Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

We don't see anything in Virginia we've only been in a tornado watch once that I can remember. and I've only seen golf ball sized hail here once. VA is a place void in natural disasters (not completely of course )

Morning All.

Looks like the models are coming into better agreement, as the time grows near, of a tropical system around the Yucatan late this week. MJO pulse is very, very slowly propagating eastward as seen by the moisture increase the Extreme Western Caribbean. We should start to see some action in the next day or two.

Wind shear just sort of took over the Caribbean so development seems unlikely at the moment but the dry air in the Caribbean is moving out

Here ya go JFV....

Link

Good morning everyone.

good morning........

Morning Drak.

I just looked at GFS 06z and the NOGAPS 00z run and those runs seem to take the system into Florida. The GFS in Central Florida and the NOGAPS in South Florida. Both models have very impressive systems. Ultimately the track will be be based on the timing and strength of the shortwave and the position and strength of the A/B high.

But since this system will be sheared away to the East it would be far more beneficial for the rain deficit if it hit further north in the state.

Good Morning everyone. To those who served in our military, Thank you; i owe you a debt i could never repay.

Drak whats up. we could use the rain here in pinellas county so i say let the rains come.

I think 40 is enough to rip apart any hurricane

You can't use that current shear map. The models show an upper level anticyclone building over the system as it moves through the western Caribbean.

Also the convective mass in the epac has been drifting eastward for some time now which is an indicator of the movement of the mjo.

It's not in the Caribbean now...more favorable shear where it's at...eastern PAC....

sorry I couldn't find a predicted shear map or those weakening shear/ strengthening shear maps. If the shear weakens all the dry air goes away and a big blob comes in I wouldn't deny it's formation
but what are the chances of that happening by later this week?

I know we don't like AccuWeather here for the most part, but just for kicks check out their forecast for June 3-5 for North Tampa.

Here's their 6-10 day for Miami.......

Link

272. JFV 9:36 AM EDT on May 26, 2008 Hide this comment.
well hint hint, i wonder why they're forcasting so much wind for us down here in miami for next week! gang, any ideas LOL!

They're long-term forecasts are based entirely on the GFS model- I guarantee you. They watch one computer model and the right the forecast, so when the models change again, say bye bye to the wind forecast lol

Hmm...that 6-10 day accuweather forecast for Miami looks kinda ominous lol...

For anyone who needs a link to all the models in one place here you go:

Link

FLWFreak do they really just change their forecast based on what a single model says?

When the next few models come out let's see if accuweather changes anything drastically ok?

oh god don't say accuweather lol

276. MasterForecaster 9:45 AM EDT on May 26, 2008 Hide this comment.
FLWFreak do they really just change their forecast based on what a single model says?

When the next few models come out let's see if accuweather changes anything drastically ok?

I have been checking their forecasts every day and yes, it does change rather drastically. Yesterday, for example, the forecast read "very hot" for the 3rd and 4th, and windy on the 5th. Today it says windy all three days. I think this has something to do with the fact that the GFS now brings the system much closer than it was doing yesterday.

I didn't realize it but the CMC thinks it will get picked up by the trough and head towards south Florida as a major hurricane lol!

Drakoen I commend you on the way you handled the situation with Scottsvb... seems like theres always someone on here trying to start trouble.

Is there a rotation near 48L , 8L, moving wnw? Is that a UTT? Just asking.....

I don't understand why ScottsVB is so bitchy when he comes in here......he was like that last year...he's trying to incite folks....

I was surprised as well Drak. There's a rather strong consensus building up here. Much better than the past week anyway.

The ECMWF hasn't trended toward development...yet. Somebodies right and somebody is wrong with these models(GFS,CMC,NOGAPS vs. ECMWF, UKMET...east PAC development).

NEW BLOG!

In the latest runs, we now have three models (GFS, NOGAPS, and CMC) all forecast a significant tropical cyclone hitting South Florida by the first week in June. Even though the track could always change, this is the highest model consensus we have had to date with this potential system. For the first time, I will place in my Tropical Weather Discussion that there will be a Western Caribbean storm by week's end when I update it later today.

Is anyone else confused about how the models expect a developing tropical storm to cross about 400 miles of the mountainous countries of Honduras and Nicaragua? Most of the models show it crossing this and emerging in the West Carib almost unharmed. Don't storms usually struggle to make it over much smaller landmasses like Cuba or Hispanola? I guess if it keeps on the eastern flatter side of Nicaragua it could be fine...

From what I can understand Cane, it will be a broad area of low pressure that spans the EPAC and over into the Western Caribbean. In which a center can relocate anywhere within the area. Similar to what happened last year. I can't remember the storm name but it hopped over Florida.

Sorry to hear about the terrible storms you're having - I've been intermittently lurking for some weeks now.

We are also sharing your fuel price squeeze in the UK. Here, one UK gallon costs £5.67, or $11.22. In terms of US gallons that is £4.71, or $9.32!!! What do you pay?

Take care of yourselves.

What are the chances something will form before hurricane season begins?

My attitude was a question if he was a Met and a bunch of you little teenage kids wanted to ensight something over it.

He handled it like a WUSS.. Got scared and ran off holding hands with you guys who follow him.

That is why us Mets dont use these blog boards. Oh and btw I had 7 people who wrote me last night into this morning telling me I was right to ask and also said some mean stuff about him (which I have nothing personal against).

I suggest reading over the document, "Owning the weather in 2025."

First air survey video of damage in Iowa from the large wedge tornado(es) yesterday:
http://www.kcci.com/video/16395381/index.html

The pilot stated that he followed the damage for 43 miles.