Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

California fires could reach record levels in 2008

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 21:42 GMT le 25 juin 2008

An unusually early and dangerous fire season has hit California, where at least 33 fires burning over a total of 190,000 acres are active, according to the Interagency Fire Center. The fires were sparked over the weekend when an unusually far southward-moving storm system brought numerous thunderstorms to central and northern California. Over 8,000 lightning strikes hit the region. Most of these strikes were not accompanied by rain, since a very dry atmosphere at low levels caused much of the thunderstorm rain to evaporate before reaching the surface. The lightning strikes ignited an unusual number of fires, due to exceptionally dry vegetation in California. This year, the state experienced its driest spring season (March-April-May) since record keeping began in 1895, and much of the state is in moderate to severe drought.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft on Monday, June 23, 2008, showing smoke from hundreds of wildfires sparked by lightning in California. The red regions show where the satellite's sensor detected fires burning. The smoke has created air pollution levels in excess of the federal standards for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over much of California's Central Valley. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast
With the dry season only beginning, it could be a record fire year in California. Even before last weekend's lightning storms, California had already seen an unusually large number of destructive wildfires, according to CalFire--90,000 acres had burned, compared to 42,000 acres during the same period last year. It is not unusual for large portions of the state to receive no rain at all in July and August, such as occurred last year (Figure 2). The jet stream typically moves far enough north in summer that the migrating low pressure systems that bring California most of its rain only hit the northernmost portions of the state. With high fuel levels due to a century of misguided fire suppression efforts, moderate to severe drought gripping the state, no rain in sight for months to come, and an above-normal chance of warmer than average temperatures forecast this summer for the state by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, expect a record fire season in California.

Figure 2. Observed precipitation over California during 2007. Much of the state received no rain at all during July and August, which is a common occurrence. A little bit of thunderstorm activity did make it into the easternmost portion of the state, thanks to moisture flowing north-westward from the Arizona Monsoon. However, the Sierra Mountains block this moisture from reaching the central and western portions of the state. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days. Beyond a week from now, the GFS is hinting that the region off the coast of Africa could see some development, but it is still probably too early for this too occur, despite warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the region.

Jeff Masters

San Bruno Mountain Fire - Cresting the Ridge (ajkimoto)

Photo taken as the fire crested the ridge of San Bruno Mountain

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Categories: Fire

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251. weathermanwannabe 13:58 GMT le 26 juin 2008
On the lighting issue it is also good to see many athletic programs take it very seriously; I was at a Seminoles Football game last season and they did a "lightning delay of game" which lasted about 45 minutes; You could not see a cloud in the sky from the stadium, and, people were bitching, but, I'm certain that they were keeping an eye on local radar during the game and saw something that they did not like; Good for them in terms of the safety of the players and fans.......(one of the oldtimers in front of me was saying that he had been to every game for the last 10 years an he had never seen a lighting delay when it was not raining).... Member Since: 8 août 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 6863

252. catastropheadjuster 14:00 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Ike do you think that blob in the GOM might head toward Mobile,Al and bring us rain? Also do you think it will make it over the weekend? I was just wondering, thinking about going fishing. A good friend of ours lost there son about 2yrs ago during a fishing tournament, lightning struck him they where near the Dolly Parden Bridge well that's what we call the bridge. Sheri Member Since: 24 août 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3559

253. surfmom 14:00 GMT le 26 juin 2008
geeze, look at all these lightening stories -- people, especially the horse people, think I am such a worry wart in regard to stikes --I remember my kid playing on a huge open polo field, horses with horseshoes on, lightening going off in the distance....but...... I wanted them to stop the game, but they were really mean, made fun of me and said NO. These were all bravado men (my kids 14, but he plays in adult leagues) there wasn't much I could do--I remember it was one of the longest, most horrible 30 minutes ever. I wanted to take the Patron and shake him for his stupidity (Patrons sponser and pay the players on the team and often have "god-like power and ego") I had such an migrane afterwards, I was a wreck. And we don't work w/that Patron anymore Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

255. surfmom 14:03 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Nolehead...there you are, did catch your blog post yesterday...... waiting, and more waiting. We are you located?, Aurasurf suggests the east coast??? Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

256. IKE 14:04 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Mobile extended discussion... "Long term (friday through wednesday)...the weak tropical wave continues westward across the Gulf on Friday with deep tropical moisture over the forecast area reflected in high precipitable water values near two inches. An upper jet maximum dives out of the western Canadian provinces and into the northern plains through Saturday evolving into a longwave trough over the eastern states...with a surface low moving across the Great Lakes on Friday then evolving into a slow moving occluded system over Quebec on Sunday. While a surface ridge over the northern Gulf maintains a light onshore flow...a weakening front associated with the surface low slowly moves southward into the southeast states...eventually moving through the forecast area on Monday. The pattern supports staying with good chance to likely probability of precipitation through Sunday for the mainly daytime and early evening convection...then chance probability of precipitation for Monday as the weakening front moves through. Chance probability of precipitation continue for the remainder of the forecast as the front lingers near the coast and dissipates while a predominately light onshore flow resumes. Temperatures will be near seasonable levels through the period.".................. 50% chance of rain today...and tomorrow...60% on Saturday, in Mobile,AL. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

258. Nolehead 14:05 GMT le 26 juin 2008
surfmom, up here in Pensacola. Yeah just waiting and waiting...too much gas $ to hit the east coast right now...will wait till there's an actuall storm pushing something.. Member Since: 3 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1919

259. TheWeatherMan504 14:07 GMT le 26 juin 2008
250. Tazmanian 1:58 PM GMT on June 26, 2008 talk about being vary rude look what aquak9 said in this blog that was not vary nic at all Link Taz i got your back. Member Since: 18 mai 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1041

260. surfmom 14:08 GMT le 26 juin 2008
You get some gorgeous waves up there, never been to your beaches, but have seen some gorgeous pictures of surfing -- the only thing that scares me about your homebeaches are the rip tides, your rips make ours look like childs play Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

261. TheWeatherMan504 14:08 GMT le 26 juin 2008
surfmom look at 245 Member Since: 18 mai 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1041

262. Nolehead 14:10 GMT le 26 juin 2008
lol, yeah they say if you can surf the GOM you can surf anywhere....i love the east coast waves..they are so easy to ride..we have WAY too many close-outs!! yeah our beaches are awsome!! white sugar sands, even after gees lost count of how many storms we have had..lol Member Since: 3 juin 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1919

263. surfmom 14:12 GMT le 26 juin 2008
so nice to have a day off from working the barn --jumping out for a run, before that blob out there gets any closer, doesn't look like I am going to get a paddle in today (boohoo) but I'll take the rain in exchange. Got to get groceries today any way --so I guess it works, BBL Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

264. TampaSpin 14:13 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Pressure at several bouys in the GOM is down as much as 2MB since the last 24 hours....have to see if the pressures keep falling.... Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

265. nash28 14:13 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Taz. Take a pill. Aqua is right. Member Since: 11 juillet 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972

266. TampaSpin 14:15 GMT le 26 juin 2008
265. nash28 10:13 AM EDT on June 26, 2008 Taz. Take a pill. Aqua is right. Nash i like you but, what are you saying. Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

267. surfmom 14:15 GMT le 26 juin 2008
caught it, it's the fuel prices making also adding to those juice prices. also there are less and less orange groves left anymore ( due to the insane building that went on) When we first moved here I could bike to an orange stand and get it cheap and muy fresco....now that's just a past memory Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

268. surfmom 14:19 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Thank you regarding the word close outs. Sometimes here on the Gulf I loose all my confidence as a surfer --pearling after pearling --board just pitching --then I take a trip over to the other side and I'm like "I can surf, I can really surf...yoooo I can even walk the board" (longboarder) The power of the push in the Atlantic makes such a difference (even on those 2/3ft waves - which at 50 years old is a pleasure - less crash and burn)...eekkk am I that old....only in number NOT in spirit Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

270. NEwxguy 14:21 GMT le 26 juin 2008
plagiarism Didn't see this coming,where did this come from? Member Since: 6 septembre 2007 Posts: 820 Comments: 13283

271. LSU 14:21 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Did any of you even go to that site and look at the tropical discussion? It's a word for word copy, even down to the point where we're told there won't be another blog this week. There is 0 chance that the blogger wrote that himself. Member Since: 19 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 100

272. TampaSpin 14:22 GMT le 26 juin 2008
269. jphurricane2006 10:20 AM EDT on June 26, 2008 Who did this....?? Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

274. surfmom 14:22 GMT le 26 juin 2008
OK amigos - I am off now (embarrassed about my age LOL) got to get that run in so that I don't look my number. Please -- everyone -- NO THROWING SAND IN THE SANDBOX TODAY - Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

275. IKE 14:24 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Good luck between you mom and husband surfmom! Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

276. IKE 14:25 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Shear decreasing and 10 knots near the north-central GOM.... CIMSS 1200UTC Shear Map Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

277. pspredicts 14:26 GMT le 26 juin 2008
surf mom you look pretty good !

279. IKE 14:27 GMT le 26 juin 2008
277. pspredicts 9:26 AM CDT on June 26, 2008 surf mom you look pretty good ! Hey now.....lol....... Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

280. stormkat 14:28 GMT le 26 juin 2008
good morning guys and gals just checking in to let you know i have the latest data that i reviewed and we are looking at the middle part of july before we have to even think about something forming in the tropics...it would not surprise me if we had another dull season...dr gray will definitely revise his forecast down and you guys will see a major change...ill be back around or a few days before july 15...you all have a nice day ill be watching but you can relax for now...stormkat Member Since: 9 mai 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 335

281. IKE 14:30 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Another dull season? Two cat 5's is dull? Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

282. LSU 14:30 GMT le 26 juin 2008
I can't believe you're still arguing this. Want proof? Go to Crown Weather and read the Tropical Discussion. Now go read the blog. Word for word. Member Since: 19 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 100

283. IKE 14:30 GMT le 26 juin 2008
282. LSU 9:30 AM CDT on June 26, 2008 I can't believe you're still arguing this. Want proof? Go to Crown Weather and read the Tropical Discussion. Now go read the blog. Word for word. What blog???? Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

284. pspredicts 14:31 GMT le 26 juin 2008
the blob in the gulf seems to be getting strong appears to circulation around 90 and 25

285. catastropheadjuster 14:31 GMT le 26 juin 2008
JP- I checked it out to, and Aquak is right. Member Since: 24 août 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3559

286. TampaSpin 14:32 GMT le 26 juin 2008
284. pspredicts 10:31 AM EDT on June 26, 2008 the blob in the gulf seems to be getting strong appears to circulation around 90 and 25 I to am watching the blob but, i don't see anything happening. Shear is too high currently but, strange things have happened before. Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

287. all4hurricanes 14:32 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Two systems !!! Notice when DR. Masters says there are no threat areas to discuss we blog all day about invests and African waves Member Since: 29 Mars 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2236

288. extreme236 14:34 GMT le 26 juin 2008
I don't know what all the fighting is about over this blog...its clear it was plagiarized, I read it myself and checked the CrownWeather site and there is no doubt about it. Word for word copied. I'm not sure why Taz went ballistic about it though... Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

289. extreme236 14:35 GMT le 26 juin 2008
The SSD site has that second area of disturbed weather in the EPAC labled as 95E...not on the Navy site though. Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

290. IKE 14:35 GMT le 26 juin 2008
288. extreme236 9:34 AM CDT on June 26, 2008 I don't know what all the fighting is about over this blog...its clear it was plagiarized, I read it myself and checked the CrownWeather site and there is no doubt about it. Word for word copied. I'm not sure why Taz went ballistic about it though... What blog? 2nd request? Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

291. MissBennet 14:36 GMT le 26 juin 2008
228. BajaALemt Could you post the link to that article... I can't find it and I need a good laugh this morning.

292. LSU 14:37 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Link Blog from a few pages back. Member Since: 19 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 100

293. captainhunter 14:37 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Morning everyone. Don't get me wrong, we need the rain here in the panhandle and I'll certainly take it but does anyone else notice that it always seems to happen on the weekend? Hurricane landfalls too for that matter! LOL Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 428

294. Tazmanian 14:38 GMT le 26 juin 2008
i will take back evere thing about what i said about aquak9 but 1st of all i want proof that means start showing me links Please Member Since: 21 mai 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 111632

295. IKE 14:38 GMT le 26 juin 2008
292. LSU 9:37 AM CDT on June 26, 2008 Link Blog from a few pages back. Wrong link. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

296. extreme236 14:38 GMT le 26 juin 2008
290. IKE 2:35 PM GMT on June 26, 2008 Hide this comment. 288. extreme236 9:34 AM CDT on June 26, 2008 I don't know what all the fighting is about over this blog...its clear it was plagiarized, I read it myself and checked the CrownWeather site and there is no doubt about it. Word for word copied. I'm not sure why Taz went ballistic about it though... What blog? 2nd request? That blog post by Tropicaldiscussion Member Since: 2 août 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

297. all4hurricanes 14:40 GMT le 26 juin 2008
This is also from Crown Weather now I'm giving credit, happy everyone 12-99% chance of development the data no longer contradicts its forming Member Since: 29 Mars 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2236

298. TheWeatherMan504 14:41 GMT le 26 juin 2008
im sorry aqua i was wrong. Lets get back yo the tropics. Member Since: 18 mai 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 1041

299. crownwx 14:41 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Taz: I am the owner, operator and webmaster of Crown Weather Services. Here is the link you asked for....proof: Link Member Since: 27 décembre 2004 Posts: 3 Comments: 207

300. LSU 14:41 GMT le 26 juin 2008
My apologies above, I've corrected the link. Member Since: 19 juillet 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 100

301. crownwx 14:44 GMT le 26 juin 2008
And I agree....back to discussing the tropics!!...lol. Member Since: 27 décembre 2004 Posts: 3 Comments: 207

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