May 2008: month of the natural disaster
We live on a dangerous planet. In the wake of Cyclone Nargis, one of the deadliest tropical cyclones of all time, China's worst earthquake in 32 years has struck just 12 days later. Rarely in recorded history have twin natural disasters claiming 10,000 or more lives struck so close to each other in time. The last such occurrence I could find was in China in 1931. That summer, the world's deadliest natural disaster of all time--the Yellow River Flood of 1931--killed between one and four million people. On August 10 of the same summer, a magnitude 8.0 earthquake killed 10,000 people near Fuyun, China. Another notable twin disaster occurred on September 1, 1923 when the Great Kanto earthquake hit Japan. Winds from a passing typhoon fanned fires that sprang up after the quake, and the resulting fire storm engulfed Tokyo, killing over 100,000 people. Still, with a major volcanic eruption in Chile and an unusually severe tornado season pounding the U.S. with killer tornadoes, May 2008 will long be remembered as one of the worst months for natural disasters in world history.
Cyclone Nargis update
A tragedy of truly epic proportions continues to unfold in Myanmar in the wake of Cyclone Nargis. The United Nations now unofficially estimates that the death toll from the storm is at least 100,000, with up to 220,000 people missing. It is now 12 days since the cyclone struck, and aid efforts are only about 10-20% of what is needed to bring life-saving water, food, and medicine to the 1.5 million people affected by the storm. The death toll will now start to rise sharply, as the failure to provide adequate relief within ten days greatly increases the risk of disease and death in survivors of a cyclone. The indifference of Myanmar's leaders to the plight of its suffering people could make the death toll from Nargis the second highest in history, next to the 500,000 people killed in Bangladesh's Great Bhola Cyclone of 1970. Cyclone Nargis' unofficial death toll of 100,000 currently ranks the storm as the 10th deadliest in world history.
Figure 1. Topography of Myanmar, with track of Cyclone Nargis superimposed. Image credit: NASA.
Was the population warned?
Many of you have expressed amazement that so many could die from a tropical cyclone in this day and age of satellites and modern communications. Why did it happen? I believe there are two main reasons: the historical lack of tropical cyclones that have hit Burma's Irrawaddy delta, and the unwillingness of Myanmar's leaders to provide adequate warnings for fear of jeopardizing their May 10 referendum to consolidate their power.
According to irrawaddy.com:
Appearances on Burma's state television by the country's director general of the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Tun Lwin, always attract a large following.
Viewers like his style and informative approach to weather reporting. But now those same viewers are asking: "Why did he fail to warn us of the approach of Cyclone Nargis?"
According to well-informed sources close to his department, Burma's leading meteorologist passed those warnings on to the government in Naypyidaw, together with information about the cyclone's strength, expected course, and timing.
Tun Lwin reportedly suggested the warning should be carried by state media, but sources said he was told by his bosses in the capital: "Don't create public panic ahead of the referendum."
Warnings of the approaching cyclone were finally published in the official press, but they were buried amid news of the approaching constitutional referendum.
I've been sent an image of the warning for Cyclone Nargis as it appeared on May 2 in one of Myanmar's main newspapers, "The New Light of Myanmar". The warnings for Nargis on the day it made landfall as a major cyclone were buried on page 15 of the obituaries and miscellaneous section of the newspaper.
Figuring into the junta's logic for ignoring the approaching cyclone was the history of tropical cyclone strikes on the country. Since reliable records began in 1970, there have been only six hurricane-strength tropical cyclones to hit Myanmar. See the paper, "Simulation of Storm Surges Along Myanmar Coast Using a Location Specific Numerical Model" (Jain et al., Natural Hazards 39, 1, September 2006) for more information. The storms are:
1975 Pathein cyclone, Cat 1 (75 knots), hit just north of Irrawaddy Delta. An estimated 1.2 meter storm surge occurred. This storm did inundate the Irrawaddy delta, and 187 people died.
1982 Gwa cyclone, Cat 4 (120 knots), hit Gwa, north of Irrawaddy delta. An estimated 4 meter storm surge occurred.
1992 Sandoway cyclone, Cat 1 (65 knots), hit Sandoway, farther north than Gwa. An estimated 1.2 meter storm surge occurred.
1994 Sittwe cyclone, Cat 4 (125 knots), hit Sandoway/Sittwe. An estimated 1.2 meter storm surge occurred.
Mala of 2006 was a Cat 4, (115 knots) and also hit north of the Irrawaddy delta. No storm surge estimate available.
Nargis of 2008.
In the pre-1970 years, I could find only one mention of a hurricane-force storm hitting the country, a Cat 1 cyclone in 1936 that killed 36 people. A significant cyclone hitting the Irrawaddy delta causing thousands of deaths would very likely have been recorded, had this happened any time in the past 300 years. Such events were recorded in both India and Bangladesh during that period. Nargis appears to have been the only major tropical cyclone to hit the Irrawaddy River delta in recorded history, and may be a once-in-500-year event.
Comments from Chris Burt
I've been in regular communication about this disaster with Chris Burt, author of the excellent book Extreme Weather. He has been visiting Myanmar every year for 30 years, and has much insight on the situation there:
Anecdotally, I can say in all the time I've spent in Burma I have never heard anyone talk about or worry about tropical storms, it simply is not in their consciousness. This is why people really didn't heed the warnings. People were warned at least 48 hours in advance--I got an email from a friend two days before the storm telling me about the warnings in Rangoon.
More severe weather today
The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of eastern Texas and surrounding states under their "Slight Risk" category for severe weather today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow today's severe weather. A slight risk of severe weather is also expected Thursday over the deep south, from eastern Texas to Alabama.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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And, what's this 9/10's stuff they still do?
And, another piece of news - I read where many pumps will not support a price above $3.99! So, I don't know how, or how fast they'll deal with that issue, but in some cases, surely, it'll mean prices won't go higher than that! That has to slow the calculated (pardon the pun) "increase process" down somewhat, hopefully!
$3.85
I am. No problems.
China quake now says 25,000 more missing!
Anyone else hear about that tropical wave by Myanmar that may hit it as a Tropical Cyclone?
I don't see this on the site anywhere? Is there another one?
A "significant" tropical cyclone is expected to form in the next 24 hours and sweep across Myanmar's largest city Yangon and into the Irrawaddy delta area -- the region worst affected -- according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Aid agencies estimate that there are around 2 million people who survived Cyclone Nargis on May 3, many of whom are still homeless, and the groups have been able to reach only 270,000 of them so far, The Associated Press reported Wednesday.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008 9:18:06 AM
Brevard Fire Press Releases
Here is where the system is and the forecasted track.
My Dad lives in Palm Bay and I am getting updates from him on the fires...he says it is a nightmare..but so far his house is safe. I hope they catch this arsonist.
Orca Systems,
Here is where the system is and the forecasted track.
Thank you :)
CCH, your tropical update page won't load and it locks up my browser? (Firefox)
Well, on that page, I have a Java loop of the Tropical Atlantic satellite. It takes about a minute to load, so give it some time. If not, you may have to use IE to get to the page.
Jimmy Carter to visit 9th Ward today
by Valerie Faciane, The Times-Picayune
Wednesday May 14, 2008, 8:32 AM Link
Bill Starling / The Associate PressFormer President Jimmy Carter takes a tour Tuesday with construction manager C. Brian Stanley for Habitat for Humanity project in Mobile. The former president and first lady were there as part of the 25th annual Habitat for Humanity Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter Work Project. The Carters will be on the Gulf Coast through May 16 joining volunteers to help construct and rehabilitate houses in Mobile, Biloxi, Pascagoula, and Bay St. Louis, as well as New Orleans and Covington.
Former President Jimmy Carter and his wife Rosalynn are in New Orleans today to join more than 1,000 volunteers who are working to build new homes in the Upper 9th Ward as part of a work project that bears their name.
Since 1984, the Carters have led thousands of volunteers in building Habitat homes for the needy around the globe.
The Carters will join Habitat for Humanity CEO Jonathan Reckford and New Orleans area CEO Jim Pete at 9 a.m. at 3155 Law St., near the corner of Feliciana Street. They will address reporters at 9:15 a.m. and start work at 10:30 a.m.
The New Orleans Habitat for Humanity kicked off a week of building Sunday that focuses on new construction projects in the Upper 9th Ward. Volunteers will completely build seven homes, frame 25 others and put the final touches on 25 more. About 1,000 volunteers have signed on to participate.
Whenever I write my forecasts, or in this case, predictions, I look at all possible outcomes and do in-depth analysis before publishing them. I wouldn't make predictions like that without doing proper research and I wouldn't withhold any information. I try to tell people the truth regarding the weather (although we all know there is no real truth when dealing with weather).
Hurricane Preparedness WeekLink
History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster. Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2008 will be held May 25th through May 31st.
The goal of this Hurricane Preparedness Web site is to inform the public about the hurricane hazards and provide knowledge which can be used to take ACTION. This information can be used to save lives at work, home, while on the road, or on the water.
All others are just Hobbyists guess's at best.
Storm Names
International Committee Selects Replacement Names for 2013 List
May 13, 2008
Hurricane Felix, a Category 5 storm, bears down on Central America.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
The names Dean, Felix, and Noel, three of the most devastating storms of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, were retired by members of the 30th Session of the World Meteorological Organization's Regional Association IV Hurricane Committee during its annual meeting in Orlando, Fla.
Members of the committee, which includes representatives from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, can remove names associated with storms that cause significant loss of life and property. These names will not be used again because of the wide spread destruction caused by these storms.
The committee issues a list of potential names for tropical cyclones every six years and for 2013, Dean, Felix, and Noel have been replaced with Dorian, Fernand, and Nestor. Since tropical cyclones were first named in 1953, 70 names have been retired, the first two being Carol and Hazel in 1954.
Details of the newly retired 2007 named storms are shown below:
Hurricane Dean was a Category 5 storm as it hit the Mexican coast.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
Dean passed between St. Lucia and Martinique on Aug. 17 on a remarkably constant heading across the Caribbean Sea, passing just south of Jamaica with Category 4 winds of 145 mph. Over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Dean reached Category 5 strength of 165 mph just before landfall on Aug. 21 near Costa Maya on the Yucatan Peninsula. It weakened over land but emerged into the Bay of Campeche, strengthening to Category 2 status just before landfall the next day south of Tuxpan, Mexico. Dean is directly responsible for 32 deaths across the Caribbean, with the largest tolls in Mexico and Haiti.
Felix was the second hurricane of the season to make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane, a feat never seen before in records dating back to 1851. Felix became a hurricane on Sept. 1 over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. It rapidly intensified, and Felix became a Category 5 hurricane about 400 miles southeast of Jamaica. The storm weakened to Category 3 but re-intensified to Category 5 status just before landfall on Sept. 4 at Punta Gorda, Nicaragua. Felix was responsible for 130 deaths in Nicaragua and Honduras, causing major damage in northeastern Nicaragua and inland flooding over portions of Central America.
Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Noel on November 1, 2007.
High resolution (Credit: NOAA)
Noel was a slow-moving tropical storm from Oct. 25 to Oct. 31, while over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, eastern Cuba and the lower Bahamas before reaching Category 1 hurricane strength on Nov. 1 in the northwestern Bahamas. As it accelerated northeast over the western Atlantic waters near Nantucket Island, Mass., it was no longer classified as a tropical system but packed 75 mph winds as it came ashore near Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. Noel was responsible for at least 160 deaths across the Caribbean and Bahamas. The system produced hurricane force winds over portions of the northeast U.S. and Canada, producing widespread power outages. It also produced significant coastal flooding and wave action that washed out coastal roads in portions of Nova Scotia.
Names for the upcoming 2008 Atlantic season, which begins June 1, include Arthur, Bertha, Christobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine, Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources. Through the emerging Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), NOAA is working with its federal partners, more than 70 countries and the European Commission to develop a global monitoring network that is as integrated as the planet it observes, predicts and protects.
LOL
Just getting ready for the start of the season and wanted to say hi!
Anyways, anyone wanna speculate on chances of Florida being affected this year?
From email:
-------- Original Message --------
Model Evaluation Participants,
Due to unacceptable synoptic behavior of the GFS during the final
evaluation period, EMC is withdrawing this implementation.
I'd like to thank everyone for their participation in this evaluation.
Your efforts help to ensure that NCEP will continue to provide the
best quality numerical guidance to the meteorological community.
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At 12:00 UTC, Tropical Depression [1000 hPa] located near 18.9N 122.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported moving north slowly.
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 20.7N 124.6E - 35 knots [CAT 1]
No matter if a threat develops or it dosent.
Calamity can come on a given day,specially in S Fla, fires are a good example. One has to have a evact kit if one has to bug out in a hurry.Focus on being prepared... not on "if".
its slow here..almost nothing. Some of my guys I let go..others are doing landscaping.
I bought toys with Wilma's cash, now its getting hard and expensive to maintain them.
2 years without a hit is bad. this year looks promising , but thats what they said for '07 too
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
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The Active Low Pressure Area west of Southern Luzon is now a Tropical Depression and was named "COSME".
At 5:00 pm PST, Tropical Depression Cosme located near 12.4ºN, 117.4ºE or 400 kms West Southwest of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.
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This is for 95W west of the Philippines
Viewing: 351 - 401
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