Cyclopsychic research breakthrough proves hurricanes/global warming connection
A stunning new breakthrough in hurricane research has conclusively settled the matter: global warming is making Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms more frequent. The new research, accepted for publication later this millennium in The Journal of Irreproducible Results, offers incontrovertible proof that global warming has increased Atlantic named storms by 57-67% over the past century. Using the pioneering new techniques of cyclopsychic storm detection and psychomortorodentiatempestology, the researchers, Professors Peter Webcaster and Judith Flurryfury of the Georgia Institute of Technophobia, and Dr. Greg Hallmonitor of the Colorado Association for Research and Modeling of the Atmosphere (CARMA), showed unequivocally that the lack of satellite measurements and aircraft reconnaissance in the early part of the hurricane record led to only a modest undercount of Atlantic tropical storms. Thus, more than half of the observed increase in named storms in the past century can be attributed to global warming.
"It's well-known that the number of Atlantic named storms has risen from 7-9 per year 100 years ago to 14-15 per year during the present active hurricane period that began in 1995," commented Professor Webcaster in an interview today. "Some MEEAT-loving hurricane researchers (Measure Everything, Everywhere, All the Time) have claimed that this rise was not real, since satellites and reconnaissance aircraft were not around to detect storms early in the hurricane record. We've made efforts in the past to quantify the number of 'missed' historical Atlantic storms using estimates of historical shipping traffic density, and computer regression models that compare recent well-observed storm activity to past storm activity. However, these studies have been pooh-poohed by the MEEAT men, who refuse to believe any science that comes out of a model. So, I began thinking about how we could actually go about observing historical Atlantic storms that were 'missed'. I began thinking the problem in a new light after watching my favorite episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation, "Timescape", where subspace entity mistakenly lays her eggs in the warp core singularity of a Romulan warship, creating a temporal anomaly that forces time to flow backwards. This inspired me to think outside the box, and it occurred to me that paranormal methods might offer a way to see back in time and make actual observations of past storms--and offer a technophobic solution to the problem, as encouraged by the charter of my university, the Georgia Institute of Technophobia."
Figure 1. Cyclopsychic observations of "missing" Atlantic tropical storms during the 20th century. All observations were performed by trained cyclopsychic Madame Cyclotropia. Note the significant drop in "missed" storms beginning in the 1940s, corresponding to the advent of aircraft reconnaissance, and in the 1970s, when satellite coverage of the Atlantic Ocean began.
Webcaster teamed with Hallmonitor and Flurryfury to experiment with a variety of paranormal techniques to make actual observations of past "missing" storms, using Ouija Boards, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. Initial experiments proved discouraging, though, when the researchers attempted to perform the study themselves. "We were feeling depressed about how the research was going, having just stayed up late one Friday night in Greg's lab in Boulder trying to get the dang Magic Eight Ball to say something other than just REPLY HAZY, TRY AGAIN LATER," related Dr. Webcaster. "So, we decided to give up for the night and down a few shots of grape jello spiked with grain alcohol and delve into Greg's extensive collection of Zippy the Pinhead comic books. After a few jello shots and Zippy comics, we got feeling pretty loose, and, Yow! Decided to trek down to Pearl Street to check out the weekend psychic fair. Well, we got to staggering around the tents of the psychic fair, belting out the sorrowful lyrics of our own version of "Somewhere over the rainbow" we made up:
Somewhere, over the ocean
Back in time
Cyclones formed and decayed
Unseen by humankind
Somehow, we'll find out how many
Before we die
But it doesn't look good
'Cause the Magic Eight Ball lies!
Suddenly, we saw a mysterious shadowy figure beckoning to us from the entrance of a nearby tent, which was emblazoned with the words, Madame Cyclotropia: Psychic Readings for Troubled Atmospheric Scientists. 'I can help you find your missing storms', the seer in the shadows croaked, 'for I know much that is hidden. Come into my lair, and I will reveal the key to unlocking the mysteries of storms long past'. Greg and I looked at each other, shrugged, walked in her tent, and the rest is history."
Once in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, the researchers quickly realized that their limited scientific training could not hope to allow them to conduct rigorous paranormal research. Only a true cyclopsychic with "The Gift" could see back into the dim mists of time to divine the existence of heretofore unknown tropical cyclones. Using her cyclopsychic gift, Madame Cyclotropia correctly divined the past tracks of numerous known storms the scientists challenged her with. However, when asked to divine the existence of "missing" Atlantic storms that had not made it into the official database, she prophesied that she would only be able to do so if the scientists would write her into their latest grant proposal. This grant proposal would surely get funded, she predicted. The scientists eagerly agreed, and headed back to the lab to work on the new proposal.
Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury's proposal, titled, "Using a Trained Cyclopsychic to Divine Past Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity", was submitted to the Foundation for Atmospheric Research for Science and Education (FARSE) in early 2007 and accepted later that year. After receiving their grant money, the scientists began spending long nights in Madame Cyclotropia's tent, documenting her revelations from the four primary cyclopsychic techniques: Ouija Board, crystal ball gazing, the Magic Eight Ball, and channeling of restless dead spirits. According to Dr. Hallmonitor, "We were thrilled when the first three techniques we tried all yielded virtually identical results, showing the robustness of our experimental methodology. The three techniques all showed a noticeable drop in the number of "missed" storms in the 1940s, when aircraft reconnaissance became available, and in the 1970s, when satellites coverage began over the Atlantic Ocean. However, when we tried to channel restless dead spirits, we ran into a roadblock. We couldn't find any restless dead spirits with an interest or knowledge of historical Atlantic hurricanes. We happily attributed this to the propensity of dead meteorologists to wind up inside Heaven's Pearly Gates, but were sad that our research would lack this crucial final proof of its validity. We were about to give up when Peter then hit upon the idea of contacting the spirits of groundhogs, who are known for their weather prognosticating ability. Some of these prognosticating rodents might have unfinished business that would keep their restless souls adrift in the ether, available for consultation on weather-related matters. We coined word psychomortorodentiatempestology to describe this exciting new branch of hurricane science, and set off in search of gifted groundhogs spirits with this special skill."
Figure 2. Wee Willy One and Chucky before their departure into the hereafter. Which rodent's spirit would you trust to get accurate weather information from?
Indeed, Madame Cyclotropia was able to contact the spirit of "Wee Willy One", a famed albino groundhog that had once burrowed under the fair gardens of Wiarton, Ontario, and provided weather forecasts each Groundhog's Day up until his death in 2006. Wee Willy One proved to be testy and uncooperative, though, deliberately delivering incorrect storm information. The researchers sought out help from cyclotherapy experts from the Center for Disease Control's Weather Related Illness Division to determine if cyclotherapy might help Wee Willy One overcome his bad attitude. Cyclotherapist Dr. Sandy Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One as a cyclopath suffering from rare form of cyclopsychosis. Ordinarily, cyclopsychosis manifests itself only in hurricane scientists and weather enthusiasts during the long, dull months prior to hurricane season. The despondent victims of cyclopsychosis spend long hours in front of flickering computer monitors in dark, gloomy rooms, obsessively poring over maps and statistics of hurricanes long gone by. The victims tend to become highly antisocial but never violent, and can be successfully treated with cycloactive drugs. However, Dr. Chirpchuckle diagnosed Wee Willy One with an extremely rare case of "shadow" cyclopsychosis, brought on by the cyclological trauma being rudely hauled out of his burrow each February 2 so that a bunch of cockamaimie humans could see whether he saw his shadow or not. "Shadow" cyclopsychosis is incurable, both in this world and the hereafter, so Madame Cyclotropia was forced to seek out other groundhog spirits. After months of effort, she finally found the spirit of "Chucky", a friendly groundhog that had once burrowed under the gardens of Nashville, Tennessee. Chucky eagerly provided accurate information on the "missing" Atlantic tropical storms that was precisely in agreement with the data collected from the other cyclopsychic techniques. "We were ecstatic," exclaimed Dr. Hallmonitor. "More jello shots!"
Hurricane experts world-wide are hailing the new findings. "These exciting results conclusively prove that even us blind squirrels can find some nuts," enthused renown hurricane expert, Dr. Kerry Readthemanual of the Massachusetts Institute of Technophobia. Dr. Readthemanual has been a leading proponent of the global warming/Atlantic hurricane link. Even former critics are praising the new findings. Dr. William Graymatter, Professor Ãœber-Emeritus of Colorado State University's Center for Hurricane Observation, Measurement, and Prediction (CHOMP), said in an interview: "I've been in the hurricane business for 113 years, and I know good research when I see it. The findings of Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury are based on solid observational evidence and white magic. There's no black magic involved, such as the use of a computer model, so their results are impregnable."
Dr. Chris Blandsee, Chief Scientist of the Natural Hurricane Center's division of Global Warming Isn't Responsible for the Recent Upswing in Atlantic Hurricane Activity, and Even If It Was, We Wouldn't be Able to Tell, Since the Quality of the Atlantic Hurricane Database is Too Poor to Use for Such Purposes (NHC/GWIRRUAHAEIIWWWATSQAHDTPUSP), has also been critical of past research showing a link between hurricanes and global warming, maintaining that global warming isn't responsible for the recent upswing in Atlantic hurricane activity, and even if it was, we wouldn't be able to tell, since the quality of the Atlantic hurricane database is too poor to use for such purposes. It was his Congressional testimony, along with that of former NHC director Max Minefield, which inspired President Bushwhacker's administration to rename the National Hurricane Center the "Natural Hurricane Center" last year. (This action was also urged by the Government Anagram Accountability Office (GAAO), which found that the letters in "National Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to spell the ominous phrase, "Errant Herculean Inaction"--and also the disturbing, "Teenier Charlatan Unicorn", and the clearly unacceptable, "Inhale Cocaine, Errant Runt!", while the letters in "Natural Hurricane Center" could be rearranged to form phrases much more in harmony with the NHC mission, such as "Natural, Neater, Crunchier.")
Dr. Blandsee grudgingly gave ground in his comments today. "It looks like Webcaster, Hallmonitor, and Flurryfury (and don't try to say her name three times fast) have done some pretty rigorous scientific work," he conceded. "But they've written what is probably the longest and most excruciatingly dull hurricane science paper of all time. All those old storms and their analyzed tracks that they talk about, on and on and on, year by year by year. Ugh! A lot of good trees died to publish that paper. It was even duller than some of my clunkers!"
What's next for the pioneering researchers? "Well, CARMA and the Georgia Institute of Technophobia are collaborating on a grant proposal with Dr. Graymatter and Phil Flossblack of CHOMP to apply cyclopsychic methods in a new way--improvement of seasonal hurricane forecasts," said Dr. Flurryfury. "We've submitted a proposal to FARSE titled, 'Gray Magic: Using Cyclopsychic Methods to Improve Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts'. Lord knows, the forecast busts of the past two hurricane seasons have shown that Flossblack and Dr. Graymatter could use some supernatural help with their predictions."
April Fools!
Meff Jasters
References
Hallmonitor, G.J., and P.J. Webcaster, 2007, "Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend?" Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A 365, Number 1860, 15 November 2007, Pages: 26952716 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2007.2083
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Conditions: Partly cloudy
Air Temperature: 78°F
Dew Point Temperature: 74°F
Relative humidity: 89%
Winds: SSE at 10 mph
Barometer: 30.03 inches
Can't imagine living there.
Animation illustrating the Saffir-Simpson scale and the type of damage caused by each category of hurricanes. Link
"We've seen the devastating effects of hurricanes – homes and other property completely destroyed. Insurance companies are still struggling to recover from Katrina," said Alice Gannon, senior consultant of EMB America. "The past two years have been quieter for insurers, but meteorological research indicates that we still experienced an uptick in North Atlantic hurricane activity. This is a trend that is likely to continue for several years, so insurers must prepare themselves to withstand losses in the event of another catastrophic landfall."
The threat of hurricanes has been at the top of the U.S. property and casualty insurance risk list since Hurricane Andrew devastated southern Florida in 1992, causing an estimated $26.5 billion in damages. Despite a drop in land-falling hurricanes in 2006 and 2007, both years experienced higher-than-average hurricane activity in the North Atlantic.
With the events surrounding Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and multiple land-falling hurricanes in 2004, U.S. insurers have experienced the implications of the increased frequency and severity of hurricanes nationwide. However, EMB cautions insurers not to be lulled into a false sense of security based on the relative calm of the past two years.
While hurricanes top the list of P&C insurance risk, other 'acts of nature,' including tornadoes, earthquakes, winter storms, fire and hail must also be accounted for when insurers assess their pricing strategies. The recent Atlanta tornado, which caused an estimated $250 million in damage and the 2007 California wildfires, which cost insurers over $1.5 billion, have made this clear.
"Accounting for the unaccountable, as we do with these 'acts of nature,' is the largest obstacle facing insurers," added Tom Hettinger, managing director of EMB America. "Companies should not be resting on their laurels when developing risk management strategies and determining prices. Instead, insurers need to factor in issues surrounding climate change and must look to incorporate long-term weather trends into their pricing."
Source: EMB America
Another early prediction for this years atlantic hurricane season from WX Weather Research Center
Here's part of what they had to say...
The 2008 hurricane season will see 11 named tropical storms, with six becoming hurricanes, weather researchers said on Monday.
Half the hurricanes will become strong hurricanes, and four named storms will make landfall in the United States, the Houston-based Weather Research Center predicted.
The 2008 forecast gives 70 percent odds a cyclone will hit West Florida and 60 percent odds storms will strike the Louisiana -Mississippi-Alabama coast and the U.S. east coast.
It could be a long season, with a 30 percent chance of tropical storm formation in May and a 10 percent chance in December, the news release said.
The center uses an index called the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index, developed in 1984, to decide the risk faced by various areas along the coast.
Based partly on the 11-year solar activity cycle, the index has accurately predicted the area at highest risk in all but three of the last 24 years, the news release said. (Reporting by Bruce Nichols; Editing by Christian Wiessner).
My quick take is this is garbage as its impossible to see what conditions will be present as far as SAL and many other features that go with a developing tropical cyclone months ahead.Cant believe they get paid for this junk.
1. New WMO/IWTC Statement on Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change
Given the high degree of interest in the possible relationship between climate change and tropical cyclones (including hurricanes and typhoons), a new summary statement on the topic has been developed by the global community of tropical cyclone researchers and forecasters as represented at the 6th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones of the World Meteorological Organization (November 2006). A more comprehensive statement was also developed at the workshop. Link
Fig. 1. Comparison of simulated hurricane intensities for present-day (thin line) and future (thick line) climate conditions assuming an 80-year build-up of atmospheric CO2 at 1%/yr compounded. The results are aggregated from sets of experiments using nine different global climate model projections and four different versions of a high-resolution hurricane prediction model. (Sharp display version)
Yep the Dr. has some influence. grin.
I'll take another boring season even though my passion for tropical cyclones will chew at me over the next 6-8 months.Iam not interested in seeing lives ruined or homes destroyed which is something that comes with the greatest storms on earth.We all most prepare for the worst and hope for the best as you should do every hurricane season.
I don't think so Adrian but we will see.
Drak if i could tell you who my friend is you actually might start to believe it.Unfortunately i cant put out his name.Nobody knows what going to happen in reality so its useless even talking about.
Anyway i was expecting a bit more shower activity today but got some brief but heavy downpours early this morning.
hard to believe there would be three quiet seasons consecutively
Mother nature does not keep track of how many seasons are quite and busy it just does not work that way.
317. Drakoen 4:01 PM EDT on April 02, 2008
I don't think so Adrian but we will see.
Drak if i could tell you who my friend is you actually might start to believe it.Unfortunately i cant put out his name.Nobody knows what going to happen in reality so its useless even talking about.
Anyway i was expecting a bit more shower activity today but got some brief but heavy downpours early this morning.
I can't believe much because its April 2nd LOL.
Wow just got word from a good friend of mine which has been studying tropical cyclones for almost 20 + years that he belives el nino will shut down this season to very low numbers will possibly as far as 4-5 hurricanes with only 1 major.
That would be an example of unexpected IMHO...
devastating results.
Adrian - just wondering. Your friend didn't tell you this yesterday did he? You know... April 1st?
lol...Actually he told me something about this a month ago.Again folks taking about what might happen is all in fun right now as nobody can tell you with good accuracy what areas are going to be affected and so on.Last year was not quite by any means at all with dean and felix rolling through the caribbean.It was a season that had me wondering a few times like humberto's incredible intensification and lets not forget Erin over land.
Sen. Barack Obama said Wednesday he would give Al Gore, a Nobel prize winner, a major role in an Obama administration to address the problem of global warming.
its coming and fast
before u know it will be here and as far as i can see 2008 just like the beginning which has been abnormal even now
will continue right into late summer
as for how many its anyones guess but one thing for sure they are coming an there is nothing u or i can do
be ready and watch how all the variables set them self up to give us little clues as it progresses along but weather will and can change always and it likes to make all us experts look a little stupid from time to time as it always does.
This might be trouble........lol
Sen. Barack Obama said Wednesday he would give Al Gore, a Nobel prize winner, a major role in an Obama administration to address the problem of global warming.
Mandatory "carbon credit" purchases by major indutrial polluters?.....That would be quite a fight in Congress......
It could develop, but I don't think as rapidly as he predicts. If it develops during hurricane season, I would imagine it would be around September or so. For El Niño to develop enough to the point where it would make this hurricane season inactive, it'd have to develop at record pace, similar to the 2006 El Niño, and I don't see that happening. Right now, La Niña is still going strong, with only slight warm anomalies far to the east near Central America:
So your friend says El Niño may develop and ruin the season, eh Adrian? It could develop, but I don't think as rapidly as he predicts. If it develops during hurricane season, I would imagine it would be around September or so. For El Niño to develop enough to the point where it would make this hurricane season inactive, it'd have to develop at record pace
Correct; there has been much thought over the last several seasons on this issue as to the "time lag" between seeing conditions either way, and, actually declaring a full blown "event" either way....At the current pace, if La Nina does begin to subside considerably, I could see an Enso Neutral start to the season before we ever got to an El Nino phase (later into this season if this prediction came to pass)...
hard to believe there would be three quiet seasons consecutively
THE 2007 HURRICANE WAS NOT INACTIVE!
For pete sake, just because only ONE Hurricane hits the USA that makes it inactive? We got to the
O name! Not all seasons are going to be 2005! Personly also, I think this season will be an ENSO year. 2007 had 2 CAT 5's in 3 weeks apart from eachother, hitting within a 2,000 Mile range! Imagine that in the USA! That would be New Orlenes and New York being hit!
Can anyone help me to better understand what would cause such records during the 2005 season? Thanks.
Here is a more detailed look at that season, from NOAA. Link
The CFS continues to show below average conditions in the Equatorial Pacific. And above average temps over the eastern Atlantic with average temps in the Caribbean:
Here is 2006 and 2008 juxtaposed together. You can see obvious differences with the extent of the Conditions.
As far as I can see, ENSO was in neutral conditions during the hurricane season
Here is a more detailed look at that season, from NOAA. Link
Interestingly, NOAA says that La Nina-like conditions occurred over the Pacific (which in fact lead to La Nina conditions by the winter); I have read that the most active seasons are those that have a cool ENSO bias
Regarding that last sentence Michael, where did you read that. Because according to what I have read and been taught in my meteorology classes La Nina contributes to cyclogenesis whereas El Nino does not. However, I have just never seen any statistics regarding strong La Nina versus weak La Nina. So where did you read about this? Thanks again.
Seems like a good all-round policy for life in general. ;~)
That is as bad as the people in Ely, Minnesota near the Arrowhead Region of Minnesota. They were advertising all day on April 1, that the Governor of Minnesota had contracted to sell the North Eastern Section of Minnesota to Canada to make up for our budget shortfall.
Personally I think you all have had way too much ....
LMAO
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