The 2008 Memorial Day Weekend tornado outbreak will continue to hammer the U.S. today, even as residents from Iowa and Minnesota clean up from the devastating tornadoes that killed eight people Sunday afternoon. A mile-wide tornado plowed through Parkersburg, Iowa between 5pm and 6pm CDT yesterday, killing five people in that city, and two in nearby New Hartford. It was the deadliest tornado in Iowa in more than 40 years. The tornado passed just north of the airport in Waterloo, Iowa, which recorded sustained winds of 64mph, gusting to 94 mph at 5:37pm CDT. Damage appeared to be at least EF-4 in photos I saw, and possibly EF-5 (over 200 mph). In Minnesota, another powerful twister killed at least one person and injured 9 in the Minneapolis suburb of Hugo.
Figure 1. Satellite image of the supercell thunderstorms that spawned the Parkerburg, Iowa and Hugo, Minnesota tornadoes on May 25, 2008.
The slow-moving low pressure system responsible for all the mayhem began in Colorado on Thursday, when the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) recorded 48 reports of tornadoes, including the EF-3 mile-wide twister that killed one person in Windsor, Colorado. On Friday, an additional 63 tornado reports occurred, mostly in Kansas. The tornado that hit Quinter, Kansas on Friday was the eighth violent EF-4 tornado of the year. Also on Friday, two people were killed in Cairo, Kansas when a tornado smashed a car trying to flee the storm. If you want to see why one should not try to escape a tornado in a car, take a look at what the tornado did to the car. Saturday was relatively quiet, with only 13 tornado reports, but Sunday's tally of 43 brought the 4-day total from the 2008 Memorial Day weekend outbreak to a remarkable 157 tornado reports. Some of these tornado reports are undoubtedly of the same tornado, so the actual number of tornadoes for the 4-day outbreak may be less than 150. BBC has some awesome aerial footage of the weekend tornadoes.
Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image (top) of the May 25, 2008 Parkersburg, Iowa tornado. The position of Parkersburg is marked by a circle with a cross in the middle. Bottom: Doppler velocity image of the tornado, showing a small core of red and blue colors right next to each other, denoting strong winds towards and away from the radar, the classic signature of a tornado vortex.
Figure 3. Radar reflectivity image (top) of the May 25, 2008 Hugo, Minnesota tornado. The position of Hugo is marked by a circle with a cross in the middle. Bottom: Doppler velocity image of the tornado, showing a small core of red and blue colors right next to each other, denoting strong winds towards and away from the radar, the classic signature of a tornado vortex. We've also saved a 12-frame radar animation of the Hugo cell, thanks to wunderground member Todd S.
Tallying up the numbers
The death toll from Sunday pushes this year's tornado deaths to 111, the most since 1998, when 130 were recorded. Assuming that the Parkersburg, Iowa tornado was an EF-4 or EF-5, there have been nine violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes this year. This is the most since 1999, when 13 such twisters were recorded. The total number of tornadoes this year is approaching 1100, and we may challenge the all time record for tornadoes in a year of 1817, set in 2004. Could this be a sign of climate change? No, I don't think so, and I'll explain why in a blog later this week.
Severe weather forecast
Severe weather will pound the U.S. again this Memorial Day, with the main action expected to stretch more than halfway across the country--from Texas to New York. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle under its "Moderate Risk" category for severe weather, one step below its highest level of concern, "High Risk". Yesterday was also a "Moderate Risk" day in Iowa and Minnesota. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. After today, it appears the severe weather outbreak will finally diminish, with only a slight risk of severe weather expected Tuesday, and no severe weather expected Wednesday.
Possible development in the Western Caribbean or Eastern Pacific late this week
For the past 3-6 days, our most reliable global computer weather forecast models have been predicting the development of a low pressure system near or over Central America by Friday of this week. Given the persistence in the models in developing this low, we need to be alert to the possibility of a tropical depression forming in either the Western Caribbean or Eastern Pacific, on either side of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. It is uncertain which ocean basin such a storm might form in, and whether or not there will be a tropical wave around to help kick off development. It may be that the low pressure region will stay anchored over land south of the Yucatan Peninsula, preventing any development. This is the solution preferred by the ECMWF model in its last few runs. However, the GFS, NOGAPS, and Canadian models all predict a tropical depression might form in the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. In contrast, the UKMET shows development in the Eastern Pacific, on the Pacific side of Central America. Climatologically, May tropical storms are much more common in the Eastern Pacific than the Western Caribbean, so we should not discount the UKMET solution, even though it is an outlier. All five models predict that the Central American low pressure area will move northward towards the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear may fall enough to allow a tropical depression to form should the low's center emerge over water. I'll be posting daily updates on the situation this week.
Jeff Masters
A large and violent wedge tornado near Quinter, Kansas. Photo Copyright Mike Theiss
Photo of a wallcloud crossing road near lacrosse, Kansas on May 25, 2008. Photo copyight Mike Theiss
These are pictures taken of the storm that went through Forest Lake / Hugo, MN. The tornado passed 3 miles south of us, but we got a pretty vicious shot of hail for about 15 minutes straight. The pictures of bldg damage are west of the worst tornado damage, probably where the funnel cloud was just about to reach the ground.
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 — Blog Index
Don't worry SP. I am in my mid thirties and I still have a hard time not splitting atoms with some of the bozos on here. :-)
Is that supposed to give me encouragement or hope for the future? LOL! ;D
Good to see ya press
Sorry if my term "real mets" hit a nerve. My point was that Dave Schwartz is not the same as the guys and gals at JPL, GFDL, NEMOC, NOAA, and the NWS; yet they may all carry the "met" title.
Interesting! I wonder how many people really know who their "met" is. Many TV Mets simply have a certificate from places like Mississippi State U. Some have Met degrees from very reputable colleges but if you look closely it was the broadcast journalism track. Though I prefer to remain anonymous, I have been involved in weather since the 60's and have worked with both degreed and non degreed forecasters. Some of the best have been non degreed forecasters with extensive application experience. You can find them in the military, on TV, and working behind the scenes at some private forecast services. A fine example who unfortunately is no longer with us was Gil Patrick from Albany, GA
You guys know what the African dust is suppossed to be like this year? Seems like that has been spoiling our fun as of lately
Hey, SJ, everyone.
Broadcast mets: Sometimes they have a glorified journalism degree and nothing more. Sure they have some tools and spend a lot of time on it, but to assume that they really know what they are talking about may be in error. Not in all cases, of course, but some.
TV weather broadcasts are far too short and simple to satisfy the desires of anyone with a real interest.
Another point: Some of you guys in here are more thorough in the realm of tropical meteorology, especially TCs, than my professor of Tropical Meteorology was for a senior level course on the subject. There have been items covered here that were basically glossed over. TUTT comes to mind.
Your point: Real mets are in research. Yes, mostly. I do know some that kept 4.0s, and close, that went on to broadcast jobs. Waste of talent if you ask me, but it is what they wanted. To get As in 3 physics courses, 6 math courses above calculus, dynamics, mesoscale/severe, numerical modeling, atmo chem, and the like seems excessive for a broadcast job. Considering some of the specialty courses, computer programming, numerical modeling, chemistry, and physics most of us can make more money and have a more forgiving schedule in research. I personally would not want the job to get to work at 4am Christmas morning to give a 6am forecast declaring that it is going to be cool and sunny. That sounds extremely dull to me.
I myself do not have a Met degree. I have been actively involved in studying weather, atmospheric conditions, etc... since I was a kid. Over the last four years, I have come to have a passion for the tropics. I was fortunate enough to become friends with StormW, who bequeathed to me a couple of very good books to study from. I have gained alot of knowledge by both self study and also by folks here like StormW, Weatherguy03, etc....
"The wise man builds his house on the rock"
Not everyone can afford a 4 or 6 year stint at an FSU, PSU, Rutgers, CSU, etc... Such is the same in any job that requires a scientific skill set. The best thing you can do for yourself is to self study like the dickens, hammer it home! Get as much applicational experience that you can without that lovely neat piece of paper called a degree. Get your foot in the door where you want to be schlepping coffee if you have to. Work your ass off, and degree or no degree I guarantee you. Eventually, someone will notice your skill set. Hard work from the ground up is just as valuable, and sometimes more than being able to pass exams.
Nash: Thank You, That's the way i look at it. I really love coming in here to read and learn, I don't talk that much. When the blog don't have alot of folks on here i may ask a few questions. And I hate it when someone comes in and tries to stir the pot and cause trouble when they don't even know what's been going on all day. That's why I love the + & - & Hide button. They work so good.
Your Salmon sounds really good. I've never ate salmon before. The only fish I have ever ate is Bass & Flounder.
Sheri
18z GFS just started running. Link
Here is another tip gang...
Anyone who comes in here to stir the pot, or call people morons, usually is jealous of those folks. It's the truth. In past years, I would have turned this guy into soup verbally, but now, I take the comment as a compliment.
However last I saw, SSTs in the far eastern portion of the MDR -- plus in the area east of CapeVerde while south of the MDR -- are 1&1/2 to 2 degrees above normal.
Anybody have any idea how that's going to affect the 2008 hurricane season? Any comparable seasons?
LOL!
Cannot be denied. There are some driven individuals that have, through experience and head-strong will, a great skill set in meteorology and are very knowledgeable. You can find some of them here.
USA has an up and coming program. Who knows, if I were going back to school I might have gone there.
Good luck LA444! One thing I can tell you is do not get down about your degree choice when you are taking some of the first math and physics. In my case, they were the most difficult courses of my entire experience. After the first year it only get easier. Once I got into some of the upper-level Atmo courses, the interest level seemingly hides the difficulty.
lol
hugging the coast
Good luck.
BBL, guys. Time to light the pit up. Happy Memorial day.
Remember all of those that paid the ultimate price so we can all come in here and say what we like about the subject we all love. Freedom is NOT free.
Thank yall for all your support and advice...i try to contribute to this blog the best way i can i love to post actively but like i said my knowledge is still growing so if anyone needs to correct me on something i say do it...mistakes are your best learning tool :)
Viewing: 601 - 651
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 — Blog Index