Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

California fires could reach record levels in 2008

Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 21:42 GMT le 25 juin 2008

An unusually early and dangerous fire season has hit California, where at least 33 fires burning over a total of 190,000 acres are active, according to the Interagency Fire Center. The fires were sparked over the weekend when an unusually far southward-moving storm system brought numerous thunderstorms to central and northern California. Over 8,000 lightning strikes hit the region. Most of these strikes were not accompanied by rain, since a very dry atmosphere at low levels caused much of the thunderstorm rain to evaporate before reaching the surface. The lightning strikes ignited an unusual number of fires, due to exceptionally dry vegetation in California. This year, the state experienced its driest spring season (March-April-May) since record keeping began in 1895, and much of the state is in moderate to severe drought.

Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft on Monday, June 23, 2008, showing smoke from hundreds of wildfires sparked by lightning in California. The red regions show where the satellite's sensor detected fires burning. The smoke has created air pollution levels in excess of the federal standards for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over much of California's Central Valley. Image credit: NASA.

The forecast
With the dry season only beginning, it could be a record fire year in California. Even before last weekend's lightning storms, California had already seen an unusually large number of destructive wildfires, according to CalFire--90,000 acres had burned, compared to 42,000 acres during the same period last year. It is not unusual for large portions of the state to receive no rain at all in July and August, such as occurred last year (Figure 2). The jet stream typically moves far enough north in summer that the migrating low pressure systems that bring California most of its rain only hit the northernmost portions of the state. With high fuel levels due to a century of misguided fire suppression efforts, moderate to severe drought gripping the state, no rain in sight for months to come, and an above-normal chance of warmer than average temperatures forecast this summer for the state by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, expect a record fire season in California.

Figure 2. Observed precipitation over California during 2007. Much of the state received no rain at all during July and August, which is a common occurrence. A little bit of thunderstorm activity did make it into the easternmost portion of the state, thanks to moisture flowing north-westward from the Arizona Monsoon. However, the Sierra Mountains block this moisture from reaching the central and western portions of the state. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropics
It's quiet in the tropical Atlantic. There are no threat areas to discuss, and none of the models are forecasting tropical storm formation in the next seven days. Beyond a week from now, the GFS is hinting that the region off the coast of Africa could see some development, but it is still probably too early for this too occur, despite warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the region.

Jeff Masters

San Bruno Mountain Fire - Cresting the Ridge (ajkimoto)

Photo taken as the fire crested the ridge of San Bruno Mountain

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351. TerraNova 16:50 GMT le 26 juin 2008
350. clwstmchasr 11:47 AM EST on June 26, 2008 Climatology tells you when conditions in a region of the basin normally become conductive towards tropical cyclogenesis. In certain cases conditions have become favorable before the time of year which climatology indicates, Bertha being an example for that; the current setup in the Eastern Atlantic being another. Regardless of what climatology says, the east is favorable for development at the moment. Member Since: 30 juillet 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

352. Drakoen 16:51 GMT le 26 juin 2008
GFS 84hr 700hpa winds + AEJ axes. You can see the wave axis will be over Nigeria with a good amount of potential vorticity. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012

353. FLWeatherFreak91 16:58 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Looks like we are in for a squeeze play this afternoon here in Pinellas County. Storms are coming at us from the S,SW,E and SE. Been real rainy since last Saturday. Yeah. We're in for some Mega-Wx today Member Since: 1 décembre 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3516

356. NEwxguy 17:07 GMT le 26 juin 2008
cabletv boxes are very sensitive also,have lost a couple due to storms. Member Since: 6 septembre 2007 Posts: 820 Comments: 13282

358. Stormchaser2007 17:11 GMT le 26 juin 2008
354. Why do you say that? Everything points to E.Atl development in the coming week. Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15295

359. FLWeatherFreak91 17:11 GMT le 26 juin 2008
What make jp? Oregon? Member Since: 1 décembre 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3516

360. surfmom 17:14 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Whew, just in from my run --ahhh to be out in such exciting weather and to have it perfectly timed. When I had three miles left on the return, I felt the air cool and was surrounded by dark ominous fast moving clouds. The Gulf was this incredible blue,green,aZure,teal color, the air is electic, it was a "buzz" run. It's fun to look at the radar see it coming in and then get the mileage in before it hits. Ensures a focused fast paced run. could my barometer be reading 30.17???? Sarasota,SWFL Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

361. Floodman 17:14 GMT le 26 juin 2008
356. NEwxguy 355. leftovers Gotta watch out for EM pulse type conditions...we have satellite, and haven't had any problems so far knocks on wood As for modems, I haven't used a modem in years, but I've seen cards that have burnt to the PCI bus, and that calls for a new motherboard; that can run into a few dollars Member Since: 2 août 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9919

363. surfmom 17:15 GMT le 26 juin 2008
First big rumble of thunder...LOL I really nailed it perfectly today. Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

364. IKE 17:16 GMT le 26 juin 2008
It's already thundering at my house......... Florida panhandle Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

365. IKE 17:17 GMT le 26 juin 2008
363. surfmom 12:15 PM CDT on June 26, 2008 First big rumble of thunder...LOL I really nailed it perfectly today. Same here! LOL. Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

367. FLWeatherFreak91 17:17 GMT le 26 juin 2008
#360. Yeah, I think I'm gonna run down to the beach in N Pinellas (howard Park) to watch these Storms move in. And I'm at 30.12 here in Odessa. Member Since: 1 décembre 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3516

368. RMM34667 17:17 GMT le 26 juin 2008
353. FLWeatherFreak91 4:58 PM GMT on June 26, 2008 Looks like we are in for a squeeze play this afternoon here in Pinellas County. Storms are coming at us from the S,SW,E and SE. Been real rainy since last Saturday. Yeah. We're in for some Mega-Wx today Do you think we will see sever weather in Tampa this afternoon? Member Since: 7 septembre 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 912

369. surfmom 17:20 GMT le 26 juin 2008
hurricane soup, hurricane soup, the gulf feels like hurricane soup. Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

370. FLWeatherFreak91 17:23 GMT le 26 juin 2008
#353 Yessir, I am willing to bet we'll have some pretty heavy stuff come through. The axis of instability in the Gulf is about to cross Tampa from the South and while that happens the West and East coast sea breezes will also be colliding right over us. Check out the radar, it's already developing Member Since: 1 décembre 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3516

371. surfmom 17:25 GMT le 26 juin 2008
just love watching these storm roll in - see them on the radar and then go to a safe spot to watch or experience them. MY Young buck is tied to his computers today, would love a good thunder/light show and good drenching rain Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

372. FLWeatherFreak91 17:25 GMT le 26 juin 2008
You know, i wouldn't be surprised if that cell in East Manatee will get a warning with it coming here in a sec.... the hail is indicated at .75" and that Storm is producing some heavy downdrafts as well. Member Since: 1 décembre 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3516

373. surfmom 17:26 GMT le 26 juin 2008
FLweathrfrk....just too cool - I think I have to admit I have become a weather junkie. I'll never watch TV again LOL Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

374. surfmom 17:29 GMT le 26 juin 2008
messy, crumb dropping, drink spilling,non-dishing washing males in my kitchen....I'm on lurk mode.............bbl Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

375. OSUWXGUY 17:30 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Wave watching over Africa this afternoon... If you follow the link below you can see a vigorous tropical wave moving through western Africa with two larger scale low level circulations and a couple other smaller mesovortices. Just click on sector 5 or 2 to see in more detail. >Link While this wave looks quite promising, the SSTs off of Africa are generally only favorable south of the Cape Verde Islands. I would expect a low to move off the coast in about 36 hours. How far south the dominant circulation is will determine if development will occur near the coast. If it is farther north it could still occur with this wave/low...but only several 3-5 days from now as it moves east and eventually reaches warmer water. Link

376. surfmom 17:32 GMT le 26 juin 2008
barometer now 30.19 and rising SRQ/SWFL/Gomex Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

377. Drakoen 17:37 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Another tropical wave with a circulation: ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN AFRICA AND IS NOW ALONG 18W S OF 18N. INITIAL ESTIMATES HAVE THE WAVE MOVING W AT 15-20 KTS. UPPER AIR DATA FROM DAKAR DEPICT A ENE-SE WIND SHIFT AT 850 MB SUGGESTING THAT THE WAVE PASSED THE STATION THIS MORNING. BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW HAS DISPLACED ASSOCIATED CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 22W. Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012

378. IKE 17:40 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Thunderstorm and down to 71.8 degrees at my house........ Member Since: 9 juin 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37070

379. presslord 17:55 GMT le 26 juin 2008
jp...366...exactly...this is as much art as science...an attempt to "...approximate chaos..." Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10407

380. stormlvr 17:56 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Climo is the base in forecasting almost like a weather "god". If all else fails, go with climo. The chances of being right are very high. You want to spot a forecaster--watch for the bloggers most reluctant to go against it LOL. However, records are set every day some where and extremes are what drew me to weather so many years ago. There are valid reasons as already stated by several bloggers to go against climo in the eastern atlantic this year. I like the odds for development east of 60W for approximately 2 weeks starting with the 4th Jul weekend. Several waves should move off the coast and at least one should be able to maintain a low level trajectory across the CATL. Really liked the look of a wave earlier in June and conditions will only be more favorable now(Climo again:). Will also be interesting to see how the pattern evolves along the east coast particularly the southern end of the trof for a week or so around the 4th. Nothing of note on the models at this time but will be watching the E. Gulf-SW Atl-W Car. Member Since: 12 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 323

381. stormdude77 17:56 GMT le 26 juin 2008
The GFS is showing a very active ''wave train'', for at least the next two weeks (which seems reasonable; as the MJO will be in that vicinity)...

382. presslord 17:59 GMT le 26 juin 2008
an old college dorm mate of mine, David Stooksbury, is now the climatologist for the state of Georgia....he's done some great interviews on the art and science of climatology v meteorology...google him...he's a pretty cool guy... Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10407

383. CaneAddict 18:12 GMT le 26 juin 2008
TROPICAL WAVES... A NEW TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN AFRICA AND IS NOW ALONG 18W S OF 18N. INITIAL ESTIMATES HAVE THE WAVE MOVING W AT 15-20 KTS. UPPER AIR DATA FROM DAKAR DEPICT A ENE-SE WIND SHIFT AT 850 MB SUGGESTING THAT THE WAVE PASSED THE STATION THIS MORNING. BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW HAS DISPLACED ASSOCIATED CONVECTION W OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 22W I'm going to be watching this wave closely for possible tropical development over the next few days....i believe this could possibly evolve into our next tropical depression. Member Since: 5 octobre 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 2151

384. JRRP 18:14 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Member Since: 16 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4358

385. Drakoen 18:16 GMT le 26 juin 2008
The wave of the African coast and the circulation over Mali are unlikely to develop, Member Since: 28 octobre 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29012

386. TampaSpin 18:16 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Gang visible satel shows some level of lower level spin....due West of Naples about 300 miles out. Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

387. Stormchaser2007 18:16 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Shear decreasing near the wave.... Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15295

388. TampaSpin 18:22 GMT le 26 juin 2008
This is the bouy just off Naples Conditions at 42023 as of (12:59 pm EDT) 1659 GMT on 06/26/2008: Unit of Measure: English Metric Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true ) Wind Speed (WSPD): 3.0 m/s Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1019.5 mb Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -2.3 mb ( Falling ) Air Temperature (ATMP): 25.8 °C Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

389. surfmom 18:24 GMT le 26 juin 2008
#379 - LOL my fav. quote - approx. chaos! lol --the meaning of life Member Since: 18 juillet 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26538

390. TampaSpin 18:29 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

391. TerraNova 18:30 GMT le 26 juin 2008
386. TampaSpin 1:16 PM EST on June 26, 2008 Gang visible satel shows some level of lower level spin....due West of Naples about 300 miles out. I see a swirl near 26N -84 W...but it's so faint I'm not even completely sure it's spinning. Buoy air pressure tendency graph shows falling pressures W of Key West, but only two stations are reporting significant drops. Member Since: 30 juillet 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4058

392. presslord 18:31 GMT le 26 juin 2008
surfmom...as our younguns are moving (being pushed ) out of the nest, things are becoming a bit less chaotic... Member Since: 13 août 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10407

393. TampaSpin 18:32 GMT le 26 juin 2008
391. TerraNova 2:30 PM EDT on June 26, 2008 Terra that is the exact corrd. i was referring to ......it may not do anything but, just an observation. Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

394. catastropheadjuster 18:35 GMT le 26 juin 2008
I really hate to get off the subject but i need a little help please. How do i send a threatning and nasty e-mail to him that someone sent me? It's all about that plagerism stuff that went on this morning. Can someone tell me how please? Sheri Member Since: 24 août 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3559

397. Cavin Rawlins 18:37 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Tropical Update (Updated) Member Since: 24 juillet 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076

398. TampaSpin 18:39 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Terra convection is really gathering at that spin location the last 2 updated satellite pics... Member Since: 2 septembre 2007 Posts: 176 Comments: 19767

399. Stormchaser2007 18:39 GMT le 26 juin 2008
JP whats the fools handle? Member Since: 9 juin 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15295

400. Patrap 18:39 GMT le 26 juin 2008
Real Boomer here right now..some small pea size hail..a lil Gusty,One Transformer went "Pow" NEXRAD Radar New Orleans, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI Link Member Since: 3 juillet 2005 Posts: 377 Comments: 112974

401. catastropheadjuster 18:40 GMT le 26 juin 2008
JP you got that right, he threaten to kill me. amost the other nasty stuff he said. Sheri Member Since: 24 août 2006 Posts: 21 Comments: 3559

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