May 2008: month of the natural disaster
We live on a dangerous planet. In the wake of Cyclone Nargis, one of the deadliest tropical cyclones of all time, China's worst earthquake in 32 years has struck just 12 days later. Rarely in recorded history have twin natural disasters claiming 10,000 or more lives struck so close to each other in time. The last such occurrence I could find was in China in 1931. That summer, the world's deadliest natural disaster of all time--the Yellow River Flood of 1931--killed between one and four million people. On August 10 of the same summer, a magnitude 8.0 earthquake killed 10,000 people near Fuyun, China. Another notable twin disaster occurred on September 1, 1923 when the Great Kanto earthquake hit Japan. Winds from a passing typhoon fanned fires that sprang up after the quake, and the resulting fire storm engulfed Tokyo, killing over 100,000 people. Still, with a major volcanic eruption in Chile and an unusually severe tornado season pounding the U.S. with killer tornadoes, May 2008 will long be remembered as one of the worst months for natural disasters in world history.
Cyclone Nargis update
A tragedy of truly epic proportions continues to unfold in Myanmar in the wake of Cyclone Nargis. The United Nations now unofficially estimates that the death toll from the storm is at least 100,000, with up to 220,000 people missing. It is now 12 days since the cyclone struck, and aid efforts are only about 10-20% of what is needed to bring life-saving water, food, and medicine to the 1.5 million people affected by the storm. The death toll will now start to rise sharply, as the failure to provide adequate relief within ten days greatly increases the risk of disease and death in survivors of a cyclone. The indifference of Myanmar's leaders to the plight of its suffering people could make the death toll from Nargis the second highest in history, next to the 500,000 people killed in Bangladesh's Great Bhola Cyclone of 1970. Cyclone Nargis' unofficial death toll of 100,000 currently ranks the storm as the 10th deadliest in world history.
Figure 1. Topography of Myanmar, with track of Cyclone Nargis superimposed. Image credit: NASA.
Was the population warned?
Many of you have expressed amazement that so many could die from a tropical cyclone in this day and age of satellites and modern communications. Why did it happen? I believe there are two main reasons: the historical lack of tropical cyclones that have hit Burma's Irrawaddy delta, and the unwillingness of Myanmar's leaders to provide adequate warnings for fear of jeopardizing their May 10 referendum to consolidate their power.
According to irrawaddy.com:
Appearances on Burma's state television by the country's director general of the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Tun Lwin, always attract a large following.
Viewers like his style and informative approach to weather reporting. But now those same viewers are asking: "Why did he fail to warn us of the approach of Cyclone Nargis?"
According to well-informed sources close to his department, Burma's leading meteorologist passed those warnings on to the government in Naypyidaw, together with information about the cyclone's strength, expected course, and timing.
Tun Lwin reportedly suggested the warning should be carried by state media, but sources said he was told by his bosses in the capital: "Don't create public panic ahead of the referendum."
Warnings of the approaching cyclone were finally published in the official press, but they were buried amid news of the approaching constitutional referendum.
I've been sent an image of the warning for Cyclone Nargis as it appeared on May 2 in one of Myanmar's main newspapers, "The New Light of Myanmar". The warnings for Nargis on the day it made landfall as a major cyclone were buried on page 15 of the obituaries and miscellaneous section of the newspaper.
Figuring into the junta's logic for ignoring the approaching cyclone was the history of tropical cyclone strikes on the country. Since reliable records began in 1970, there have been only six hurricane-strength tropical cyclones to hit Myanmar. See the paper, "Simulation of Storm Surges Along Myanmar Coast Using a Location Specific Numerical Model" (Jain et al., Natural Hazards 39, 1, September 2006) for more information. The storms are:
1975 Pathein cyclone, Cat 1 (75 knots), hit just north of Irrawaddy Delta. An estimated 1.2 meter storm surge occurred. This storm did inundate the Irrawaddy delta, and 187 people died.
1982 Gwa cyclone, Cat 4 (120 knots), hit Gwa, north of Irrawaddy delta. An estimated 4 meter storm surge occurred.
1992 Sandoway cyclone, Cat 1 (65 knots), hit Sandoway, farther north than Gwa. An estimated 1.2 meter storm surge occurred.
1994 Sittwe cyclone, Cat 4 (125 knots), hit Sandoway/Sittwe. An estimated 1.2 meter storm surge occurred.
Mala of 2006 was a Cat 4, (115 knots) and also hit north of the Irrawaddy delta. No storm surge estimate available.
Nargis of 2008.
In the pre-1970 years, I could find only one mention of a hurricane-force storm hitting the country, a Cat 1 cyclone in 1936 that killed 36 people. A significant cyclone hitting the Irrawaddy delta causing thousands of deaths would very likely have been recorded, had this happened any time in the past 300 years. Such events were recorded in both India and Bangladesh during that period. Nargis appears to have been the only major tropical cyclone to hit the Irrawaddy River delta in recorded history, and may be a once-in-500-year event.
Comments from Chris Burt
I've been in regular communication about this disaster with Chris Burt, author of the excellent book Extreme Weather. He has been visiting Myanmar every year for 30 years, and has much insight on the situation there:
Anecdotally, I can say in all the time I've spent in Burma I have never heard anyone talk about or worry about tropical storms, it simply is not in their consciousness. This is why people really didn't heed the warnings. People were warned at least 48 hours in advance--I got an email from a friend two days before the storm telling me about the warnings in Rangoon.
More severe weather today
The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of eastern Texas and surrounding states under their "Slight Risk" category for severe weather today. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow today's severe weather. A slight risk of severe weather is also expected Thursday over the deep south, from eastern Texas to Alabama.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
===========================
The Active Low Pressure Area west of Southern Luzon is now a Tropical Depression and was named "COSME".
At 5:00 pm PST, Tropical Depression Cosme located near 12.4ºN, 117.4ºE or 400 kms West Southwest of Calapan, Oriental Mindoro has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.
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This is for 95W west of the Philippines
Station manager didn't want to hear about it and blew me off. Regional management, however, got real excited and took care of my extra $10 via overnight FedEx with a $50 gas card. On the phone they were pissed that the station manager wouldn't investigate at all. Someone with a 30 gallon tank could pay an extra $40 to fill up...not something they will forgive or forget...losing customers forever.
If the pump is running very slow...leave. The calibration of the flow meter will be off too.
Could you provide me with the links that you use to analyze whether or not a tropical wave has formed? I'm having a hard time analyzing the convection that came off Africa. I would like to hear what you have to say regarding this activity off and over Africa. Seems like the ITCZ has become much more active and continues to move further northward, thus lending to a possible early start to the Cape Verde season. And Patrap, both 456 and I know when a typical Cape Verde season starts, but we are making observations that point to our conclusions.
Just another view..LOL
If that happens again,Id call the lil number on the pump.The state regulates those pumps here in La. and if you violate,you getta fine.Second violation.You cant sell.
A Gulf of Mexico System(A tropical Depression)
Brings 3-5 inches of rain over a few days.
Version 1 04W Vmax 28 knots Link
=================================================
CCH, Here's how I diagnose tropical waves: There isnt really a magic way of telling you where an axis is...much of the dectection requires knowledge and using various tools
Conventional Satellite Imagery and Hovmoeller Diagrams
Surface Observations
Alternative (PDF)
Upper air time cross sections
Satellite derived winds from the CIMSS
Numerical Models (use this tool as a last resort. It only picks up half the actual waves out there.)
NCEP
Meteorological Analyses over Africa
Occasionally, I use this map. I dont reccommend it since it is rather outdated and contains a good amount of noise. But u can try it out.
Contiuation - when a wave is very ill define just extrapolate its last position based on the motion of speed.
QuikSCAT
WaveTrack at the CIMSS
Yeah theres alot of hustling and cheating in this line of work, but when you get potential, its huge.
Gas prices eh? Its $4.10 for reg and 4.56 for super.
My Merc E55 AMG only takes super and the maint is sky high.
I also bought a 1 year BMW M5 after Wilma... had to sell that tho...
38,491
In the past, there have been a few times where before a season, I select a date when South Florida would get with a storm or under threat by one, and I have usually come out to be within 1 day of the actual date for a storm. This year, I have two dates in mind.
July 27
September 29
These dates just come to me from my gut instinct, nothing more.
Probably not gonna amount to much here, but it's still giving some very unwanted rain to the areas affected by Cyclone Nargis.
Date: 14 May 2008
ReliefWeb Link
Myanmar: Cyclone Nargis Emergency Appeal No. MDRMM002 Operations Update No. 8 Link
Summary:
The International Research Institute for Climate Change and Society, based out of Columbia University in New York – and a partner of the International Federation – has warned that within the next six days, 12cm of rain is forecast on the Ayeyarwady delta. The potential seriousness is obvious with hundreds of thousands of people about to spend their twelfth night in the open or makeshift shelter. If the rain comes, the water has nowhere to go as the ground is already saturated and neither do the people as their homes are in tatters.
The International Red Cross says in a new estimate that the death toll may be between 68,833 and 127,990.
If you are using your 'back'button, refresh the page. Cuz Microsoft will have disabled some of the links -- especially the "button"ed ones -- some of the time while leaving you with the appearance of having an intact page. I've found it most often noticible 'back'ing into Google.
Make sure that you have the latest version of FireFox. Mozilla is very quick at countering Microsoft's gameplaying.
The GFS continues to show something developing in the West Caribbean in about 12 days, As we all know 12 days out from one model is VERY un-reliable...However the Caribbean is becoming increasingly more favorable especially in the western part of the Caribbean. 12 days from now it will be May 26th and with the way Tropical Waves have began rolling off of Africa quite frequently, I actually think the GFS could be RIGHT on target as far as tropical development in 12 days. However we will have to see if the GFS and some other models can still be showing this in about 7 days. If so then it's definitely something to monitor.
ITCZ:
Also the ITCZ has tooking a jump northward and stands now at about 10N, It has become increasingly more active in terms of clusters of convection and thunderstorms. This will need to be monitored as we near the season, Primarily due to the very warm pool of waters off the coast of Africa.
I will have a full tropical analysis as always at about 8:30PM tonight.
cchs,I agree,we have to be very wary up here in the northeast this season,actually the whole east coast.
ACTUALLY the WHOLE east coast and GULF coast! I sure dont like the way things are setting up. Thats for sure.
cchs what do you think is the earliest south florida should look at a REAL possibility...late june? I guess it depends on that Bermuda High
Um... Usually the first few storms of the year affect Fl. Last year we had Barry in Tampa (completely nothing). Alberto in '06, Arlene '05, Bonnie and Charley in '04, Andrew in '92, and a bunch more that I don't feel like looking up....USUALLY these early storms that affect fl come from the SW carib. and are fairly weak
10 out of 26 for IE 7.x
I tend to say the Gulf Coast has a much lower risk for a landfalling storm this season than the East Coast, although you cannot discount a possible storm developing in the GOM and making ladnfall somewhere there. The position of the high does not favor storms moving into the Gulf, rather it favors the Florida East Coast and northward.
Week 1
Week 2
NWS TPC TWD
205 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2008
From what I understand gas stations are making very little, if any, profit on the gas with wholesale prices high too. They will have to suck it up and replace pumps if they cannot handle the $4.00+ prices or lose money.
Really shortsighted if you ask me...why on earth that number? With Y2K, it is almost understandable...almost.
Preparation for Hurricanes - Table of Contents Link
Be Prepared for the Hurricane Season by reviewing your Plans and stocking up on Supplies.
This year one may want to Purchase fuel ahead of the season to ensure you have a adequate supply to safely evacuate from the Coast if needed.
Always store fuel products in Containers designed for such storage and use ALL caution when Storing.Always store fuel OUTSIDE a Home away from any ignition sources..
Storing Gasoline and Other Flammables Link
I tend to say the Gulf Coast has a much lower risk for a landfalling storm this season than the East Coast, although you cannot discount a possible storm developing in the GOM and making ladnfall somewhere there. The position of the high does not favor storms moving into the Gulf, rather it favors the Florida East Coast and northward.
Don't forget though, The Caribbean is also part of the MDR and if something develops there, It is likely it will move into the Gulf. Also if a tropical wave doesent develop right away off of Africa and waits till the Caribbean the Gulf coast is at risk also.
IR Image too Link
Well we have a new Tornado Watch out for West Texas .....The funny thing is that there's only a 20% Chance of Storms....Interesting!
4 Miles S Midland TX
Enter Your "City, ST" or zip code
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Point Forecast: 4 Miles S Midland TX
31.95N -102.11W (Elev. 2821 ft) Cell Phone Weather Link: www.srh.noaa.gov/wml
Last Update: 9:29 am CDT May 14, 2008
Forecast Valid: 2pm CDT May 14, 2008-6pm CDT May 20, 2008
Hazardous weather condition(s):
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Tornado Watch
This Afternoon: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 83. West wind between 15 and 20 mph.
Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 56. North wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to between 5 and 10 mph.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Northeast wind between 5 and 15 mph.
Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Northeast wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
GOES-12 Atlantic Basin Latest Low Cloud Product Image Link
Action: | Ignore User
Already some circulation/cyclonic turning associated with it? Sure appears so.
ALONG 16W OR SO...THIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE SFC MAP SOON.
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