Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Ferries have a drive on deck that can be accessed either from the bow or stern or both. From the images I have seen of this vessel it looks as if vehicles were only capable of entering the vessel from the stern.

Some years ago a North Sea ferry sank coming out of Hollnd when the sea breached the bow doors but it would seem that this tragedy was ultimately the result of a vessel being overcome by the elements, then running aground, holing the hull.

Good evening all. Kman is correct in his analysis of the ferry sinking IMO
Frankly, there are very few ships that will survive typhoon or hurricane conditions, with no engine power.
A cargo ship, or a tanker, both fully loaded and deep in the water would have a chance. But a passenger boat with shallow draft, no hope.
Very tragic.

Good evening folks. The topic of Dr. Masters blog is actually one that I studied heavily in a masters level course during my masters studies. That is forests, fire, and the "misguided" fire suppression of the last century.

It is ridiculous to put out all these fires that are started naturally. It is ridiculous to even bother protecting the homes of the multimillionaires that throw up a pile of tinder in the middle of these areas that are rife with fuel, plant a bunch of weeds right up to the front door, and then cry foul to the insurance company when the firefighters aren't able to protect it. First of all, educate yourself just slightly. Keep the fuel way back from the house. Build with fireproof or at least highly resistant materials such as clay roof tiles and stucco or plaster exterior. Screen your vents with a fine mesh screen. If the fabulous view is that important, learn how to protect it.

Next rant, same topic.

The federal government knows its mistake. In this months National Geographic there was absolutely nothing new presented in an article regarding the Western Fires that I wasn't taught in the grad class. The problem is well documented. The Ponderosa Pine forests were once very scattered, mature trees, with lots of grass between. The Ponderosa is a fire adapted tree. When the fire is suppressed, the density of the trees increases, as well as the fuel on the ground. When you have ripe conditions, and everything goes up... EVERYTHING goes up, you get a "crown fire" that leaps from treetop to treetop and this kind of fire gets hot enough at ground level that the soil is sterilized. This isn't the gentle fire that just burns off the leaf litter and some of the small scrub bushes that run a full life cycle in a matter of 3 to 5 years. No we get slate wipers that kill everything including mature trees when you suppress fires for 30 years.

My message to the firefighters is to scream that old song from the early 90's to let the blankety blank burn! Let the fuel return its nutrients to the cycle and start the cycle again. Yes, there will be a short term increase in stream turbidity from the exposed soils. Yes there will be a great loss of wildlife that is unable to escape. However, this will all be replaced with greater speed than any of the so called environmentalists could ever imagine. There are plenty of seeds there that will sprout and replace what is lost.

end of rant - eager for responses to discuss

Many years ago the QE2 was making an Atlantic crossing and ran into a severe North Sea Gale. The waves tore off the deck rail and life boats on the bridge deck which is several stories above sea level.The passengers had to eat sandwiches for 3 days because the weather was too bad to use the stoves for cooking.

Reports from the Captain of the vessel said the wave was 30 meters high and struck at 2:30 a.m. !

The ocean is a harsh mistress at times.

Point taken, Power.
There are indeed forests that are "designed" to burn, and left alone would burn on a pretty regular basis, without doing any real damage at all. In fact, fire will remove a build-up of flamable ( and in the case of pine, almost explosive) material from the forest floor.

Its hard on the beasties and such, but they will certainly learn, adapt, evolve and survive, as they did before we came along to help them. ( lol)

The same is not true for tropical forest though. There is no such thing as "dry" lightening in the tropics, as you probably know.
, and fire is a serious problem in forest environments in the tropics.
Not dissagreeing, just making a point.

I'm out.
Sleep is a-callin'.

I don't know too much about fires but certainly out in California people seem to have built in areas that burn every year. The great view from the hills and the privacy of being out in the natural environment surrounded by acres of your own land comes with a price

So long Pottery.

Next week has been forecasted by some on the blog to be the turning point in the season.

Even fire in a tropical forest can be beneficial. Depending on what type of tropical environment you are referring to. If we are speaking of a a savannah type environment, fire is absolutely necessary to maintain the savannah, otherwise you would have forest. In a tropical rainforest, yes of course fire would be quite damaging, but without the occasional drought allowing a fire, conditions become stagnant. Think of the tepuis of Venezuela and Guiana. These environs have changed very little for tens of thousands of years. Being near equatorial and geologically isolated for what is probably millions of years, receiving moisture from both latitute and altitude enduced rains, the creatures there are genetically isolated from many of their relatives at lower altitudes.

One can not immediately invisage a tropical rainforest when thinking of "tropics" as that term can be interpreted as either climatalogical lack of a subfreezing temperature every year (south Florida) or the region between the tropics of Cancer and Capricorn.

I'm out for tonight myself.

Just a footnote to say that I had two uncles go down on ships in storms. One was on a trawler in the North Sea and another was on a ship whose cargo shifted in a storm resulting in the loss of the vessel.

Caymanians have lost many to the sea and have learned to respect it as a consequence.

Good night all

power,
Not tryin to get into the GW debate, but your point is well made. We have gone through the same debate in British Columbia fot he past umpteen years. Conclusion was not only to let nature take it's course, in some cases, but to to give it a little kick in others. Pine beetles and such have decimated the once green forests of this province and IMHO,let nature take it's course, Damn those that build in areas that are prone to natural disaster. Like building next to an airport or railway and then bi%%n about the noise.
End of rant.

My discussion has absolutely nothing to do with GW, AnthroGW, etc. It's about anthropogenic intervention in a natural process. Some may argue an anglo intervention in processes that though weather/environmental, were helped along by the previous primary Homo s. inhabitants of this continent.

Just as the native Amer. used fire on the plains, the tribals of Africa use flame on the great savannahs of that continent. It has shaped the landscape for such a great length of time that the wildlife numbers and balances are shaped by that use of fire to alter the vegetation to increase the numbers of the desired game. Grasslands tends to increase the numbers of ungulates (hooved animals). Grasslands are also easier to hunt.

Well, in the western US, fire is primarily initiated by dry lightning, i.e. lightning strikes during virga showers. So this is an environment that could conceivably have evolved sans any anthro intervention.

Again point well taken. Man from time immortal tho has woked to no ends to change the enviorment with little regard to conciquence.
This is not about GW....this is about our inability as a species, in many cases, to understand our surrounding and work to the best of our ability to maintain the status quo, God knows were supposed to be the smart ones. My main point is that we chose to alter the enviorment and then when things go wrong ....start pointing the finger. Instead of taking the responsibility.

I'm off to bed, I'm pretty good about reading backlog before starting to respond or jump in discussions. Sweet Dreams all.

Way to much Shear for anything to develop now.......It will probably be at least 7 days before some of this shear relaxes.

Look at the little spin south of Orlando.

Back to watching AVP Requiem.

Google earth view of the wave that should be on the coast of Africa and the one inside =)

Is kind of funny how far the so called anti-emvironmentalist go to try to proof their points. If you don't like Dr. Marters scientific points of view, see what you can do about it. Im pretty sure he will continue to provide the public with the proper scientific information, despite the little political issues that some try to hide behind anthropological arguments.

We pretty much have TD2 E

JLPR - that's cool - I have never seen the Curr gen Prob maps with any colours above the leaf green. Wow!

Everyone, check off the Yucatan, I think that may be what the NAM was predicting, it a Big blob of rain and what not.

The NAM is crazy.....nothing can form on the eastern side of that ULL in the gulf. The upper-air environment is not even close to conducive right now. Those thunderstorms near the Yucatan are just a normal result of upper divergence on the SE side of the ULL.

Anybody awake out there in hurricaneland?

I think we could see something to watch in the Atlantic within 10-20days...

Levi, this isnt just from an ULL, its from an interacting tropical wave, the one we was watching
last week. This is how Arlene was formed i think.

Really big blowups now in the GOM

Is this a form of a weak circulation near 24n 93w check it out

Link

An invest in the gulf????

The tropical Atlantic continues to be relatively quiet and is expected to stay this way straight through this weekend with no tropical cyclones expected to form through this weekend. However, there are signs now showing up that the "switch" may be turned on next week, especially in the eastern Atlantic as the African wave train may begin earlier than normal this year. The GFS model in particular continues to forecast the development of a low pressure system off of the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday and then forecasts it to track west to west-northwestward through the eastern Atlantic during the middle to later part of next week. After that, the GFS model forecasts at least one more low pressure system to form off of the African coast during the fourth of July weekend and forecasts quite a bit of activity in the way of tropical waves and tropical disturbances in the eastern Atlantic over at least the next 10 to 14 days.

Now let's take a look at whether there is model support for the tropical low pressure system that is forecast to form next week and whether the GFS model forecast is actually plausible. At this point, only the European model supports this development as the Euro models forecasts the development of a low pressure system near the coast of Africa during the mid to late part of next week.

My feeling on this is that it is the GFS model forecast is a plausible scenario as the tropical disturbances have been quite strong as they come off of Africa. It has been this way for the past few weeks. Also, the sea surface temperatures near the coast of Africa have been warmer than normal this year. So, at this point, there is really nothing else to do or say except to watch the various model output and the real-time weather patterns and compare them over the coming days. I will particularly be watching for model consistency and model support to see if this scenario continues to be forecast.

In conclusion, tropical cyclone development is not expected through Sunday. Then, we may have to really turn our eyes eastward towards the eastern Atlantic and off of the African coast next week for the possibility of tropical cyclone development.

invest??? i don't know . i have to see some more sat pics of the area. although MSLP is dropping slightly, wind shear is still high in the area

Regarding the value of long range GFS runs:

The noteworthy item is the persistent development of several fairly strong t-waves at 700mb leaving the African coast at a higher latitude then all the other early waves we have seen so far. Also showing some northward creep of the ITCZ.

This is normal and denotes a change in the pattern. Cooler SST's, SAL, shear, and the east to west strength of the subtropical ridge are still factors that should or could limit development. It is possibly a signpost of the season.

In that respect, the persistence of the GFS model runs and the strength of the waves depicted are certainly worth notice. I don't think too many folks are forecasting 3 CAT 5 EATL hurricanes yet.

Link

6z GFS at it again Ike good Morning.

JP, the twaves modeled by the GFS are moving NW towards cooler SST's. (edit-changed NE to NW-duh)

The point I threw out there was the appearance of strong waves leaving Africa N of 10N.

Agree/Disagree on that point only if you will.

From the 8:05 am EDST Atlantic tropical weather discussion...

"Gulf of Mexico...
a shortwave trough continues to lie over the Gulf stretching
from the Mississippi River Delta area in Louisiana to the Bay of
Campeche and The Isthmus of Tehuantepec. An upper level ridge
extends from the NW Caribbean over the remainder of the Gulf
region into the W Atlc to over South Florida and the NW Bahamas.
Swly upper flow between these two upper level features is
supplying the E Gulf and Florida with an abundance of tropical
moisture. These diffluent upper winds are enhancing convection
over the Yucatan Peninsula and sern Gulf waters. Lightning data
indicates scattered showers and tstms across the Yucatan
Peninsula extending northeastward across the sern Gulf E of 91w
and S of 27n. A weak surface ridge extends from the W Atlc over
nrn Florida and the nrn Gulf with a 1024 mb high centered near
32n69w. Under this pattern...E to se winds of 10-15 kt are
observed across the Gulf with a narrow band of 15-20 kt over The
Straits of Florida and the se portion of the Gulf. The surface
ridge is forecast to remain in place through the weekend."

Ike, whats your opinion on the Blob in the gulf?

From Tallahassee,FL....

"Short term...
(today through saturday) the 00 UTC GFS/NAM and 12 UTC Wednesday
European model (ecmwf) all forecast abundant deep layer moisture over our area...as
we remain under southwest flow aloft between the aforementioned
trough over the western Gulf and the western extent of the Bermuda
high to our south and east. With favorable thermodynamics and
onshore winds in the 1000-700 mb layer...we expect scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. The
best chance for rain appears to be Friday afternoon...when the
thermodynamics appear most favorable. The NAM continues to forecast
surface cyclogenesis over the southeast Gulf beginning
tonight...then takes the low ashore around Destin Florida Friday night.
For the first time the GFS shows some cyclogenesis as well...but
much weaker than the NAM. The 21 UTC Wednesday sref ensemble mean
and 12 UTC European model (ecmwf) Wednesday European model (ecmwf) do not support these solutions. For
this forecast package we continued to not use the NAM...and favored
a blend of the GFS and sref. As is usually the case this time of
year...a few storms could be briefly strong to severe with
marginally severe hail and/or wet microbursts."

Good morning everyone...

just looked at some of the pics from noaa..what's that stuff off of sw florida? Just moisture or something to worry about?

Sailing in Jax this weekend and I don't want to bother going if it's going to be yucky this weekend. Not fond of sailing in tstorms...

142. CybrTeddy 6:09 AM CDT on June 26, 2008
Ike, whats your opinion on the Blob in the gulf?

Odds are it won't develop tropically...but copious amounts of rain and thunderstorms heading north out of the GOM.

jp, try looking at the last 2-3 GFS runs at 700mb. I'm talking waves, not storms.

No signpost to you then. Good enuf!
Thanks.

oh and on a note regarding California fires...

We had a home in chula Vista, CA when the huge San Diego fires happened in October about 4 years back. The fires in the northern part of San Diego were terrible - started by a lost hunter who started a bon fire (in the santa anas) hoping to have someone spot him in the mountains. Someone apparently set a few more fires in the different regions and all hell broke loose. There was a fire in the mountains not far from our home...and I watched it all day, not thinking that anything would happen to us since our home was in a HUGE neighborhood several miles from the fires and our yard and all our neighbors yards were well kept, no brush etc. I watched that fire all day and most of the night as it kept coming closer and closer. (Kept saying "when it gets to this line, we leave." It would get to that line and then we'd keep moving the lines..."when it gets to THIS line, we'll leave.) Eventually the police came through and told us to evacuate - it was a "suggestion" because they didn't know if they would be able to make it back into our area to give us a mandatory evac. We stayed and kept watch all night...

Our area had nothing to do with brush or people not cutting back their areas. And the ash that would fly would set bushes in your yard on fire (October is SERIOUSLY dry.) All our halloween decorations had to come down since they were fire hazards. It's a really humbling experience - very frightening. The ash though - the flying embers - you really can't do too much besides make sure you don't have a shake-shingle roof and sit and water your house with the hose. Our house was fine but school was cancelled for the rest of the week, businesses were closed...was a terrible scene - air quality was miserable and most people that you would speak to knew of someone who had lost their home.

I will give alot of credit to the local government though - they had Qualcomm stadium as a shelter open...brought in entertainment for people, amusements for the kids, plenty of food, water, sunblock - whatever people needed. They were having to turn locals away bringing blankets, food etc because there was SO MUCH of it.

ok - rambling...

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
408 am CDT Thursday Jun 26 2008


Short term (today and tonight)...upper air analysis shows a break
in the middle to high level ridge over the lower Mississippi River
valley and Gulf Coast. Within this weakness/shear
axis...forecasters note a good degree of deep layer moisture (from
1.7 to near 2 inch precipitable waters) as low level/surface ridge
off the southeast coast imparts south to southwest flow off the
Gulf. Considering these players along with destabilization of the
local airmass during the day today...the stage appears set for
thunderstorms to initiate on weak mesoscale boundaries/sea breeze
through the course of the day. Forecasters anticipate isolated
thunderstorms to form up along the coastal zones this morning with
an increase in coverage northward. The environment is supportive of
waterspouts as well and if your heading to the beaches this
morning...be on the lookout for these. Waterspouts should show a
dissipating trend before approaching shore.


Another item...offering up quite a challenge on the forecast plate
is temperatures...mainly in the daytime highs. With the weaker
heights aloft and deeper layer moisture...have opted to stay very
close to the mav MOS numbers for the official numbers. We did edge
slightly above the guidance in the northeast zones today...where
just may be enough upper ridging to aid in compressional warming as
sun breaks through clouds before thunderstorms bring temperatures
down. That is the challenge. Thunderstorms could be strong with a
few possibly strengthening...briefly to severe levels. Outside of
locally heavy rains and frequent lightning...storms will be capable
of producing brief strong winds and small hail. With the wet bulb
zero heights from 12.5 to 13 kft...storms that develop high
reflectivity (55+ dbz at 26+ kft) could produce penny sized hail as
well as brief damaging winds...upon core collapse in these storms.

jphurricane: That's really a shame and too bad
that your job is cracking down on internet
useage. Another company that fails to embrace
the greatness of the internet and sees it as
evil. Grrrr!!!

Anyways, have you thought of getting a I-Phone
for the internet, so that you can still see
radar data at work??