Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

whether or not the models play out will be interesting to watch. I will be with my team of responders in Broward that week doing pre-land fall catastrophic planning, it would suck to have to travel from one end of florida to another.

So any chance we get rain like yesterday again today in south florida?

WU says you will get T-Storms I don't know how the rain was in Fl yesterday but here's your answer

I guess we'll know Tuesday/Wedensday if this area is going to materialize and where.

From what I heard MF, we can expect more of the same today.

WU has 60% chance of showers and T-Storms. Pretty good if you ask me.

Here in SW Florida the onshore breeze has been keeping the storms inland. they develop about 5 miles to the east of me and keep going east. it is kind of upsetting to watch those beautiful thinder heads develop and know you are not going to get any of the rain.

790. howarjo1943 6:02 AM GMT on May 24, 2008
The GFS is ridiculous, but I can already sense the panic in New Orleans if that scenario comes to fruition. If it forms over the SW caribbean, slowly moves north toward a weakness over the SE U.S., it could well become a hurricane when it nears Cuba. If ridging then takes place and lets the hurricane slowly move WNW over very warm southern Gulf waters, it could reach cat 3 strength over deep, warm waters and favorable conditions aloft. But, it would weaken very rapidly as it neared the coast and came ashore. The SST's are very cool in the northern Gulf right now and will still be below par for a few weeks. A lot of things would have to happen. But climotology is not on the GFS side

It would be almost impossible for this supposed disturbance to become a Category 3 hurricane, This is primarily due to conditions not being all that favorable, Yes SST's can likely support it but wind shear is to high...
IMO

We're supposed to fall into our normal summer patterns next week FloridaRick. This pattern has been very nice to the east coasters in need of rain.

Alright!! 60% chance of rain sounds good to me, thanks guys.

Total Cloud Cover

806, the steering pattern is expected to reverse after today. That will favor the west coast for the afternoon thunderstorms. Still, both coasts need rains to occur over the interior areas so evaporation over the everglades will help feed the daily afternoon rains or it will be a repeat of last summer. It never rained enough in the everglades to start the rainy season cycle so most of the state went dry. It is easy to forget just how much evaporation plays into our rainy season until a year like last year shows it.

I love how every hour I see a new picture of what one model "thinks" is going to happen. I will admit though, it kinda gets me excited for the season...

790. howarjo1943 1:02 AM CDT on May 24, 2008

The GFS is ridiculous, but I can already sense the panic in New Orleans




To be sure,folks here dont panic in a Hurricane,..we leave that to Folks who track Ghost,LOL

Morning TCW, CaneAddict, everyone!

The new 06z GFS has the SW Caribbean system forming on or by Wednesday (102 hours out) and eventually has it drifting off to the northeast and impacting the United States. However, the GFS may be encountering problems within the model initiation.
1) It may be handling moisture transfer between the two basins incorrectly. It gives too much moisture to the weaker low rather than the stronger EPAC low that the other models are developing.
2) There's not really much to bring the system northward with the agility of the GFS storm, other than a week trough extending south from near Bermuda.
The GFS has consistency on its side, but climatology and model consensus against it. I would say that the EPAC storms seems more likely; however, the SW Caribbean will become favorable for development (if it already isn\t) early next week. This still needs to be watched but I want to see more input from the ECMWF.

The ECMWF, while it develops the EPAC system, shows a developing low on the West Caribbean much in the same way that the GFS does. This is the first time the model has shown this. It is not nearly as aggressive as the GFS in intensity, which shows that at least the Euro is handling moisture better. It has the weak low (probably a TD or weak TS) over the Yucatan in the long range. Although track is very subjective this far out, I think the ECMWF is handling the system's path more correctly. The GFS has too much of a northward and eastward pull.

No other models develop this system. This includes the UKMET, NOGAPS, and NAM.

What the GFS has been predicting is the development of a low pressure area in the monsoon trough just south of Panama. This normally causes development in the EPAC, but occasionally the monsoon trough shifts northward into the SW Caribbean normally in the early part of the season (May/June) and the late part of the season (October/November) which causes development to occur there rather than in the EPAC. Any passing tropical waves normally enhances development. Now if one was to look at an infrared image...one would see the monsoon trough lies in the EPAC indicated by the amount of shower activity, but any northward shift could make a difference between the whether the CMC/UKMET or GFS/ECMWF is correct.

Past examples were Beta in 2005 and Mitch in 1998.

The EMCWF 0z still has the system but practically takes it down to a couple of thunderstorms and a 1010mb area of low pressure.

I still find this system hard to believe this early in the season.

Thanks W456; that would explain the apparent lack of suitable moisture in the SW Caribbean that the CMC and NAM are showing. So it depends on the position of the monsoon trough?

Would the expected upward pulse of the MJO next week have anything to do with the position of the trough 456?

Did someone switch the GFS with CMC?? Last year the CMC seemed like it developed every rainstorm in a TS or Hurricane... So much so we joked it was Constantly Making Cyclones...

I hope this is not an indication of a 2004 type year... That would not be good. Look out for $6+ / Gal gas.

good morning all

Have you noticed that unlike the past couple of years there is now hardly any dust at all over the Atlantic ?.

If other factors align this would contribute significantly to an early start for the CV season

Atl virtually dust free

Morning all :~)

Good to see ya kman

Not a good sign there, but the dust issue was predicted due to well above average rainfall across Africa.

Morning Kman.

I can't remember the last time I seen the ATL like that.

Morning SJ.

Morning TCW, good to see ya

Been quite some time.

05 even had more dust if I am not mistaken.

Hi SJ

Almost that time of year !

It has been bone dry here now since the middle of March. This is the first year in as long as I can remember that the Caymans have not had heavy rain in May.
With hardly any cloud cover for weeks on end, the water temps in this area are rising quickly.

For the Caribbean to remain this dry for so long is very unusual.

2005 had much more dust than whats out there now if I'm not mistaken. Thats one reason why there were very few CV storms.

Very true TCW

The last several years have all started out with lots of dust, especially 2006 if I recall

The CV season is way out.
Focus on the GOM, & the Caribbean,those are the early favored Climatological regions for development.
Not the Mid or eastern Atlantic.

Atlantic Basin GOES-12 WV Loop with Dry-Air ShadedLink

Pat

I agree the CV season is far out but the lack of dust is also important for the Caribbean as dust travels all the way to the islands.

Ive had to wash dust off the vehicles here from Africa,,those levels are way down for this year. And that also increases the SST's to an extent.

830.

Morning pat

Hey would you rather us discuss the 384hr GFS?

And you should know that mama nature does not always play by climatology rules. I would not be at all surprised to see an earlier then normal CV system this year. Next week, not likely, 3-4 weeks, yea maybe.

Im Glad Im not him, that chaser is a rogue.

ANd not a very savvy one..LOL

When this season is behind us, I wonder if that will end up helping us come CV season. Allowing waves to develop further out in the Atlantic, increasing the chances of recurvature. I realize there are many more factors to consider but, a more developed storm would adopt a more poleward drag if given the chance.

Morning SJ,Well..until those mid-latitude westerlies stop dominating the Atlantic,nada is to Form there.

Im leaning to the GFSx solution as thats the sweet spot come early June seems.

GFSx day 10, 3JUNE 0Z Link

It's hard to deny something you see day after day Patrap. We'll see come Wedensday.

818. TerraNova 8:48 AM AST on May 24, 2008

Yeah

819. TheCaneWhisperer 8:55 AM AST on May 24, 2008

Yeah, the expected MJO pulse could ehance SWwesterlies south of the trough causing a northward shift.

Good point on the westerlies pat, but with the way these waves are rolling off, it would only take a short relaxing for us to see some minor development out there.

As for the GFS, I agree, this Carib system is going to be interesting to watch. Still not sure how I feel about the GFS handling genesis though.

Its just a insight into what may occur.

But that area has been persistent in the GFSx for a few days now.

Terra,

Sure...but its a paid service

http://buoyweather.com/wxnav6.jsp?region=glo&program=Maps

As for the GFS, I agree, this Carib system is going to be interesting to watch. Still not sure how I feel about the GFS handling genesis though.

Phil Collins had that problem in the late 80s too SJ.

I've noticed that in the links you provide Patrap. What is the difference in the GFS and GFSx?

One thing is for certain and that is until the high that has dominated the Caribbean for weeks moves out and allows moisture to develop here there will not be any TS activity.

All that subsidence has put a lid on clouds forming. Earlier this week some rain clouds came up from the S but before we could even get a decent shower they were gone

UNYSIS develops the GFSx and i think it used to go by another name. Not Quite sure.
Im just a hack blogger. Not a met atall. LOL
UNYSIS page Link

I'm out for now

BBL

Im off to a morning graduation..later Kman

Exactly Kman...look how dry the entire Caribbean is, and even in the entire GOM (Gulf of Mexico)...

Exactly Kman...look how dry the entire Caribbean is, and even in the entire GOM (Gulf of Mexico)...

Presumably the monsoon trough would move northward and displace that dry air. It looks like that stable airmass is associated with an upper level low located south of Jamaica. The ULL is moving southwest.