Second warmest March on record; will La Niña be gone by hurricane season?
March 2008 was the 2nd warmest March for the the globe on record, according to statistics released by the National Climatic Data Center. Over the Northern Hemisphere, and over all of the globe's land areas, March 2008 was the warmest March in the 128-year global record. Only the presence of a moderately strong La Niña event that cooled ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific prevented March 2008 from surpassing March 2002 as the warmest March on record. March broke a string of three straight months when the globe did not record a top ten warmest month ever. Between February 2006 and November 2007, the globe set top ten monthly warm temperature records for 22 straight months.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average (the anomaly) for March of 2008, the second warmest March on record for the globe. While the U.S. recorded slightly below average temperatures, much of Asia and Europe saw remarkably warm temperatures. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.
How much cooling did La Niña give to the globe in March?
La Niña is a periodic cooling of the Equatorial waters of the Eastern Pacific that occurs every 3-7 years. The cooling is due to a natural cycle of anomalous winds from the east that act to push surface waters away from the coast of South America, allowing cold water from deep in the ocean to rise to the surface to replace the surface waters blown to the west. These cool waters often cause a noticeable drop in global temperatures. Conversely, when the opposite phenomena occurs--an El Niño event, which brings anomalously warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) to the Equatorial Eastern Pacific, enough heat is added to the atmosphere that global temperatures warm significantly. According to Trenberth et al. (2002), a typical El Niño event increases global temperatures by about 0.1°C. Exceptional El Niño events, such as occurred in 1997-1998 and 1982-1983, increase global temperatures by up to 0.2°C. El Niño events heat the atmosphere by causing changes in cloudiness and atmospheric circulation, and through direct radiation of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere. There is a lag of 3-6 months between the time an El Niño event occurs and the time the atmosphere heats in response. Similarly, when a La Niña event occurs, heat is drawn out of the atmosphere and the oceans are recharged with heat. Global temperatures cool, again with a lag of 3-6 months. The correlation between global temperature anomalies and El Niño/La Niña temperature anomalies can be plainly seen in Figure 2. Note that the correlation is not perfect--there are some El Niño/La Niña events that do not affect the global temperature much. For example, global temperatures did not cool much during the strong 1988-1989 La Niña event. Therefore, it is a good bet--but not certain one--that had we not had a strong La Niña event this winter, March 2008 would have been the warmest March on record, since it missed the record by only 0.04°C.
Figure 2. Comparison of temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean bounded by a box between 5°S, 5°N, 120°W, and 180°W (the Niño 3.4 region) and global temperatures for 1950-1998. Means for 1950-1976 and 1977-1998 (horizontal lines) are shown separately to highlight a climate shift that occurred in 1976/1977. The reasons for this shift are unknown. Note that when an El Niño event occurs, the globe tends to warm by about 0.1°C, and when a La Niña event occurs, the globe tends to cool. Image credit: American Geophysical Union's Journal of Geophysical Research.
Warmest month ever stats
It is interesting to compare what the phase of El Niño/La Niña was during each of the 12 record warmest months the globe has recorded. If we adjust for the 3-6 month lag between an El Niño/La Niña event and the monthly global temperature records, it turns out that nine of the twelve monthly records were set when an El Niño event occurred during the 3-6 month period prior to the record. Considering that climatologically El Niño conditions are present only about 25% of the time, El Niño has a major impact on when record global warmth will occur. The warmest year on record, 1998, occurred during the strongest El Niño of the past century. The table below compares the 12 monthly global temperature records with the temperature in the Niño 3.4 region (a 3-month average centered four months before the record was set). El Niño events, which occur when the Niño 3.4 index is greater than 0.4°C, are marked with an "E".
Record......Niño 3.4 index
-----------------------------
Jan 2007 +0.7 E
Feb 1998 +1.7 E
Mar 2002 -0.1
Apr 1998 +2.5 E
May 1998 +2.3 E
Jun 2005 +0.5 E
Jul 1998 +1.4 E
Aug 1998 +1.1 E
Sep 2005 +0.5 E
Oct 2003 +0.0
Nov 2004 +0.7 E
Dec 2003 +0.4
Figure 3. A La Niña event exists when ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean bounded by a box between 5°S, 5°N, 120°W, and 180°W (the Niño 3.4 region) are cooler than 0.4°C below average (based on means from 1971-2000). La Niña events between 0.5°C and 0.9°C are referred to as weak, 1.0°C and 1.4°C are moderate, and 1.5°C or cooler, strong. The winter of 2007-2008 saw strong La Niña conditions, but this has weakened to a moderate event in March. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.
An El Niño by hurricane season?
Presence of El Niño conditions usually causes enhanced levels of wind shear over the Atlantic, reducing hurricane activity, so it would be nice to see an El Niño this Fall. The strong La Niña event we had over the past winter has weakened considerably in the past two months, and is now classified as a moderate event, according to the latest El Niño discussion issued by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. There is some hope that an El Niño will develop by hurricane season. Two of the long-range computer models are now calling for an El Niño to develop by hurricane season (Figure 4), and none of them were calling for El Niño last month. However, there is probably not time for a full-fledged El Niño event to develop, and it is expected that we will have weak La Niña or neutral conditions this hurricane season. Since reliable El Niño records began in 1950, there has never been a switch over to El Niño by hurricane season from a La Niña as strong as the one we have now. Columbia University's International Research Institute is predicting that neutral El Niño conditions are most likely for the coming hurricane season (57% chance), with a 20% chance of an El Niño, and 23% chance of a La Niña. This is pretty much what climatology says--on average, we experience El Niño conditions 25% of the time and La Niña conditions 25% of the time.
Figure 4. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in April. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.
References
Trenberth, K. E., J. M. Caron, D. P. Stepaniak, and S. Worley, >Evolution of El Niño, Southern Oscillation and global atmospheric surface temperatures", J. Geophys. Res., 107(D8), 4065, doi:10.1029/2000JD000298, 2002.
I'll be in Orlando next week for the American Meteorological Society's bi-annual hurricane conference, and plan to make some quick posts during the week to update everyone on the latest hurricane research. I may make one more post before then.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Here we are. The last Neutral phase kicked us all in the head.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
608 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008
TXC363-232345-
/O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-080423T2345Z/
PALO PINTO TX-
608 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY...
AT 608 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR MINGUS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL SOUTHERN PALO PINTO COUNTY AT 620 PM CDT
RURAL CENTRAL PALO PINTO COUNTY AT 630 PM CDT
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
LAT...LON 3281 9856 3281 9841 3282 9828 3283 9806
3251 9806 3252 9856
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 204DEG 18KT 3254 9841
Guys, if you want a fairly decent glimpse as to what 2008 may hold, look at the jet stream pattern come mid May. Look at troughiness, or lack thereof. Also, look at the strength of the A/B High. Strength is a larger player than position. A strong A/B High will raise surface pressures and create a stronger flow, thus increasing wind shear.
Not looking at a strong area of high pressure but one that could be centralized or westerly fix like 2004.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008
TXC429-232330-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-080423T2330Z/
STEPHENS TX-
613 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR STEPHENS
COUNTY...
AT 613 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING ONE OR
MORE TORNADOS. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BRECKENRIDGE...MOVING EAST AT 26 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES, HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
Hey Drak!!!! How are ya buddy? Long time no chat my friend!
I'm pretty good. I have been posting lately... I haven't seen you around though. How are you?
Another Breckenridge twister!!!!
God help them!
Drak- We had a westerly fixed A/B High last year, but it was also parked further S and W than 2004. Hence the biggies being driven due W into MX.
There is a difference between a strong area of high pressure fix westerly and a weaker area of high pressure fixed westerly. The result from a weaker is a more WNW path in the MDR region as opposed to a straight westerly like we saw in 2007.
*rolleyes* Are you that skeptical?!
Just griping about the phase of the PDO that we're stuck with for at least 15 more years...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
628 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
PALO PINTO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EASTERN STEPHENS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT
* AT 628 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POSSUM
KINGDOM STATE PARK...TO 16 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRECKENRIDGE AND
WERE MOVING EAST AT 26 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR GORDON.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
POSSUM KINGDOM STATE PARK BY 645 PM
GORDON BY 700 PM
MINERAL WELLS AND GRAFORD BY 730 PM
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
641 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL ERATH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
* UNTIL 715 PM CDT
* AT 641 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO OVER EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL ERATH COUNTY..MOVING
EAST AT 23 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL NORTHERN ERATH COUNTY AT 700 PM CDT
RURAL SOUTHEASTERN PALO PINTO COUNTY AT 700 PM CDT
RURAL NORTHEASTERN ERATH COUNTY AT 710 PM CDT
TAKE COVER IN A BASEMENT...OR ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME IN AN
INTERIOR CLOSET OR BATHROOM. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS FOR COVER.
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL HOWARD COUNTY...
AT 642 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND STORM
SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LUTHER...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTH OF BIG
SPRING...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE TORNADO INCLUDE...CENTRAL HOWARD
COUNTY.
THE TORNADO WILL LIKELY CROSS FM 669 NORTH OF BIG SPRING BETWEEN
FAIRVIEW AND LUTHER.
I am going to do something that even my better judgment says... I am going ahead and planning my summer as if there will be NO storms at all.. I am so tired since 1995 and especally since 2004 of not wanting to plan any backyard event because of the possibility of bad weather. I mean Andrew back in 1992, messed up my daughter's 13th birthday party in the back yard...we had to delay for 3 weeks...not so much because of our damage but because of the sensitivity of her friends who did have damage.
These storms seem to only approach when you have a major event planned.
http://www.weather.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=tx&prodtype=warnings
Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90 day
Av.SOI Av.SOI
----------------------------------------------------------------
25-Mar-2008 1010.80 1008.70 -9.60 13.00 15.85
26-Mar-2008 1012.84 1007.50 5.80 12.20 15.73
27-Mar-2008 1014.65 1007.40 15.00 11.71 15.65
28-Mar-2008 1015.28 1009.00 10.30 11.49 15.40
29-Mar-2008 1013.91 1009.50 1.40 10.97 14.99
30-Mar-2008 1012.65 1009.20 -3.10 10.40 14.61
31-Mar-2008 1014.12 1009.10 4.30 10.21 14.40
1-Apr-2008 1013.94 1009.45 15.10 10.55 14.22
2-Apr-2008 1013.99 1010.00 11.50 10.44 13.92
3-Apr-2008 1014.54 1009.80 16.90 10.49 13.65
4-Apr-2008 1014.78 1009.50 20.80 10.78 13.42
5-Apr-2008 1015.89 1010.45 21.90 11.23 13.38
6-Apr-2008 1013.90 1011.85 -2.40 10.81 13.27
7-Apr-2008 1011.31 1010.80 -13.50 9.87 13.02
8-Apr-2008 1010.89 1010.25 -12.60 8.79 12.73
9-Apr-2008 1011.60 1009.80 -4.20 8.12 12.53
10-Apr-2008 1012.98 1009.25 9.60 7.88 12.41
11-Apr-2008 1013.72 1009.55 12.80 7.77 12.39
12-Apr-2008 1013.73 1009.15 15.70 7.84 12.41
13-Apr-2008 1012.30 1008.85 7.60 7.72 12.37
14-Apr-2008 1011.71 1008.65 4.80 7.67 12.38
15-Apr-2008 1011.05 1009.25 -4.20 7.14 12.43
16-Apr-2008 1011.05 1009.20 -3.90 6.52 12.48
17-Apr-2008 1010.04 1008.95 -9.30 5.68 12.32
18-Apr-2008 1010.80 1008.70 -2.00 5.01 12.23
19-Apr-2008 1012.44 1008.80 9.00 4.69 12.28
20-Apr-2008 1012.69 1008.60 12.20 4.63 12.41
21-Apr-2008 1012.23 1008.40 10.30 4.70 12.51
22-Apr-2008 1013.74 1009.15 15.80 5.02 12.70
23-Apr-2008 1015.16 1009.60 22.80 5.98 12.91
Yes, 2005 was a neutral season, Like this year will likely be. However that does not mean in anyway, shape or form that this year will be a 2005, lol.
There was a huge difference in the weaker western oriented ridge of 04 and last seasons "super" ridge. All the 04 storms recurved northward into Florida. Last seasons ridge was so strong and so far west it caused S.E drought and drew dry mid west air into tropics on it's back side. That ridge pushed every thing toward the southwest in the tropics and squashed several systems that would have developed in a normal season. I am becoming more and more worried about a repeat of 04 this season.
Nash, the last weak Nino phase kicked us in the head too. It is likely I believe that 08 will be transitioning time into strong Nino of 09. That would be much like weak nino of 04 (yuk).
Action: | Ignore User
I have a hard time believing "El Nino" conditions will form at ALL this season, At the least maybe towards the end, I doubt it though.
I believe starting now, SST's and TCHP is going to start to rise very quickly, Between April 20th and April 21's the TCHP levels raised and good bit, Thats a dramatic change.
Next update expected by 30th April 2008 (two weeks after this update).
In the latest survey (late Mar) of six international dynamic computer models, only one of the six models surveyed predicts cool conditions, consistent with a La Niña event, to continue until at least the end of the southern autumn in the eastern Pacific. Of the five that predict beyond four months, all predict the neutral conditions to continue through August to October 2008. Recent forecasts from the POAMA model, run daily at the Bureau of Meteorology, predict neutral conditions to remain in the eastern Pacific through to October and for conditions in the central Pacific to decay to neutral over the next couple of months.
THE NEXT UPDATE OF THE DETAILED SECTION ABOVE IS EXPECTED BY 30TH APRIL
This is the latest fron the Austrailian Bureau of Meteorology
There might be a tropical wave over Central Africa... I'll post what I found shortly...
Yeah, I see what your talking about, If it's not a wave it deff. Seems to have some typical charactistics of a wave.
Where is that wave then.
The axis is noted from 13E extending from 13N to 5N north over Central Africa.
The 925hPa Theta and Relative vorticity contoured show vorticity centers at the poleward end and the southern end of the axis. The area of convection is lacking a significant area of potential vorticity along the axis however a inverted trough signature can be noted at 700hPa. Also higher Theta-e values are seen ahead of the axis. The K-index and moisture flux convergence show high values of dynamic forcing and instability.
The axis is noted from 13E extending from 13N to 5N north over Central Africa.
Based on conditions ahead of it and in it's future whats your thoughts?
Somebody posted about a possible ice age being touted in a Fox News article. I have to admit some amazement at the brazen hysteria creation techniques used by so-called news reporters on the issue of long-term global trends. I seriously doubt we will go from global cooling to warming to cooling in a few months or years as some of these reporters seem to imply. Even in instances where changes in weather patterns seem confined to only one part of the globe, those changes seem to have taken place over periods ranging from five decdes to a century. Regardless of their stance on MMGW, I think everyone has to admit that this current warming trend has been happening for at least 50 years. It didn't start in 2000 or even 1990 . .. .
BTW, what's the latest on our Indian ocean cyclones?
97. Drakoen 1:04 AM GMT on April 24, 2008
The 925hPa Theta and Relative vorticity contoured show vorticity centers at the poleward end and the southern end of the axis. The area of convection is lacking a significant area of potential vorticity along the axis however a inverted trough signature can be noted at 700hPa. Also higher Theta-e values are seen ahead of the axis. The K-index and moisture flux convergence show high values of dynamic forcing and instability.
The axis is noted from 13E extending from 13N to 5N north over Central Africa.
Based on conditions ahead of it and in it's future whats your thoughts?
The axis is centered under an upper level anticyclone providing good upper level divergence. You should notice the hook signature of the convection. I think the trough needs higher PV values to really be considered a tropical wave. Seeing as though we are still in april and the upper level conditions around the African coast are unfavorable with a persistent upper level trough I don't expect much. Climatology favors the dissipation of these type of features..
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