Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

California fires could reach record levels in 2008

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 21:42 GMT le 25 juin 2008

An unusually early and dangerous fire season has hit California, where at least 33 fires burning over a total of 190,000 acres are active, according to the Interagency Fire Center. The fires were sparked over the weekend when an unusually far southward-moving storm system brought numerous thunderstorms to central and northern California. Over 8,000 lightning strikes hit the region. Most of these strikes were not accompanied by rain, since a very dry atmosphere at low levels caused much of the thunderstorm rain to evaporate before reaching the surface. The lightning strikes ignited an unusual number of fires, due to exceptionally dry vegetation in California. This year, the state experienced its driest spring season (March-April-May) since record keeping began in 1895, and much of the state is in moderate to severe drought.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft on Monday, June 23, 2008, showing smoke from hundreds of wildfires sparked by lightning in California. The red regions show where the satellite's sensor detected fires burning. The smoke has created air pollution levels in excess of the federal standards for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over much of California's Central Valley. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast
With the dry season only beginning, it could be a record fire year in California. Even before last weekend's lightning storms, California had already seen an unusually large number of destructive wildfires, according to CalFire--90,000 acres had burned, compared to 42,000 acres during the same period last year. It is not unusual for large portions of the state to receive no rain at all in July and August, such as occurred last year (Figure 2). The jet stream typically moves far enough north in summer that the migrating low pressure systems that bring California most of its rain only hit the northernmost portions of the state. With high fuel levels due to a century of misguided fire suppression efforts, moderate to severe drought gripping the state, no rain in sight for months to come, and an above-normal chance of warmer than average temperatures forecast this summer for the state by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, expect a record fire season in California.

Figure 2. Observed precipitation over California during 2007. Much of the state received no rain at all during July and August, which is a common occurrence. A little bit of thunderstorm activity did make it into the easternmost portion of the state, thanks to moisture flowing north-westward from the Arizona Monsoon. However, the Sierra Mountains block this moisture from reaching the central and western portions of the state. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days. Beyond a week from now, the GFS is hinting that the region off the coast of Africa could see some development, but it is still probably too early for this too occur, despite warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the region.

Jeff Masters

San Bruno Mountain Fire - Cresting the Ridge (ajkimoto)

Photo taken as the fire crested the ridge of San Bruno Mountain

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951. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 02:55 GMT le 27 juin 2008
its like seeing rats leave a ship before departing the port listen to the rats dont go on ship its never going to make it the rats already know this thats why there leaving Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40559

952. Patrap 02:56 GMT le 27 juin 2008
LOL..they must be Lurking Baja.. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

953. kmanislander 02:59 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Even in Ivan back in 04 Pat when we had no power and the island was underwater we followed how the wind was swinging in order to determine whether we were likely to get the eye or whether it had passed to the South. As events transpired, the eye was only 20 miles South and we spent many hours within the NE eyewall when sustained winds were 150 MPH,something you only want to experience once in a life time ! Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

954. BajaALemt 03:00 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Man!! I'll bet they ARE! lol!! Maybe they just got up to pee? laffs

955. Patrap 03:05 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Nothing like a right front Quad Kman Nothing , like a eyewall to bring the Ol Adrenaline up to peak. Elena in 85 was my Hairiest though. Went thru her in Long Beach,Gulfport,Miss. She dropped an EF-2 Twister that hopped over us,and slammed into the Public Shelter during the front side..High School Gym took the hit though,No injuries Luckily,but the Seabees went in during the EYE and got them folks out in Amtracks and to the Seabee Base right there on Pass Road. sandcrab remembers that one. We stayed at our Apt luckily. Bumpy Backside..real Bumpy.. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

956. Patrap 03:07 GMT le 27 juin 2008
I could see Ivans towers and curve from Nola here as she impacted to the East..was close. Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

957. BajaALemt 03:10 GMT le 27 juin 2008
We got a little taste of the upper right quad for Ivan in PCB. Looked out my front door and the sky was the sickliest color I've ever seen...then it got big, and black. I thought...WTH? When things started cracking and exploding I KNEW what it was and ran for my downstairs bathroom. The 'nader was alot worse than Ivan was (here).

958. kmanislander 03:16 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Well let's hope this is a calmer gentler season !!. My landscaping is just looking good again LOL I'm out for tonight folks. Gnite all Member Since: 19 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 14939

959. BajaALemt 03:17 GMT le 27 juin 2008
nite Kman

960. 0741 03:24 GMT le 27 juin 2008
anyone have link to long range gfs? i seen the one that go untill july 8

961. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 03:27 GMT le 27 juin 2008
later kman Member Since: 15 juillet 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40559

962. BajaALemt 03:28 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Link

963. BajaALemt 03:30 GMT le 27 juin 2008
LOL ..I think you wanted the link to the BIG picture and not the little one, huh? laffs

964. 0741 03:33 GMT le 27 juin 2008
962. BajaALemt 3:28 AM GMT on June 27, 2008 Link which one show gfs all way to afica??? the one i saw is only near usa

966. Stormchaser2007 03:40 GMT le 27 juin 2008
965. Its just coming off now! Link Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

967. BajaALemt 03:42 GMT le 27 juin 2008
This is the only other one I have shrugs Link Someone else surely has the one that shows africa too (I like this one I have..it's BIG and I can SEE it..lol)

968. BajaALemt 03:43 GMT le 27 juin 2008
lol, ok..same thing

969. 0741 03:53 GMT le 27 juin 2008
thank you

971. HadesGodWyvern 03:57 GMT le 27 juin 2008
area of convection (95E) located near 12.2N 120.2W or 870 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Recent animated METSAT Imagery indicates consolidating convection over a low level circulation center. A ASCAT PASS depicts a well defined low level circulation center with 25-30 knot unflagged weasterly winds south of the circulation. Upper elvel analysis shows low vertical wind shear and good diffluence aloft with an upper level trough to the north further enhancing poleward outflow. Maximum sustianed winds near the center is 22-27 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1008 MB. Due to the improved consolidation of the low level circulation and good upper level support, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD. Member Since: 24 mai 2006 Posts: 43 Comments: 36686

972. yamil20 04:02 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Link jfv try this one. Member Since: 10 juin 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 478

973. Stormchaser2007 04:07 GMT le 27 juin 2008
970. JFV name a male hurricane that amazed you?? Look through these... Alphabetical list of retired names Agnes 1972 Alicia 1983 Allen 1980 Allison 2001 Andrew 1992 Anita 1977 Audrey 1957 Betsy 1965 Beulah 1967 Bob 1991 Camille 1969 Carla 1961 Carmen 1974 Carol 1954 Celia 1970 Cesar 1996 Charley 2004 Cleo 1964 Connie 1955 David 1979 Dean 2007 Dennis 2005 Diana 1990 Diane 1955 Donna 1960 Dora 1964 Edna 1968 Elena 1985 Eloise 1975 Fabian 2003 Felix 2007 Fifi 1974 Flora 1963 Floyd 1999 Fran 1996 Frances 2004 Frederic 1979 Georges 1998 Gilbert 1988 Gloria 1985 Hattie 1961 Hazel 1954 Hilda 1964 Hortense 1996 Hugo 1989 Inez 1966 Ione 1955 Iris 2001 Isabel 2003 Isidore 2002 Ivan 2004 Janet 1955 Jeanne 2004 Joan 1988 Juan 2003 Katrina 2005 Keith 2000 Klaus 1990 Lenny 1999 Lili 2002 Luis 1995 Marilyn 1995 Michelle 2001 Mitch 1998 Noel 2007 Opal 1995 Rita 2005 Roxanne 1995 Stan 2005 Wilma 2005 Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

974. Patrap 04:10 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

975. catastropheadjuster 04:17 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Patrap that's a pretty neat picture. It shows alot. Sheri Member Since: 24 août 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3556

976. Patrap 04:18 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Found that one and wondered how it got overlooked Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

977. Patrap 04:20 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Effects of Vertical Wind Shear on Developing Canes Link Notice the Date and tone of this one from NOAA Link Almost Spookie now Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 371 Comments: 111503

978. Stormchaser2007 04:32 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Wow...nice wave! Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

979. catastropheadjuster 04:35 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Pat- I really hope we never see another 2005, I live in Lower Alabama, well Mobile right outside of it. It was he?? over here and i just can't imagine in my head how bad it was for you all. When they showed that one man on tv with his kids and his wife said to save the kids and let her go or however it went, I cried so bad and the super dome it was just sickining. We had it pretty rough over her to. Our shop went under water. it was bad. Sheri Member Since: 24 août 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3556

980. catastropheadjuster 04:36 GMT le 27 juin 2008
SC2007- hey what cha think about the wave. I know it's to early, just wondering Sheri Member Since: 24 août 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3556

981. catastropheadjuster 04:42 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Well i guess everyones gone to bed. One question has anyone heard from Floodman? I think he had some test done the other day, he was on here but wasn'tfeeling to good. I was just wondering. Sheri Member Since: 24 août 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3556

982. Stormchaser2007 04:46 GMT le 27 juin 2008
980. Well Sheri that image is about 6 hours old so the waves convection is gone...but fer this time of year its impressive none the least. Well im headed out to a bachelor party.....see yall later Sheri and Pat. Oh yeah good night lurkers!! Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

983. catastropheadjuster 04:51 GMT le 27 juin 2008
SC2007 Have fun, be careful. Sheri Member Since: 24 août 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3556

984. Stormchaser2007 05:21 GMT le 27 juin 2008
983.Thanks I will!! Have a Good night! Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15248

985. 7544 05:53 GMT le 27 juin 2008
new wave off africa is it arriving early then expected and its looking very good could the lull be over Link Member Since: 6 mai 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5925

986. jabjb2 06:16 GMT le 27 juin 2008
conditions look to be favorable in that area we will just have to wait and see. Member Since: 9 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6

987. stoormfury 10:06 GMT le 27 juin 2008
morning an area of disturbed weather is associated with a tropical wave few hunderd miles sw of the cape verde islands. there appears to be a mid level circulation near 6n 35w. there is also good outflow from the nw of the system. shear and sst is favourable in the area and the system should gradually organised as it moves westward. the QS nor the ASCAT were not available and will have to wait a little later to see if a surface is low forming with the system Member Since: 22 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2303

988. IKE 10:14 GMT le 27 juin 2008
00Z ECMWFLink Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

990. stoormfury 10:23 GMT le 27 juin 2008
i cannot find any worthwhile shear maps ahead of thr eatl system. also waiting for visible sat pics of the area Member Since: 22 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2303

992. extreme236 10:47 GMT le 27 juin 2008
989. That doesn't matter. You see, climo says that development shouldn't occur until about August out there because conditions aren't normally favorable. But currently, shear is low and SSTs are above average and there is low dust. So the factors are there. Just because Climo says it can't happen doesn't mean and won't. Look at Hurricane Bertha in 1996. It happened there. Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

993. stoormfury 10:54 GMT le 27 juin 2008
that is right people like to stick to tradition. hurricane ivan was a typical example for hurricane to form so far out in the alt and south of 10deg N. this system is in the same position as ivan except it is juns and ivan was in sept. climatology is a guide but not gospel Member Since: 22 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2303

995. IKE 11:28 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Near 8 N and 36 W is a nice spin...shear is under 20 knots.... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37044

996. TheWeatherMan504 11:34 GMT le 27 juin 2008
I think an area of low pressure is trying to develop off the coast of belize. Member Since: 18 mai 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1037

997. stoormfury 11:34 GMT le 27 juin 2008
IKE have you seen any shear maps ahead of the system Member Since: 22 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2303

998. stormdude77 11:39 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Morning all Nice flare up of convection around 7N, 34W. Some slow development is even ''possible'' here, as SSTs are hot enough, not to much dry air around, (good outflow pattern to the NW), and there's an anticyclone futher west of the wave...the only inhibiting factor is that it's to far south...

999. stormdude77 11:45 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Shear map...Link

1000. BahaHurican 11:49 GMT le 27 juin 2008
Morning everybody. Gotta go to work this morning :( Weather here is great, though LOL . .. Member Since: 25 octobre 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 17661

1001. extreme236 11:50 GMT le 27 juin 2008
I notice there isn't a tropical wave associated with that convection near 35W. It's probably just some ITCZ convection that will be gone by later today or tomorrow. Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

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