Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

As long as you have shear low enough and SSTS above 26 degrees celsius and still some low level features to spark development, the season isnt over. I agree Drak that 1-2 systems are possible, in fact IMO likely. BBL

At 3:00 a.m. EDT, Friday, Noel had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph with higher gusts. Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 70 miles from the storm center, while tropical storm-force winds were being felt as much as 345 miles away. The strongest winds and heaviest rain were on the northern side of the storm.

i am taking the under.

i think there is a decent chance that the game is postponed..

Morning all..I see the blob that was discussed last night is our most recent invest.

Watch buoy 44004 as Noel passes over it during the next couple of hrs



The obs just to the north of of center is buoy 44004

I am totally confused now. I have been to every site I have bookmarked, including the Navy/trl site, and not one of them has been updated? It would appear that once they stop calling it a Hurricane no one cares where it is going?

Unless I am wrong from what I am reading.. Bascially you are going to have a Cat 2 whatever you want to call it hit a highly populated eastern US seaboard.

Something is wrong with this picture.. or at least it appears to be, am I missing a link somewhere that tells what is happening now with the track?

the buoy is reporting a pressure of 982 mb (29.0in)

BBL

I'm in Boston and watching Ex-Noel through a bay window. Right now it's nothing spectacular, about 20 mph near-continuous winds and blowing rain. It reminds me a bit of tropical storms that hit when I lived on the Gulf Coast, though colder. But if it has 75kt winds and a sub 980mb core, AND is strengthening, AND is shifting west, then I'm probably going to get hammered in 6 hours or so. I'll get video/photos if anything interesting happens before sunset.

I think Noel looks more tropical than extratropical, but thats just my opinion.

www.accuweather.com is doing a pretty good job of tracking the storm. The big picture, and then enter your local zip code and pretty good detail on your local forecast conditions. Looks like around cap code we are talking 85-100mph gusts...

Link

link for Noel info

anyone know what kind storm surge around the big apple?

The northeast is on the strong side of the extratropical system. Areas around Boston and Eastern portions of the Northeast states should prepare for heavy winds capable of wide spread power outages. Visible imagery shows that the circulation is moving to the North north east and could be just of shore when it approaches latitude 40N. The Navy NOGAPS model shows the circulation center just of shore while the GFS 12z is further to the east.

more infoLink

if this was winter time and if we had colder air this storm would be a major blizzard right right now

1563. Hhunter 3:46 PM GMT on November 03, 2007
Link

link for Noel info

Thank you very much :) More info there then I have found in the last hour looking myself.. I also notice something else. Over the last few daysI have heard the "B" name used a lot.. I take it this is where he hangs out.. first thing i saw was his name.

I am totally confused now. I have been to every site I have bookmarked, including the Navy/trl site, and not one of them has been updated? It would appear that once they stop calling it a Hurricane no one cares where it is going?

Unless I am wrong from what I am reading.. Bascially you are going to have a Cat 2 whatever you want to call it hit a highly populated eastern US seaboard.

Something is wrong with this picture.. or at least it appears to be, am I missing a link somewhere that tells what is happening now with the track?

Canada hurricane center
Latest advisory
Latest track (note the wind speed forecast is in knots)

Look at this imiage.....any doubt how strong..wow

Hey all - we're in Halifax and the wind has already started to pick up. How's Noel looking intensity-wise? Has he lost strength at all?

Environment Canada indicated the storm will lose some of its intensity, but we still can expect wind gusts up to 148 km/hr in some areas.

Look at the latest track.

Well, I've called most of the loved ones on the NE coast and just spoke with my sis-in-law on Nantucket.
She said one of the locals called her last night and said "We're gonna have a blow" so she went out in the dark and took in all her lawn furniture. But my brother near Boston hadn't heard it was going to be more than a rainstorm!
The NWS may have to eat crow at the end of this storm. I wish it would swallow hard and do something helpful NOW instead.

Wow, Noel looks like a BEAST. Jeez

Hey all - we're in Halifax and the wind has already started to pick up. How's Noel looking intensity-wise? Has he lost strength at all?

Environment Canada indicated the storm will lose some of its intensity, but we still can expect wind gusts up to 148 km/hr in some areas.

Thats what I read from the Canadian Hurricane Center.

Hurricane force wind warning for Cape Cod Bay Link

Nantucket island and Barnstable will probably see the worst impact, as the right front quadrant of the system could come close to that region. Radar already shows moderate to heavy precipitation in the area.

Looks like a "Cape Scrape" to me!

Hello StormW, looking bad for our friends in New England it appears.

new blog

I live on central long island along the south shore. What can I expect from this storm? Will I get TS winds or not?

New pic just updated.

1569. WPBHurricane05 3:53 PM GMT on November 03, 2007

I should have asked earlier, lots of information there, looks like it will come ashore around St John NB from that map.

Here is a cbc webcam from there

Link

TampaSpin...
Any thoughts on why the vapor loop indicates a westward jog, while the track is still posted with what seems to be an easterly jog?

Here's the Nantucket Harbor Cam!

http://nantucket.net/live/newharbor.php

your right mr b hangs out at accuweather.com

he is not a big fan of how nhc has handle this noel situation.

by removing the name correct in the class room but not given people in the NE the appropriate respect for what is about to occur. Long island. tropical storm force winds that is a yes...

is 91L moving nw now

the 100mph storm formally known as nothing looks to be moving slightly west of north now. Say 350 or 355 degrees. Man talk about getting caught with your pants down. check out the forming eye!Link

HHunter new blog up

old blog up