Jet stream moved northwards 270 miles in 22 years; climate change to blame?
Climate change is forcing the jet stream higher and closer to the pole in both the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, according research published this April in the journal Geophysical Research Letters. In their paper, "Historical trends in the jet streams", researchers Cristina Archer and Ken Caldeira of Stanford's Carnegie Institution of Washington analyzed data from 1979-2001, and found that the Northern Hemisphere jet stream moved northward at approximately 125 miles per decade (270 miles during the 22-year period of the study). The jet moved higher by 5-23 meters during this period, and the wind speeds decreased by about 1 mph. Archer and Caldeira's study confirms other research showing a poleward movement of the jet stream in recent decades (Fu et al., 2006; Hu and Fu, 2007). All of these changes are consistent with the behavior of the jet stream predicted by global warming theory. For example, Lorenz and DeWeaver (2007) found poleward shifts of the jet stream by 2100 in the forecasts of 15 climate models used to formulate the "official" word on climate, the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) report. However, the authors were careful not to say how much of this shift in the jet stream was due to natural causes versus human-caused climate change. It is unknown if the jet stream has natural decades-long changes in its path that could account for the observed poleward shift.
Figure 1. The jet stream is located where the strongest winds at the top of the troposphere are found (35,000-45,000 feet high, 200-300 mb in pressure).
Archer and Caldeira note that "These changes in jet stream latitude, altitude, and strength have likely affected, and perhaps will continue to affect, the formation and evolution of storms in the mid-latitudes and of hurricanes in the sub-tropical regions." They don't specify what these changes might be. There is very little research that has been done suggesting how changes in the jet stream might affect hurricane formation and strength. One effect we may begin to see in coming decades is a reduction and/or delay in the number of hurricanes that recurve northward out to sea. Recurvature occurs when a hurricane begins to "feel" the westerly winds of the jet stream. As the jet stream continues to move northward and weaken as the globe warms, we can expect that hurricanes moving though the Caribbean will be less likely to recurve, resulting in more hurricane strikes in Mexico and Central America. Unfortunately, the quality of the Atlantic hurricane database for non-U.S. landfalls is not very good, and it will be several decades before we will be able to tell if the number of hurricane landfalls in Mexico and Central America is increasing due to a poleward shift in the jet stream.
References
Fu, Q., C. M. Johanson, J. M. Wallace, and T. Reichler (2006), Enhanced mid-latitude tropospheric warming in satellite measurements, Science, 312, 1179, doi:10.1126/science.1125566.
Hu, Y., and Q. Fu (2007), Observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation since 1979, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Disc., 7, 9367.9384.
Lorenz, D. J., and E. T. DeWeaver (2007), Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D10119, doi:10.1029/2006JD008087.
Jeff Masters
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Anybody have any clue why there has been so many computer malfunctions occuring during the first week in Hurricane Season? We had QuikSCAT just go MIA for a 36-hour period about three days ago, the GFS had computer glitch problems, and now the CIMSS site is down. Talk about timing.
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Global warming.....????????????
and again...if only the "squares" could see the potential in the manufacturing of hemp products, they would see the benefits far outway the "so-called" liabilities.
If we could harness a lightning bolt....that would go a long way to solving energy. Is there not somehting like 1.21 jigga watts in bolt of lightning? LOL!!
Sheri
around 55W should bring rain to the southern windwards tonight!
487, 483, 507, 460, 462, 465, 477......
Sheri
School delays were announced in three counties. The National Weather Service issued a dense smoke advisory until 9 a.m. Friday for Martin, Pitt, Washington, Tyrrell, Beaufort and mainland Hyde counties.
The fire has burned more than 28,000 acres on the Pocosin Lakes National Wildlife Refuge and on adjacent private lands.
It started on private land Sunday with a lightning strike and spread onto the refuge Tuesday.
good flare up with trop wave. it appears that there is a LLC near 10N 56W associated with this ares of disturbed weather. no information on wind shear site down, and quickscat shows nothing at the moment. 500miles east of trinidad still more time for a little more organisation. what is your take on this system
No intent to trump you, in response to 520.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_central_Pacific_cyclone
Track data (unofficial)
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/garyp_mgtcs/nov06tks.txt
Thank a teacher
If are reading it in English
Thank the armed forces.
I thank the vetrans who made blogs like this and freedom possible. I hope all remember thoes who did not make it (3393), 64 years ago today. It is because of them that we enjoy our lives today.
cchs
good flare up with trop wave. it appears that there is a LLC near 10N 56W associated with this ares of disturbed weather. no information on wind shear site down, and quickscat shows nothing at the moment. 500miles east of trinidad still more time for a little more organisation. what is your take on this system
Just based upon the latest satellite imagery, it would appear that there is enough to warrant an invest, but without the wind shear maps and newer data from QuikSCAT (last update on the area occured at 20:23UTC time or about 16 hours ago), it remains difficult to analyze what may be causing this recent convective activity and infant organization as well as the possible future for this wave. When we get in some new data, then we can make a better determination regarding the system.
Sheri
This is all related to the weather via the global warming debate.
Do they still have those "Never mind the dog, beware of owner" signs?
Never mind global warming, beware of high energy prices.
Crude, Natural Gas, & Coal will all go up over time with increasing demand if alternative energy sources are not used. We put all of our energy eggs in one basket with the burning of fossil fuels. Yes, depending on OPEC and the coal cartel is a losing strategy.
I think the best solution is to build a slew of nuclear power plants in the U.S. even if we have to pay for them via a carbon tax. We can work solar, thermal, & wind into the mix as well. The bottom line is we need cheap electricity immune to price shocks related to politics, commodity trading & Wall Street pumping.
486.Not right now I don't...if the CFS model is correct in the strentgh and mean position of the A/B high.
Thanks Storm; You Da Man....So do you think that the A/B high has "set" in place for the Summer yet?............
Lake, how are they geting around the cost of the production? The return numbers I was seeing on Hydro-fuel cells was .06-1; they say that better extraction technologies are becoming available, but it takes large amounts of electricty to produce hydrogen, despite the fact that there are abundant supplies of hydrogen all over the planet.
Where the hell is Emmet Brown and his Mr. Fusion when you need him?
Hey Storm, how you doing? I'm with wannabe; is there any indication as to the position of the A/B high? A "final" position, that is?
Hey Bro....If it does set in place in the relative current postiion, then the "lowriders" will present the greatest threat, and, the "highriders" will generate some fish storms.....IMHO
yes the structure of the wave is getting better with every frame and i quite agree that the system does look like an invest
Hey, wannabe, how you been?
It was my understanding that the high was going to be somewhat weaker and closer to the CONUS for most of the season, meaning considerably less fish storms and more chance of landfalls and near misses...
Been fine (still have a job)and sporting a nice tan from the beach last weekend (and most of the alcohol is out of my system); looking at the charts this am, seems like the A/B high is still positioned in the Central Atlantic (not that close to the US) so we will have to see where it sets; it will make all the difference come August & September.......
Bottom line, we are not running out of crude anytime soon but supplies will be tight unless we find alternative resources.
Did you see Storms tropical analysis earlier,he hinted at the high a little farther south,possibly curving CV ways out to sea,but still too early.
As for the high, position is everything, but a weaker nearer high will make for interesting times on the east coast
that area at 67.3 w/25.8n lacking convection at this time but may flare shortly as well iam wwatchin that area as well
Sheri
I just saw it, NEwx...it is a bit early to make a final determination; the eternal tropical weather "wait and see" conundrum
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