Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

1548. FLWeatherFreak91 7:53 AM EDT on May 25, 2008

Thanks FLWeatherFreak.

I think the models will get a better handle on this situation when and if something develops. There are many undetermined things to answer that we're not able to now because there is nothing to look at (Size, Strength, Location of Development). All those play a major role in determining where it will go.

...you ask me why I love her? Why our soldiers love her! There's weather and whether all across this country, by some, many! Remember our Vets...those gone and those serving!

Houston/Galveston, Texas WFO

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN THAT EVENTUALLY
MOVES WEST INTO THE BAY CAMPHECHE...EARLIER RUNS SHOWED IT MAY
STALL OVER THE YUCATAN THEN HEADOFF TH THE EAST BUT BOTH GFS/ECMWF
NOW HAVE LESS OF A WEAKNESS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...BUT ENOUGH
RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND TEXAS TO STEER IT WEST
KEEPING IT WELL SOUTH. MAY MAKE FOR A WET SUNDAY IN SETX THE
FIRST SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF JUNE IF IT DEVELOPS AND TRACKS WEST
TAPING INTO THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE.

Brownsville, Texas WFO

ALTHOUGH THE 2008 HURRICANE SEASON DOES NOT START FOR
ANOTHER 7 DAYS...THE TROPICAL ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
ALREADY AS A TROPICAL WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED CONV IS NOW MOVING INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALSO...BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS TRY TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIB SEA AROUND 5/31-6/1
EVENTUALLY MOVING THIS SURFACE TROUGH/LOW INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEX DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM NHC/HPC CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL
FEATURE.

Well, I hope everyone "remembers" why they get to blog, and those that sacrifice everything for so many! God bless our soldiers whose shoulders, whose patriotism and courage is always steadfast and defends FREEDOM!

...Amen!

.

DELETED

Moonlight,
From all of us that have served, we thank you for your support! God Bless

No Final Nudge Needed for Phoenix
05.25.08, 9:30 a.m. EDT -- NASA's Phoenix Mars Lander will reach Mars this evening with no further adjustments to its flight path. The first possible time for confirmation that Phoenix has landed will be at 7:53 p.m. Eastern Time today.
Read more
› Next briefing: 6 p.m. Eastern, NASA TV on the Web Link

Here's a real great guide for the tropical weather forecaster from the Navy/NRL:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasters' Reference Guide

Morning all :~)

T- 9hrs 51 min Pat!

The Planets getting bigger by the minute in da window I bet..

Good Morning Everyone. Question, say a mention of a possible storm heading toward west coast of Florida. Never could find anything (model run) on that. Can anyone confirm or deny. Thanks in advance

1555...not against Memorial Day but your post has little to do with history. It's a movie, and a dead actor.

The opening monologue, delivered by Scott with an enormous American flag behind him, remains an iconic and often quoted image in film. Despite the rise of the Vietnam protest movement and a decline in interest in World War II movies, the film became a success and an American classic.[2]

In 2003, Patton was selected for preservation in the United States National Film Registry by the Library of Congress as being "culturally, historically, or aesthetically significant".

Gee, How deflating. I liked Patton and George C. Scott.


A Oscar Award winning Actor and Best Film for that Year,71 I believe.
A tribute to WW-2 Vets.

Thanx MLC.

GOES-12 Atlantic Ocean View (Updated ~3 hours) Link

1570,

LINK

One cant see the Future.
But one can Prepare.

Hurricane Preparedness Week Starts Today

So, folks are we FINALLY going to see a Carib storm at some point this week or aren't we? Any reply would be greatly appreciated!!!

LOL, that a very good question! Honestly, it's impossible to tell. I suppose the fact that some NWS forecasting offices have begun to notice, and (more over) that more models have begun to catch on is an indication that the possiblity of an Atlantic storm is rising. But how likely this scenerio is is very to tell. Right now all we can rely on are models that can't seem to make up their minds and climatology. Again, only time will tell. Wednesday will be very interesting in the tropics.

I was just looking at the GFS models, and what are these blob that seems to be developing? Please explain to me!

Monday June 02



Monday June 09

Its a Model run..nothing more.Just a tool for insight as to what MAY occur.
Do not use for Planning Purposes.

Rely on the NHC,NWS and your Local NWS office for official Forecast Products

thanx patrap!

UNYSIS GFSx Day 10 4JUNE 0Z Surface Link

I was just looking at the GFS models, and what are these blob that seems to be developing? Please explain to me!

Refer to post #1554.

1574. juniormeteorologist 9:46 AM CDT on May 25, 2008
I was just looking at the GFS models, and what are these blob that seems to be developing? Please explain to me!

It's moisture...too far in advance to know if it's anything more.

U may also like to take a look at this QuikSCAT pass. It shows a circulation near 85W-90W north of 10N. Likely induced by a passing tropical wave.

Thanks again patrap! I just looked at that model also...

TerraNova, I read that statement, and i highly think that there is a good chance this will become the first system of the year.

1574.

It also helps to look at the different variables that models forecast jm. Ex being, vorticity, upper level winds, etc.

These are some pretty good video tutorials on using and navigating several of the model pages.

BarometerBob Show Link

Dont forget to join Barometer Bob for The 2008 Hurricane Preparedness Week will be held May 25th through May 31st.


Bob will be hosting "Hurricane Hollow's Hurricane Awareness Week" Internet Broadcasts each evening beginning at 8PM/ET on WRBN.Net with your host Barometer Bob Brookens and special guests.


Scheduled Guests

Sunday May 25 - Lew Fincher, from HurricaneConsulting.Net. You have seen him on the History Channel special about "Isaac's Storm" the 1900 Galveston Hurricane.
Monday May 26 - Jamie Rhome, Hurricane Specialist at the National Hurricane Center.
Tuesday May 27 - Bob Breck, Chief Meteorologist from WVUE-TV - Fox 8 in New Orleans, LA.
Wednesday May 28 - Laura Algeo, FEMA Region IV, National Flood Insurance Program.
Thursday May 29 - Eric Blake, Hurricane Specialist at the National Hurricane Center. We will also have Butch Loper, Emergency Operations/Civil Defense Director for Jackson County, MS.
Friday May 30 - Leslie Chapman-Henderson, Director of FLASH.Org.
Saturday May 31 - Michelle Jantz Manager, Program Management and Support Preparedness and Health and Safety Services from the American Red Cross.

Hurricane Hollow's Eye on the Storm June 1st Broadcast

Bob will have special guests, callers and you can join us in Storm Chat!
My guests include:
Spokeperson from 511 the Traffic Information Portal.
Gary Padgett, from the Tropical Cyclone Summeries.
And more! Stay tuned for more information on the 8 nights of broadcasts from www.WRBN.Net!


Come join in chat for a full week of Hurricane Prepardness

1568. Patrap

An excellent film.

As a member of a pacifist "sect" I treat the day as one of mourning for all the dead of all wars civilian & military. How many here can say that their childhood pastor began his service with a prayer for wisdom for "ALL those in authority" and thanks for "guidance to a Land where we are allowed to worship as we chose"?

No doubt,Patton had a sense of History and was a Avid reader of it.

He knew his role and never wavered on it. One has to respect a Man/General who Leads and Hit his Knee's every Night for Guidance doing it.Link

why wednesday? is that when the development is supposed to occur according to gfs?

I just uploaded a few dozen pics of the damage around Windsor. Emergency crews/police have the area very well cordoned off, but I was able to get onto the Kodak property and take some pics of the area directly in the middle of the path of the tornado just before it tore through Windsor, after it hit the RV park where the solde fatality was recorded.

Pictures are at:

http://simons.smugmug.com/gallery/5011218_MXGZP#300623773_RbdTe

Here's a particulary interesting image- one tree that was standing left out of pretty much a razed field, with sheet metal squarely wrapped around one of the twisted branches:

Good morning. Still unclear about where cyclogenesis will occur but the ECMWF, NOGAPS, and GFS hint development in the western Caribbean likely advected from the EPAC.

...And if you're really interested, this sorta thing runs in the family. The Palm Sunday Tornado that destroyed Dunlap in 1965 claimed the houses of most of my immediate family. My father took what I think are the only color pictures that survive of the aftermath of that event. I have posted the 43 year old pics here:

http://simons.smugmug.com/gallery/96548_A9DrZ#3389180_4tGJy

Now That's EF-4/EF-5 damage.

Safety Lapses Raised Risks In Trailers for Katrina Victims

Formaldehyde Found in High Levels; 17,000 Say Homes Caused Illnesses

By Spencer S. Hsu
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, May 25, 2008; Page A01

Within days of Hurricane Katrina's landfall in August 2005, frantic officials at the Federal Emergency Management Agency ordered nearly $2.7 billion worth of trailers and mobile homes to house the storm's victims, many of them using a single page of specifications.
This Story

*
Safety Lapses Raised Risks In Trailers for Katrina Victims
*
Formaldehyde: A Range of Standards
*
Three Types of FEMA Housing

Today, industry and government experts depict the rushed procurement and construction as key failures that may have triggered a public health catastrophe among the more than 300,000 people, many of them children, who lived in FEMA homes.

nola.com Link

Peeved at Prices? Don't Blame the Dealer
Awash in Profit, Exxon Fights for Pennies While Raising the Rent

Exxon keeps Sohaila Rezazadeh's profit to pennies on the gallon, even as it raises the lease on her Oakton station by about 10 percent a year. (By Lois Raimondo

Every time Sohaila Rezazadeh rings up a sale at her Exxon station on Chain Bridge Road in Oakton, her cash register sends the information to Exxon Mobil's central computers. If she raises the price of gasoline a couple of pennies, chances are that Exxon will raise the wholesale price she pays by the same amount.

Through a password-protected Web portal, Exxon notifies Rezazadeh of wholesale price changes daily. That way the oil giant, which is earning about $3.3 billion a month, fine-tunes the pump prices at the franchise Rezazadeh has owned for 12 years.

Now, however, Rezazadeh says she cannot stay in business. Credit-card fees are eating her profit margins. Exxon, which owns the station land, last week handed Rezazadeh a new lease raising her rent about 30 percent over the next three years. She stuck a copy on the window of her station to show customers who are angry about soaring pump prices. Rezazadeh has told Exxon that she cannot make money with the rent that high. Her territory manager's reply, she said, was simple: When you go, leave us the keys.

Hi all!

Whats the news of the day?

Aww, Nasaspaceflight's blogs down, how am I gonna watch the Mars Landing?

Heres the cross over storm. (NOGAPS)

Y'all in the midwest have been sucking in our warm Gulf air for the past week.

The steady wind and warm air flowing North out of Texas has been wreaking havoc. My tomato plants are drying up, swimming pool needed to be topped off and my wife had three 'bad hair days' this week.

Enough with the wind. The Midwest has been enjoying your violent weather, but its time to calm down now and keep the southern Gulf breeze in the south. Warm air doesn't grow on trees, you know. Stop sucking it all away from Texas.

Another thing to consider is how much cyclogenesis will occur with the system in the EPAC before it crosses over into the Caribbean.

Morning all. What happened to Vort's blog?

I see there is still somewhat of a split as to which basin this Low will be in.