Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Ok, Drak! lol, could you please elaborate there, too - in layman Engrish? lol

Nice big look around, Vort!

I'm out, too, for a bit!

218. StormW 5:11 PM GMT on April 22, 2008
Just looking at the CFS model (Accuweather Pro Site)...it's calling for MSLP anomaly departures in most of the CATL during the Cape Verde season on the order of -1.5 to -2.5 mb

BBL.


Thats significant...

That would give emerging tropical waves an edge if I understand correctly...

I don't really care for the models when it comes to sub-tropical systems. These kinds of situations are such a mess as it is, and the computers usually don't make much sense of the data either. To me the sub-tropical category(wherever the boundaries of that are) is a whole different realm, that can produce order out of chaos when you would least expect it, or can just remain chaotic lol. I'm just looking forward to seeing how this system evolves.....it already has a well-defined circulation from top to bottom including at the surface......and the 850mb vort max is extremely impressive. This system packs quite a punch, we'll see where all that energy goes.

Ok, Drak! lol, could you please elaborate there, too - in layman Engrish? lol

Negative MSLP I think gives organizing thunderstorms an "edge"; and it makes it easier for a center of low pressure to establish itself...this wouldn't be great news for those praying for a calm CV season.

See ya, MLC, there's been so much great discussion around lately I'm practically taken notes down on a notepad so I can use it to make my own predictions!

251. moonlightcowboy 7:26 PM GMT on April 22, 2008
Ok, Drak! lol, could you please elaborate there, too - in layman Engrish? lol

Nice big look around, Vort!

I'm out, too, for a bit!

Lower pressure= more instability, adiabatic convection, deeper areas of low pressure.

.

Folks after doing some real looking at some models and looking at whats present the most likely outcome for this season in my personal opinion is neutral or weak la nina.It will likely maintain itself but futher intensification is not in the making from what i see.

That area near the Bahamas looks interesting...nothing likely to happen but in this off-season its better than nothing I guess.

I agree with your assessment on ENSO 23...I noticed the SOI isn't dropping much right now and neutral looks likely.

I don't really care for the models when it comes to sub-tropical systems. These kinds of situations are such a mess as it is, and the computers usually don't make much sense of the data either. To me the sub-tropical category(wherever the boundaries of that are) is a whole different realm, that can produce order out of chaos when you would least expect it, or can just remain chaotic lol. I'm just looking forward to seeing how this system evolves.....it already has a well-defined circulation from top to bottom including at the surface......and the 850mb vort max is extremely impressive. This system packs quite a punch, we'll see where all that energy goes.

Levi, you have to consider the models anyhow, nomatter what type of storm you're looking for. Also you must consider the environment this is in; and that it will absorb another cold core system in a day or so. Sea surface temperatures are not conductive for any sort of adavanced development except for the narrow slip that is the Gulf stream, and this system would have to nearly stall there for a prolonged period of time to gain enough energy to warm. All of the models, supported by the current pattern (and you don't need computer models to show that), forecast this system to be pulled to the southeast, then east, then north, in the wake of the easternmost through. This won't give it enough time to collect enough energy to warm it's core.

It does look nice though, you have to admit.

Folks after doing some real looking at some models and looking at whats present the most likely outcome for this season in my personal opinion is neutral or weak la nina.It will likely maintain itself but futher intensification is not in the making from what i see.

Afternoon H23; I agree with your assessment.

CLICK HERE for larger view!

Remember though, subtropical systems do not need warm cores, but its an important tropical characteristic and often times the NHC is reluctant to classify systems without a warm core.

H23, whats your opinion on this system?

Levi, you have to consider the models anyhow, nomatter what type of storm you're looking for. Also you must consider the environment this is in; and that it will absorb another cold core system in a day or so. Sea surface temperatures are not conductive for any sort of adavanced development except for the narrow slip that is the Gulf stream, and this system would have to nearly stall there for a prolonged period of time to gain enough energy to warm. All of the models, supported by the current pattern (and you don't need computer models to show that), forecast this system to be pulled to the southeast, then east, then north, in the wake of the easternmost through. This won't give it enough time to collect enough energy to warm it's core.

It does look nice though, you have to admit.

2 things lots of people know about me......one I always get mistaken for hyping development when I'm not lol, two....I love models but I use them as tools not my guide leading my blind self lol. I just hate sub-tropical situations.........yes conditions are pretty horrid for any kind of development, but again sub-tropical systems don't need much, and this is going to be a nasty rogue storm at the very least.

So would this just take an Andrea course if it were to form or would it be more threatening and does the other low stand a chance of forming?

TerraNova its an upper level low with slim chances at becoming anything close to tropical or even sub-tropical.Models have somewhat backed away from there earlier solution.Oh cmc please stop that!I can just imagine folks here when the cmc and gfs start putting out three phantom cat'5 rolling through south florida.The area is pretty much covered with pockets of 30-50kts of windshear.

The other low is going to be absorbed into the northern one.......and if this develops into anything, which is unlikely, then it would just head out east and eventually be picked up out to sea by a trough in 3 days and become extratropical. No threat to land really.

the shear over the one off the Carolina coast has about 20-30 knot shear over it at this time.

Don't know about sub-tropical systems, but, generally, two low pressure systems do not each develop significantly when in relatively close proximity; the dominant low will win the race and the Carolina's system has the best chance of development right now, if at all......Still looks like a pretty naked, but well organized, swirl to me right now........

So would this just take an Andrea course if it were to form or would it be more threatening and does the other low stand a chance of forming?

Regardless of whether this forms or not, yes, it will not impact land, but it is not out of the question that Bermuda may get a few showers and storms from this. It would follow a course to the east, away from the course, then gradually turn northeast.

A havn't really looked at the other two troughs in the Atlantic, but I doubt they've got anything in the way of development.

get rid of that image

272. StormW 3:51 PM EDT on April 22, 2008

I'd say you are probably in the Ballpark.....

Thanks StormW! I think Klotzbach's feedback regarding a possible favorable shift in the QBO is very significant indeed...

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
18:00 UTC April 22, 2008

At 1:00 AM WIB, Tropical Depression (996 hPa)located near 9.5S 95.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots and was estimated as 1010 kilometres southwest of Bengkulu and 1330 kilometres west southwest of Jakarta. The depression is reported moving east southeast at 66 kilometres per hour.

The depression is expected to develop into a TROPICAL CYCLONE within the next six to twelve hours.

Extreme weather is expected to develop caused by this tropical depression.

Probability of moderate into heavy rain and strong wind in West Sumatera, Weastern of South Sumatera, Western and Southern of West Java


Cyclone Alerts
==================
A CYCLONE WARNING for a Tropical Depression has been declared continues for areas Lebak, Pandeglang, Serang, Bengkulu Selatan, Bengkulu Utara, Rejang Lebong, Bandung, Ciamis, Cianjur, Garut, Kodya Bandung, Kodya Bogor, Kodya Sukabumi, Sukabumi, Tasikmalaya, Cilacap, Kodya Bandar Lampung, Lampung Barat, Lampung Selatan, Kodya Padang, Kodya Solok, Padang Pariaman, Pesisir Selatan, Sawahlunto-Sijunjung, Solok, Tanah Datar, Lahat and Musi Rawas.

---
moving east-southeast at 35 knots.. wonder if that is a mistake on TCWC Jakarta part.

westerly QBO phase appears to affect genesis of tropical systems in the central and eastern Atlantic 2005 had little activity in that area along with 95.

There just isn't warm water to support major tropical development under that upper low. It would have to do a "Noel" move from last season southward into Caribbean to fund sufficient heat energy to go tropical on us. In previous seasons the waters off Florida and Carolinas was much warmer going into May. The main threats from these type systems whether they be sub-tropical or not is coastal beach erosion and for shipping.

Adding to StormWs comment, the Bermuda High was so strong and so far west last season, it squashed developing systems and pumped dry "CONUS" continental air and cold upper lows into tropics through the entire season. Normally the Bermuda high does the opposite drawing tropical moisture northward into the S.E US. The result was drought/heatwave for much of the Southern States. I don't think that will happen again this season.

the shear over the one off the Carolina coast has about 20-30 knot shear over it at this time.

Shear is rapidly dropping also over that area, I still don't see any development occuring though.

MID/UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE CAROLINAS/GEORGIA WILL SUPPORT A
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN. THROUGH 48 HRS THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS CUBA/JAMAICA TO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. AT
250 HPA THE SUBTROPICAL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...AND IT
IS TO GENERALLY MEANDER OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. AT LOW LEVELS
THIS WILL SUSTAIN A BROAD TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE
USA WITH BASE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE MEAN AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD BY 48 HRS...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED LOW STARTS TO EJECT TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST. BY 72 HRS THE TROUGH WILL BECOME NARROW AND
ELONGATED AS IT EXTENDS ALONG 33N 50W TO THE BAHAMAS-CUBA.
FURTHERMORE...IN RESPONSE TO THE BROAD TROUGH PATTERN NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...AN 850 HPA INVERTED TROUGH IS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W BY 24 HRS. THE TROUGH WILL THEN
MOVE JUST WEST OF 70W BY 48 HRS... AND BY 72-84 HRS IT WILL START
TO DAMPEN.

Although it has happened yet, When a trough gets to the Caribbean that would be where we could see some kind of development, If however shear was to be favorable...Not saying anything would just saying the Caribbean is indeed a main early-development area.

2008's version of Andrea?

Draken will you please remove your image

281. weatherfromFlorida 8:44 PM GMT on April 22, 2008
2008's version of Andrea?

Possibly...

Lots of dry air being entrained into the big low off Georgia/Carolinas. The one low NE of
Bermuda doesn't have much dry air effecting it but its over waters that are quite cool.

If it were June and these lows were out there, there would be a much better chance for development.

looking back on last year, i would have to say this situation with the low to the NNE of Florida looks a lot like Andrea. Dry air, SST's are good enough, ULL devolping into a sub-tropical system.
20-30kt shear is minute compared to what Barry went through.

282. Thundercloud01221991 8:46 PM GMT on April 22, 2008
Draken will you please remove your image

I'm not able to and its probably better for you to use a different browser such as fire fox in this thread.

287. Drakoen 12:59 PM AKDT on April 22, 2008 Hide this comment.
282. Thundercloud01221991 8:46 PM GMT on April 22, 2008
Draken will you please remove your image

I'm not able to and its probably better for you to use a different browser such as fire fox in this thread.

You can by modifying comment and deleting the image code. It isn't that bad of an image......might be a hassle for dial-up users I dunno....I just try to link most everything except the imageshack thumbnails which are really small.

ya firefox works best on the blog

288. Levi32 9:03 PM GMT on April 22, 2008
287. Drakoen 12:59 PM AKDT on April 22, 2008 Hide this comment.
282. Thundercloud01221991 8:46 PM GMT on April 22, 2008
Draken will you please remove your image

I'm not able to and its probably better for you to use a different browser such as fire fox in this thread.

You can by modifying comment and deleting the image code. It isn't that bad of an image......might be a hassle for dial-up users I dunno....I just try to link most everything except the imageshack thumbnails which are really small.

Modify option doesn't work for me.

Whats wrong with Drak's image?

287. Drakoen 8:59 PM GMT on April 22, 2008
282. Thundercloud01221991 8:46 PM GMT on April 22, 2008
Draken will you please remove your image

I'm not able to and its probably better for you to use a different browser such as fire fox in this thread.


I am unable to because I am at work

292. Thundercloud01221991 9:15 PM GMT on April 22, 2008

Draken will you please remove your image



what is the problem?

his image stretches the blog

Good afternoon,

the area nearest to the coast should be monitor for signs of development becuz enviromental conditions have somewhat improve over the past 24 hrs. Shear values have drop 30 knots and the system sits over the Gulf stream. Both the CMC and GFS indentifies this system but does not keep it after 24-48 hrs.

the area further southeast has a bit more convection going for it but its future is uncertain. The short-wave trough that accompanies the first low near the East Coast is expected to dig towards the southeast and lift this feature towards the northeast, while merging with another low. During this porcess, there are indicators that the system will aquire sufficient tropical characteristics.

Good evening all. Great pictures there Dr. Masters. They truly do show the beauty of the atmosphere.

I see many people continue to debate about whether or not any of the three lows out there will develop. Well, here is what I have to say. You cannot discount possible subtropical development, but there are very few signs that would point towards such development taking place. Time will have to tell the story.

Had a question for you all. How does a tropical cyclone end up with this satellite presentation where it appears to become two buttocks? Just out of curiosity.


On May 1st, I will finally have my 2008 Hurricane Season Predictions published with full explanations (of course in laymen's terms so all can understand) and the numbers so many people stupidly focus on.

Have a nice evening all and I hope to talk with you again sometime this evening. I can't wait to read what Dr. Masters will have to report on the latest La Nina conditions so that we can all finally stop bickering over it.

Had a question for you all. How does a tropical cyclone end up with this satellite presentation where it appears to become two buttocks? Just out of curiosity.

Surface divergence which can be associated with dry air or shear.

296. cchsweatherman 9:23 PM GMT on April 22, 2008
Had a question for you all. How does a tropical cyclone end up with this satellite presentation where it appears to become two buttocks?



Is this a riddle?

the area further southeast has a bit more convection going for it but its future is uncertain. The short-wave trough that accompanies the first low near the East Coast is expected to dig towards the southeast and lift this feature towards the northeast, while merging with another low. During this porcess, there are no indicators that the system will aquire sufficient tropical characteristics.

from what the pics show that drak posted the sst's around cuba are starting to heat up

Had a question for you all. How does a tropical cyclone end up with this satellite presentation where it appears to become two buttocks? Just out of curiosity.

dry air entrainment and sinking air as Drak pointed out