Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

lol mlc!

I'll be here for the first picture and the 00z GFS run LOL...

Sure you are listening mlc, but just in case, 90 minutes until first pictures :~)

Just fantastic! I myself am speechless.

First pictures from the Phoenix due in about an hour and a half.

hopefully this is the start of a future job for my young buck - his eyes are sparkling with excitement watching the control crew etc. (thanks for the great links patrap) This is what gives our kids hope, direction and purpose - what a terrific "UP" for all of us. It's all been rather dismal news lately --this is just GREAT! Watching my kid view this, I see he recognizes his dreams can be a reality! It makes all his geometry, algebra, science, chem, etc. have a purpose!

Ditto nash, can not wait until we get to put a foot down over there. Can only hope I get to live long enough to see it.

a rare moment Nash! ...hee hee

A possible tropical wave across West Africa



This is no doubt an african easterly wave across Central Africa

2103. Yeah, SJ, listening! What a happy crew...still hearing lots of laughter. UofA now takes on the mission - .25 degree tilt? That's like perfect! WTG, NASA!

Yeah, those pictures should be awesome!!!

Dude said pucker factor....lmao :c)

456, sure seems CV is shooting pretty hard, fairly early - like a sling shot pulling back ready to fire all that potential energy. Does this seem normal to you, timeliness and frequency, now, at which they're rolling off? Or is it just me noticing them more?

Yea W456, I was just looking at the EUMETSAT animations on that.

older son graduates as a commercial diver/diver EMT & underwaterwelding --graduates this Friday...looks like a job in the gomex or Malta. If it's the gulf - should be interesting.

younger son dreams of doing some kind of engineering for the space program - this kind of an event really stokes the fires in a kid.

So I'll have one working the heavens, the other under the sea.

2093. moonlightcowboy 8:03 PM AST on May 25, 2008
2078. Gotcha 456, but weeks ago we came to consensus in here that most dust rides at the mid-levels. The cATL shows really nothing in the upper levels and only a spot in the mids. Water vapor looks plentiful and Navy's TPW product pretty much reflects that, too.

Ur correct, and I just check TRMM measurements...near-above normal moisture out there.

Join Barometer Bob for The 2008 Hurricane Preparedness Week will be held May 25th through May 31st.


Bob will be hosting "Hurricane Hollow's Hurricane Awareness Week" Internet Broadcasts each evening beginning at 8PM/ET on WRBN.Net with your host Barometer Bob Brookens and special guests.


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Sunday May 25 - Lew Fincher, from HurricaneConsulting.Net. You have seen him on the History Channel special about "Isaac's Storm" the 1900 Galveston Hurricane.
Monday May 26 - Jamie Rhome, Hurricane Specialist at the National Hurricane Center.
Tuesday May 27 - Bob Breck, Chief Meteorologist from WVUE-TV - Fox 8 in New Orleans, LA.
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Thursday May 29 - Eric Blake, Hurricane Specialist at the National Hurricane Center. We will also have Butch Loper "AKA sandcrab", Emergency Operations/Civil Defense Director for Jackson County, MS.
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have a good evening all, thanks for those phoenix links, and keep an eye on what's cooking in the BOC ---I like seeing those channel swell waves visit my beach from there.

2114. moonlightcowboy 8:18 PM AST on May 25, 2008
456, sure seems CV is shooting pretty hard, fairly early - like a sling shot pulling back ready to fire all that potential energy. Does this seem normal to you, timeliness and frequency, now, at which they're rolling off? Or is it just me noticing them more?

The frequency is matched with 2005 and to some extent 2004. We have a little more than 2004. But thats not really what suprises me, its the organization of these waves in May. They are not normal. I have spotted several waves this month that had the organization of June, July and August waves. The only difference between these waves and the ones found during those months is the latitude. What is also extraordinary is that one of these waves aquired a close circulation. If another waves attempt that even late next month or July at 10-15N with more moisture, less shear....1 plus 1 equals 2.

I think in July we could see a CV storm or 2 form easily especially judging from the anomalously high precip values that area forecast by the CFS and ECMWF..

2120. Thought so, thanks. 1 + 1 = T R O U B L E, ugh!

This season will have all different types of storms like many of them do but I can almost totally assure you it will be known as mainly a bad CV season. 456 is correct about the overly high organization of these early waves. In years past i can't recall talking about an atlantic wave until mid or late july

Does anyone believe the hebert box box? truthfully i dont.

i wonder if they will ever fix the sst's on here. most of the GOMex is already at 80.

I know if "ifs and butts" were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas; BUT, that last wave with the closed low would have probably developed absent the TUTT - prolly a fish storm, but could have real easily been our first invest, first storm. Granted a right turn would have found cooler waters though. Still, very interesting so early in the season (May), lol!

090. aspectre 7:02 PM CDT on May 25, 2008
....Welcome to the North Pole of Mars."

I am a big fan of mars....I want them to confirm frozen water and find some sort of present or signs of past life. It would be awesome of that rover could melt a sample of the ice.

Speaking of the TUTT....remember the TUTT is maintained by subsidence in the subtropical ridges. If those ridges are forecasted to be weaker than normal, then that is an idicator of the strength and nature of the TUTT. An example would be to look at two years on different ends of the spectrum:

2007 and 2004

2128. 456, ok, expand, plz, on that comment. TIA

does anyone actually believe the theory about the Hebert boxes?

2130. moonlightcowboy 8:48 PM AST on May 25, 2008
2128. 456, ok, expand, plz, on that comment. TIA

Remember when I posted the graphic ealrier in the yr.

Also,

2007 - Positive NAO ridge, potent TUTT
2004 - Negative NAO, weak TUTT

Ok, then we can expect less and weaker TUTTS; again, trouble. hhhhhmmmm!

I hope this season gets 30 storms with 28 being fish storms =)
if not then can I have only 12 storms =)

456, do you still have that graphic close? If not, no big deal. Thanks.

Hey Weather456 considering the fact that 08 may have an active cape Verde season and with the amount and the organization of the tropical waves in May do you think the islands are in for a bad season?

- haha, I've heard several talk about the HBox before, but I've not gotten a great deal out of it's theory. Baha could probably give some good info on that!

MLC I will try to find it and post it


2136. JLPR 9:00 PM AST on May 25, 2008
Hey Weather456 considering the fact that 08 may have an active cape Verde season and with the amount and the organization of the tropical waves in May do you think the islands are in for a bad season?

I am afraid to answer lol, but in my forecast and other forecasts put out by Caribbean mets...it appears the Caribbean is at a higher risk especially the northern part. But that does not mean anything....Every year we get affected by hurricanes, that is one thing I can guarantee.

I have been watching the discussions on the blog about the various models forecasting a NW Caribbean system at the end of this week.

Climatology has shown year after year that if tropical systems do develop in either the early or late part of the season they tend to do so in the Southern Caribbean. In addition, such development tends to be very slow, often taking 4 to 5 days to produce a closed low.

Given the extremely dry conditions seen so far and still prevailing in the Caribbean I would be surprised if the models verify with a tropical cyclone in 5 to 7 days. Looking at the basin now there is not even a rain shower around.

To go from this to a well organised system by the end of this week is, in my opinion, more than a stretch

hey kmanislander how are you doing tonight.

All Americans should feel justifiably proud, of that incredible piece of precision engineering.
Amazing performance by all concerned.
Congratulations..........

Hello all, hows everyone tonight!!

K'man, hey! Makes plenty of sense to me, lots of dry air hangin' round those parts.

Looks like the GFS is aiming for the Panhandle of Florida. I still see that it has a 1034 mb high forecast that far out but with a trough weakening its western side as the low pressure moves north through the gulf. Can't wait to see the 00Z run says. Looks like the season is going to start at the very least with a bang. They have us model watching already.

Hi there haha

Just throwing in my 2 cents worth

I think that too much reliance is being placed on computer generated storms.

Hi MLC

If the Caribbean can go from bone dry with major subsidence to tropical storm in 6 days that would be a first !

Jeez dont all answer at once......

ahh lol Weather456
I have been 10years hurricane free I am afraid something ends that time of peace =(

But I guess that comes with living on an island in the ocean =P

The most interesting thing about the models is seeing if they are actually right in the long run. I think most of us like to see if they do in fact predict cyclogenesis fairly well.

i'm pretty good how bout you chaser.

2141 :~))

2145...
So now the government is using computers to generate a storm that will hit Pensacola next week ¿~)