The 2008 Memorial Day Weekend tornado outbreak will continue to hammer the U.S. today, even as residents from Iowa and Minnesota clean up from the devastating tornadoes that killed eight people Sunday afternoon. A mile-wide tornado plowed through Parkersburg, Iowa between 5pm and 6pm CDT yesterday, killing five people in that city, and two in nearby New Hartford. It was the deadliest tornado in Iowa in more than 40 years. The tornado passed just north of the airport in Waterloo, Iowa, which recorded sustained winds of 64mph, gusting to 94 mph at 5:37pm CDT. Damage appeared to be at least EF-4 in photos I saw, and possibly EF-5 (over 200 mph). In Minnesota, another powerful twister killed at least one person and injured 9 in the Minneapolis suburb of Hugo.
Figure 1. Satellite image of the supercell thunderstorms that spawned the Parkerburg, Iowa and Hugo, Minnesota tornadoes on May 25, 2008.
The slow-moving low pressure system responsible for all the mayhem began in Colorado on Thursday, when the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) recorded 48 reports of tornadoes, including the EF-3 mile-wide twister that killed one person in Windsor, Colorado. On Friday, an additional 63 tornado reports occurred, mostly in Kansas. The tornado that hit Quinter, Kansas on Friday was the eighth violent EF-4 tornado of the year. Also on Friday, two people were killed in Cairo, Kansas when a tornado smashed a car trying to flee the storm. If you want to see why one should not try to escape a tornado in a car, take a look at what the tornado did to the car. Saturday was relatively quiet, with only 13 tornado reports, but Sunday's tally of 43 brought the 4-day total from the 2008 Memorial Day weekend outbreak to a remarkable 157 tornado reports. Some of these tornado reports are undoubtedly of the same tornado, so the actual number of tornadoes for the 4-day outbreak may be less than 150. BBC has some awesome aerial footage of the weekend tornadoes.
Figure 2. Radar reflectivity image (top) of the May 25, 2008 Parkersburg, Iowa tornado. The position of Parkersburg is marked by a circle with a cross in the middle. Bottom: Doppler velocity image of the tornado, showing a small core of red and blue colors right next to each other, denoting strong winds towards and away from the radar, the classic signature of a tornado vortex.
Figure 3. Radar reflectivity image (top) of the May 25, 2008 Hugo, Minnesota tornado. The position of Hugo is marked by a circle with a cross in the middle. Bottom: Doppler velocity image of the tornado, showing a small core of red and blue colors right next to each other, denoting strong winds towards and away from the radar, the classic signature of a tornado vortex. We've also saved a 12-frame radar animation of the Hugo cell, thanks to wunderground member Todd S.
Tallying up the numbers
The death toll from Sunday pushes this year's tornado deaths to 111, the most since 1998, when 130 were recorded. Assuming that the Parkersburg, Iowa tornado was an EF-4 or EF-5, there have been nine violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes this year. This is the most since 1999, when 13 such twisters were recorded. The total number of tornadoes this year is approaching 1100, and we may challenge the all time record for tornadoes in a year of 1817, set in 2004. Could this be a sign of climate change? No, I don't think so, and I'll explain why in a blog later this week.
Severe weather forecast
Severe weather will pound the U.S. again this Memorial Day, with the main action expected to stretch more than halfway across the country--from Texas to New York. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle under its "Moderate Risk" category for severe weather, one step below its highest level of concern, "High Risk". Yesterday was also a "Moderate Risk" day in Iowa and Minnesota. The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow the severe weather. Also, tune in to the chase accounts and awesome storm photos from Wunderblogger Mike Theiss. After today, it appears the severe weather outbreak will finally diminish, with only a slight risk of severe weather expected Tuesday, and no severe weather expected Wednesday.
Possible development in the Western Caribbean or Eastern Pacific late this week
For the past 3-6 days, our most reliable global computer weather forecast models have been predicting the development of a low pressure system near or over Central America by Friday of this week. Given the persistence in the models in developing this low, we need to be alert to the possibility of a tropical depression forming in either the Western Caribbean or Eastern Pacific, on either side of Costa Rica and Nicaragua. It is uncertain which ocean basin such a storm might form in, and whether or not there will be a tropical wave around to help kick off development. It may be that the low pressure region will stay anchored over land south of the Yucatan Peninsula, preventing any development. This is the solution preferred by the ECMWF model in its last few runs. However, the GFS, NOGAPS, and Canadian models all predict a tropical depression might form in the Western Caribbean near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. In contrast, the UKMET shows development in the Eastern Pacific, on the Pacific side of Central America. Climatologically, May tropical storms are much more common in the Eastern Pacific than the Western Caribbean, so we should not discount the UKMET solution, even though it is an outlier. All five models predict that the Central American low pressure area will move northward towards the Gulf of Mexico, and wind shear may fall enough to allow a tropical depression to form should the low's center emerge over water. I'll be posting daily updates on the situation this week.
Jeff Masters
A large and violent wedge tornado near Quinter, Kansas. Photo Copyright Mike Theiss
Photo of a wallcloud crossing road near lacrosse, Kansas on May 25, 2008. Photo copyight Mike Theiss
These are pictures taken of the storm that went through Forest Lake / Hugo, MN. The tornado passed 3 miles south of us, but we got a pretty vicious shot of hail for about 15 minutes straight. The pictures of bldg damage are west of the worst tornado damage, probably where the funnel cloud was just about to reach the ground.
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You who said we wouldn't get any development until hurricane season!
Nah, just kidding, buddy! It's all good. Only messin. Hell, development isn't even decided yet, and just as I wouldn't be surprised if tropical cyclogenesis DID occur, I would be equally unphased if development DIDN'T occur.
It's pre season until June 1 if you want to get technical.
If something does form, just wait till all the "Is it moving north toward Florida?" "I think Florida will get slammed with this"
LOL, extreme! So true.
I am. I'm being honest, jp.
Since I'm living in Ohio I can honestly say I'm ready lol
eh....i'm not by normal standards i guess. Have a plan but no supplies
lol I know extreme, cant wait for that
I have an interesting question that almost never gets covered here
and BE HONEST
How many of you on this blog are actually ready for hurricane season??
I'm ready ;P
Any comments?
This is around the time when the "future storm" starts developing in the SW Caribbean. Doesn't the GFS contradict itself? Look at all the destructive wind shear in the caribbean.
#1 You are not looking out far enough
#2 You are not seeing that upper level high over Panama
weatherblog, what about the other models, what kind of shear do they predict?
im especially interested in the NOGAPS
The NOGAPS shows a decent upper level anticyclone over the Caribbean in conjunction with the area of low pressure.
My winter started off mild, but was hella cold during January, February, and March. Hell, it was even cold during April. Seriously, this April was one of the coldest I remember in a long time. Because of unusually strong and frequent cold fronts, SSTs throughout the Atlantic basin, especially in the Gulf of Mexico and Carribean Sea, remained well below average for a better part of the Spring. Just recently have they begun to get above average.
Anyway, I'm out all. I'll probably post my first blog of the tropical season tommorow. Later! You guys have a good one!
976. weatherblog 1:21 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
This is around the time when the "future storm" starts developing in the SW Caribbean. Doesn't the GFS contradict itself? Look at all the destructive wind shear in the caribbean.
#1 You are not looking out far enough
#2 You are not seeing that upper level high over Panama
That too.
I have a genny, and a few sheets of ply wood. Will piece the rest together as the season goes. A lot of preparation depends on what you are preparing for.
I have been through a Cat 4, so I have a pretty good idea of what I would be getting in to with most storms. If you don't have a good idea, get your supplies now, and don't be afraid to go heavy on them. Better to have too many then too few.
So yeah BT, I am pretty much in the same boat as you.
As far as water goes, when models start hinting at a system approaching my area four or five days out, I start freezing gallon and 2 liter jugs of water. As the ice melts keeping the food cold, I then have drinking water.
This is NOGAPS prediction at the same time
Here's something to ponder. Say this storm does develop in the EPAC and gets named Alma and maintains it's low center through the Atl Basin. How many years prior had 2 "A" storms since Alma would keep her name and Arthur would be next up in the Atl? And, would that be counted in the Atl. Season totals?
It will be Alma as long as it remain a tropical storm or greater after crossing. If it is a depression or less and re-intensifies over water then it would be named Arthur.
Here's something to ponder. Say this storm does develop in the EPAC and gets named Alma and maintains it's low center through the Atl Basin. How many years prior had 2 "A" storms since Alma would keep her name and Arthur would be next up in the Atl? And, would that be counted in the Atl. Season totals?
I believe that if it maintains it's original low pressure center while moving over land, it would continue to be Alma, and not count toward Atl. season totals.
Weatherblog, the storms themselves create wind shear, which shows up on the models. Often during active periods during the season, you will see pockets of high shear directly over powerful hurricanes. This shear is caused by the storm itself and does not damage the storm. Besides that, let's not get ahead of ourselves. The GFS clearly shows that this will be, if anything, a weak, sheared system.
978. Drakoen 1:22 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
976. weatherblog 1:21 AM GMT on May 27, 2008
This is around the time when the "future storm" starts developing in the SW Caribbean. Doesn't the GFS contradict itself? Look at all the destructive wind shear in the caribbean.
#1 You are not looking out far enough
#2 You are not seeing that upper level high over Panama
I see what you guys are saying (still learning about these things lol). It makes sense.
But, I was just trying to point out the shear in the general area doesn't look too helpful to any system that might form. But, I guess there are other factors to take in too as you guys mentioned.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
9:00 AM JST May 27 2008
At 0:00am UTC, Tropical Depression [1008 hPa] located near 13.7N 138.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. The depression is reported moving northwest at 10 knots.
Forecast and Intensity
==========================
24 HRS: 14.7N 137.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Viewing: 951 - 1001
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