...AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA TO HISPANIOLA AND EVENTUALLY ALONG 70W NORTHWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE AREA IS COVERED
BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE TROUGH WHOSE
BASE IS NEAR 8N57W. THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN IS
ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF HONDURAS AND NORTHEAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN
80W AND 83W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM A POINT 150 TO 180 NM SOUTH OF JAMAICA
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
WATERS OF HISPANIOLA...NORTHWARD TO THE BAHAMAS EAST OF 74W.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
NEAR ITS BORDER WITH PANAMA...IN AN AREA OF SOME MIDDLE LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 65W...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE REMNANT OF MELISSA NEAR
16N34W. A FEW BURSTS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO
17N BETWEEN 35W AND 36W. THE FLOW/PRESSURE PATTERN ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR NAPLES
FLORIDA TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 70W...TO THE TROUGH
THAT REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 8N57W OFF THE COAST OF GUYANA...
TO A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 47W/48W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH WHOSE BASE
IS 8N57W...FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W...AND FROM 16N
TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 26W AND
45W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH 32N22W TO 28N28W TO 29N40W. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 30N22W TO
28N29W. THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 28N29W TO 28N34W AND
29N37W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF LINE THROUGH 32N17W 30N21W 29N25W.
$$
MT
Good morning . . .
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE REMNANTS OF
KAREN...EXTEND FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN THIS AREA COULD
WEAKEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT
MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
Viewing: 851 - 901
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