Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

California fires could reach record levels in 2008

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 21:42 GMT le 25 juin 2008

An unusually early and dangerous fire season has hit California, where at least 33 fires burning over a total of 190,000 acres are active, according to the Interagency Fire Center. The fires were sparked over the weekend when an unusually far southward-moving storm system brought numerous thunderstorms to central and northern California. Over 8,000 lightning strikes hit the region. Most of these strikes were not accompanied by rain, since a very dry atmosphere at low levels caused much of the thunderstorm rain to evaporate before reaching the surface. The lightning strikes ignited an unusual number of fires, due to exceptionally dry vegetation in California. This year, the state experienced its driest spring season (March-April-May) since record keeping began in 1895, and much of the state is in moderate to severe drought.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft on Monday, June 23, 2008, showing smoke from hundreds of wildfires sparked by lightning in California. The red regions show where the satellite's sensor detected fires burning. The smoke has created air pollution levels in excess of the federal standards for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over much of California's Central Valley. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast
With the dry season only beginning, it could be a record fire year in California. Even before last weekend's lightning storms, California had already seen an unusually large number of destructive wildfires, according to CalFire--90,000 acres had burned, compared to 42,000 acres during the same period last year. It is not unusual for large portions of the state to receive no rain at all in July and August, such as occurred last year (Figure 2). The jet stream typically moves far enough north in summer that the migrating low pressure systems that bring California most of its rain only hit the northernmost portions of the state. With high fuel levels due to a century of misguided fire suppression efforts, moderate to severe drought gripping the state, no rain in sight for months to come, and an above-normal chance of warmer than average temperatures forecast this summer for the state by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, expect a record fire season in California.

Figure 2. Observed precipitation over California during 2007. Much of the state received no rain at all during July and August, which is a common occurrence. A little bit of thunderstorm activity did make it into the easternmost portion of the state, thanks to moisture flowing north-westward from the Arizona Monsoon. However, the Sierra Mountains block this moisture from reaching the central and western portions of the state. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days. Beyond a week from now, the GFS is hinting that the region off the coast of Africa could see some development, but it is still probably too early for this too occur, despite warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the region.

Jeff Masters

San Bruno Mountain Fire - Cresting the Ridge (ajkimoto)

Photo taken as the fire crested the ridge of San Bruno Mountain

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Categories: Fire

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801. thelmores 00:47 GMT le 27 juin 2008
787.... True..... Will be interesting to watch the next several days..... definately a HUGE wave over central Africa! Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

802. JLPR2 00:48 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Whys the TCHP decreasing?? hey yeah whats up with that? Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 7487

803. Patrap 00:48 GMT le 27 juin 2008
95E.INVEST 26 JUN 2008 2345Z Link Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

804. pearlandaggie 00:48 GMT le 27 juin 2008
795. maybe you need something stronger.... Member Since: 14 septembre 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

805. TampaSpin 00:49 GMT le 27 juin 2008
796. PanhandleChuck 8:46 PM EDT on June 26, 2008 Panhandle you got a surface low heading at you that is having a shear problem......just to make you aware. Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

806. KoritheMan 00:49 GMT le 27 juin 2008
hi . KoritheMan do you think 92L will pop up in the gulf??? Don't you mean 91L? AFAIK, we've only had one invest, which became Arthur. And maybe. There's certainly a chance. Member Since: 7 Mars 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418

807. thelmores 00:49 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Hey Pat..... how big is your "favorites"??? About 2GB? lol Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

808. PanhandleChuck 00:50 GMT le 27 juin 2008
I hope the storms hold off tomorrow, I'm flying to Ohio through Atlanta :( Member Since: 13 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

810. melwerle 00:51 GMT le 27 juin 2008
too funny - i don't think i've seen so much solidarity against a troll before on this blog...keep up the good work everyone! Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

811. Patrap 00:51 GMT le 27 juin 2008
For those who dont have the guy or person on ignore. Ya ruining the experience for the rest of us here. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

813. Stormchaser2007 00:51 GMT le 27 juin 2008
806. 90L was Arthur....91L was in the CATL. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243

814. KoritheMan 00:51 GMT le 27 juin 2008
As for the TCHP decreasing, that is a mystery to me. However, it seems that in that last loop (June 25), it has increased again near the northern and northeastern coast of Jamaica. Member Since: 7 Mars 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418

815. TheWeatherMan504 00:51 GMT le 27 juin 2008
806. KoritheMan 12:49 AM GMT on June 27, 2008 hi . KoritheMan do you think 92L will pop up in the gulf??? Don't you mean 91L? AFAIK, we've only had one invest, which became Arthur. And maybe. There's certainly a chance. We had 91L which made landfall in South America Member Since: 18 mai 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1037

816. PanhandleChuck 00:52 GMT le 27 juin 2008
805. TampaSpin Thanks Tampa.... Just gonna be a little stormy around here for a couple of days Member Since: 13 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

817. catastropheadjuster 00:52 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Hey Aquak How ya doing today. It's been such a nice day. I see I see. Sheri Member Since: 24 août 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3556

818. KoritheMan 00:52 GMT le 27 juin 2008
90L was Arthur....91L was in the CATL. Oh right. I forgot about that wave in the CATL that became 91L. I don't see how, though! My brain is deteriorating, perhaps? XD Member Since: 7 Mars 2007 Posts: 408 Comments: 15418

819. hurricane23 00:53 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Evening! Not really buying into good old GFS calling for development out in the eastern atlantic in the coming days.It shows an upper anticyclone moving right with the system before it gets picked up.Iam looking for more model support personally but i will say this development close to home seems more probable as an MJO pulse makes its way into the region in the next week or two.You can see whats already taking shape in the e-pac with our 2 systems trying to spin up.Overall it should be interesting to see what happens. Member Since: 14 mai 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13274

821. zoomiami 00:53 GMT le 27 juin 2008
TS - thats priceless Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4064

822. Patrap 00:53 GMT le 27 juin 2008
I have Favs and Links that Make Dick Cheney wince. LOL Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

823. thelmores 00:53 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Chuck, hopefully its early morning..... afternoon could be Tstorm's and delays! :( Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

824. melwerle 00:54 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Patrap - always the voice of reason...bless you. Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

827. thelmores 00:56 GMT le 27 juin 2008
23, look at 764.... for what its worth, the CMC is on board with the GFS..... Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

828. TheWeatherMan504 00:56 GMT le 27 juin 2008
KoritheMan you forgot because its tropicaldisscuses fault. Member Since: 18 mai 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1037

829. PanhandleChuck 00:56 GMT le 27 juin 2008
823. thelmores Chuck, hopefully its early morning..... afternoon could be Tstorm's and delays! :( Fly out of P-Cola at 10 am then a 4 hour lay over in dreaded Atlanta Member Since: 13 mai 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1183

830. melwerle 00:57 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Hey Tampa - too funny - was teaching my daughter those moves today (she never heard of "air guitar"...go figure. However, I think it was David Lee Roth that was on the radio..."hot for teacher" "i don't FEEL tardy..." Member Since: 28 juin 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837

831. Patrap 00:58 GMT le 27 juin 2008
NCOF Global SST Intercomparison Overview This page shows the differences between daily sea surface temperature (SST) analyses and also differences between the median SST and multiyear means for the same time of year (climatology). SST Ensemble Intercomparison Statistics Link Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

833. hurricane23 00:59 GMT le 27 juin 2008
827. thelmores 8:56 PM EDT on June 26, 2008 23, look at 764.... for what its worth, the CMC is on board with the GFS..... CMC... Thats funny.Again i need to see more signficant model support before i even begin to buy into that idea in late june. Member Since: 14 mai 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13274

834. Patrap 01:00 GMT le 27 juin 2008
WunderBlogs - Dr. Masters' Blog Content Rules From WunderWiki Jump to: navigation, search Due to the high amount of traffic that Dr. Masters' blog receives, a special community standard has been established for the blog. The following list comprises the "Rules of the Road" for Dr. Masters' blog. 1. Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short. 2. Stay on topic. 3. No monomania. 4. No hot linking external or copyright images without the image owner's permission. 5. Do not circumvent a ban. Most bans last 24 hours or less, please accept the ban. If you create a new username to circumvent a ban, you will be blocked from the site completely. 6. No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X". 7. Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space. 8. No spamming. 9. No spamming. 10. Seriously, no spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly. Tips Do not enter games of oneupmanship with trolls or bloggers you find to be annoying. You will be banned along side them, as your verbal jousts consume the space and time everyone else is sharing. If you come across a troll or another blogger whom you find to be irritating, please use the site reporting tools and your ignore list. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

835. thelmores 01:01 GMT le 27 juin 2008
833.... Well..... thought that might get a chuckle! LOL Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

836. pearlandaggie 01:01 GMT le 27 juin 2008
look at the SST animation...the retreat is showing up in SSTs as well Member Since: 14 septembre 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

837. presslord 01:01 GMT le 27 juin 2008
went flying along the coast with my 17 year old son this afternoon....it was beautiful....he soloed at 16 last year...just got liscensed...he practiced 'stalls' out over the Atlantic just to show me how cool he is....I hate him.... Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

838. pearlandaggie 01:03 GMT le 27 juin 2008
sea surface height anomaly... Member Since: 14 septembre 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

839. thelmores 01:04 GMT le 27 juin 2008
837... Introduce him to flight sim if he keeps showing out! LOL Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

840. Stormchaser2007 01:04 GMT le 27 juin 2008
95EINVEST.25kts-1009mb- 94EINVEST.25kts-1007mb TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 PM PDT THU JUN 26 2008 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 570 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...IS ACCOMPANIED BY LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15243

841. TampaSpin 01:04 GMT le 27 juin 2008
834. Patrap 9:00 PM EDT on June 26, 2008 I agree 100% Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 175 Comments: 19747

842. CybrTeddy 01:05 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Yep, that wave over Central Africa, has to be what the GFS been predicting, with the other models. I think Drakeon, as well with some other people on here, that July might be an turning point. I think judging by right now, that if a System were to go past the Antilles, that it would head into a path very similar to Hurricane Dean. Not saying it will be a Monster like Dean, although I wouldn't be suprised to see a CAT 5 this year. Not Wishcasting. Member Since: 8 juillet 2005 Posts: 253 Comments: 20201

843. thelmores 01:05 GMT le 27 juin 2008
836.... Whats causing that?? from 40w to almost 50w?? Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

844. Patrap 01:07 GMT le 27 juin 2008
I enjoy taking my Old 98 MS Flight Simulator up to round 60,000 ft in the 737 Like over Mobile Bay. Then Cut the engines to the 737 and try to Grease her in with dead reckoning Like a Shuttle and land at MSY New Orleans, Its a Blast cept when I miss and Wind up in the swamp. But the replay angles are a riot! Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 370 Comments: 111244

845. pearlandaggie 01:07 GMT le 27 juin 2008
843. helifino! LOL could it have something to do with the AMO? Member Since: 14 septembre 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

846. JLPR 01:08 GMT le 27 juin 2008
wow =O If we had two invests in the atlantic like 95E and 94E some people would be freaking out in this blog lol =D Member Since: 4 septembre 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223

847. presslord 01:08 GMT le 27 juin 2008
I tried to make him a sailor...but his passion is drilling holes in the sky..... Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10377

849. extreme236 01:09 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Most recent dvorak estimates: T2.0/2.0 95E -- East Pacific Ocean T2.0/2.0 94E -- East Pacific Ocean Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

850. pearlandaggie 01:10 GMT le 27 juin 2008
843. look at the sharp contrast around 15N 40W...like it's not well mixed or there's an intrusion of cold water from the east... Member Since: 14 septembre 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 3963

851. thelmores 01:10 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Pat..... remind me to not go flyin with you? LOL On another topic, is it true that there was a report that said the levy's down your way wouldn't hold up to anything above a cat 2? Why can't we copy what the Dutch have done?? I just hate doing things half @$$! Promises made.... but apparently not kept! Member Since: 8 septembre 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3748

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